Don't be so sure. SYD has a large pilot base, all A330 rated, and retraining them to 777 would be expensive. With current labour disputes it would also be very damaging by preventing necessary pilots being trained to crew any aircraft back in Hong Kong.

If it goes 4x777 I doubt it'll be in the near future, anyway.

It will be 3x daily 77W in about 8 months time so not much further to get to 4x daily 77W. If anything, the A330s become an outlier.

I suppose those pilots could fly sectors like HKG-CNS, HKG-ADL...

I don't think the pilot base matters as much as youre saying possibly, because its apparently a very easy transition from A330 to a350. Although this might sound like an Airbus marketing pitch, the training regimen from A330 to A350 does indeed seem brief and supports what Airbus marketed, and there is a lot of commonality. A CX first officer was describing it to me recently - he was A330/340 for years, and is now A350 - and it kinda backs up what Airbus has been saying for a while in their pitch to sell the plane to airlines with large a330 fleet. CX has already been moving A330 pilots over to the A350 frame. You're right in that those guys are currently HK based. But I wonder if CX wouldn't be opposed to those guys rating on A350 given the significantly easier transition to another Airbus frame (vs Boeing).

Given CX is saying they intend to transition Australia to mainly A350, I don't think the pilot issue would stop CX from making Sydney a 777 market. SYD seems unique for CX in that it can't take more flights so their only way to add seats is fly bigger / denser planes. Those pilots can easily hop to MEL or BNE.

(Also unrelated, Virgin Australia is launching somewhere in Australia to Hong Kong "mid-2017")

The 330 to 350 transition is indeed easier than 777 though it still takes more than 2 weeks. But a few things to consider are:

1) They can't kick Airbus pilots off the SYD base and bring in new guys from elsewhere to fly a SYD 777 base. Contractually they'd have to first train the SYD guys who'd want to stay in SYD and move over to the 777 (which would be almost everyone). $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

2) Closing the SYD base entirely to avoid #1 won't happen as they'd have to return the pilots to HKG earning significantly more than they do in Australia, while the pilots would never forgive the company for the rest of their careers. So CX won't be doing that.

I was just saying it isn't a simple solution if CX converts the last service to 777, marooning dozens of expensive assets in SYD. They may very well do that just not in the immediate future until training has been sorted.

Once the HK pilots drop the training ban and things return to normal, if the SYD pilots have not yet been converted to 350 I 100% expect it to become 4x777 and the pilots to be trained for it.

Deadheading SYD pilots around is very expensive too. Besides, Adelaide based guys fly ADL-HKG and Brisbane based guys are capable of continuing to fly HKG-CNS as they do today.

insightful post. Thanks.

Would KA be able to start service to Australia? to "avoid" the 70 flight limit.

No. 70 applies to all HK-registered carriers. So HX is "crowded out"

I've been flying SYD-HKG about 100 times for the last 3 years. Was able to have a whole row to me only once. maybe 5 out of 100 times I was able to have an empty seat next to me.. Loading between SYD-HKG is very very very full every time. Even though all flights changed to 77W, it wouldn't be able able to meet the demand very soon.

It will be interesting to see what solution CX will have for Australia market.

Ausriver, not to say you're wrong, but I can see loading data for the last week. More than half the flights went out with scores of economy seats open. I recently traveled down there and it was the same situation. QF isn't fully to SYD either, I can see their loading data. Maybe something is softening in the market just recently or this is just an aberation.

I will say this. CX most definitely fills SYD flights with some connection traffic, which gives them a nice advantage over QF on the route.

I was talking to another FTer by PM (if you wish to identify yourself pls do so)

Was wondering why VA chose MEL over SYD for first VA HKG flight. SYD:
- had four frequencies, two of then 77Gs, compared to MEL's three (one) (seasonal)
- QF driving a 744 from SYD vs a A333 from MEL
- CAN also have CZ flying a A380 whale to SYD

I was travelling CX138 on 15th Feb and CX101 on 19th Feb.

15th Feb was the one I managed to get three seats together at the middle section of row 43. However, apart from row 43, each of the 3 seats would have 2 pax sitting there, so no one could really lie down, PEY was 30 out of 32 according to SP, J was actually full according to expertflyer, so loading is still well over 70%.

19th Feb flight was full in Y, PEY and J.

My wife and her brother flied out on CX110 on 13th Feb, wife GO, op-up from PEY to J, brother in law SL remained at 59C reported only one seat in whole Y empty, couple of empty seats in J though.

And this is one of the lowest season for SYD-HKG being just after Chinese new year, basically no Chinese tourists in or out, loading was like 100%, 99% and 75%

By the way, I am also very interested in seeing the actual loading data. At the moment I would only be able to get a relatively accurate loading data according to seat map right before flight, which wouldn't have helped anything anyway, are there any smarter way of doing that? Especially if we could get loading data few days before flight, would help a lot with picking the best flight with highest op-up possibilities.

If you know anyone working at CX, sure...(they can see actual loads if I'm not mistaken by attempting to book ID travel)

But generally for CX I feel that the seat map through EF is highly accurate right before departure. It's not always the case for other airlines!

QF deploys 744 also from MEL but QF has 2 daily flights from SYD (1 744+ 1 A333)

http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ong...lications.aspx

The traffic data and loading up to 1H 2016 can be checked through the above link. The loading for CX and hong kong flight are pretty good. (about 90% for CX and 87% for Hong Kong flight).

unfortunately I probably cannot share much of this info here, but have sent you a PM.