QRC3288

Yea, and they're also upgrading A333s to 35Gs too, don't forget. I just think CX is drawing its line in the sand at Australia. They're defending the market even if it means a price war. As folks have alluded to above though, it is a brutal fight given mainland China's open skies agreement with Australia...and Hong Kong's lack of one.

Not to mention, the utterly horrendous delays at mainland Chinese airports mean travelers can't look forward to connecting...given the odds of making your connection are crap when you fly out from a mainland airport. If I were living in mainland China, I'd definitely choose to fly direct because at least if my flight is delayed, it's my ONLY flight. If my PVG-HKG sector is delayed prior to my HKG-MEL sector, missing the second sector makes my trip a lot more complicated.

I'm pretty sure CX fought tooth and nail to avoid having open skies between HK and Australia, so I find it both ironic and sweet justice that CX is getting its yields destroyed by the neighbors up north who seem to be flying to Oz from every Chinese city these days. HK travelers to Oz have suffered for way too long with absurd prices and CX/Swire is largely to blame.

sxc

I'm not sure who CX is fighting against if you're looking at O/D traffic (which seems to be the case since ex-HK fares have dropped). QF capacity is low and can't get much lower. VA only flies from one port so CX can selectively drop prices against MEL (they haven't). So they're really fighting against their own over capacity.

Arbeysix

[QUOTE i dont even dare guess how much op ups take places from ultra cheepo Y.fare... so its not sustainable.[/QUOTE]

Actually my recent experience on MEL when in Y has been the opposite. Overcapacity = empty seats = no op up.

Separately, folks should bear in mind that the 77Ws can uplift significant freight out of Aus and that will have an impact on economics + comparative advantage over competitors.

Kachjc

CX asked to increase the bilateral to 110
QF opposed it
QF is opposed to any new rights for CX

QF plays 2 games, one in the media and one behind the scenes

now that HX is in the game, CX can't be bothered negotiating for more- there is no gain for them

sxc

Interestingly, as we talk about the cheap J fares to Australia, it seems like CX has raised their bottom line to $32k now. The $23k fares seem to be gone.

QF still has fares at $20k.

fakecd

ex tpe was 16k last i.checked still.

besides i have no reason to fly cx if price aint right

sxc

At $23k, a lot of the ex-asia fares to Australia were rendered useless/not worthwhile. Although $16k vs $23k is still good.

$16k vs $20k for QF makes ex-TPE a lot more marginal.

fakecd

i still paid 23k on qf.recently. reason is they had double status promotion and i structured hkg-bne-syd-wlg-akl-syd-bne-hkg and attained 970 status.credit just shy of 1200 status.credits needed for platinum (OW emerald) renewal

cx probably gives just about 120 sc....

Ausriver

If you flew J with QF, that would be around 215 cp..... no where near 970. Been with MPC for ten years and reside in Australia, I always wondered why QF is so much easier to get some status. A long haul J trip will almost get you GO status if you planed right.

I wonder if CX would also run some double status promotion to make us book more than CX.

bart simpson

Also that long haul routes have higher priority to depart when delays occur.