Singapore - Hong Kong travel bubble

Old Nov 21, 2020, 10:37 pm
  #166  
 
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71 cases today Nov 22 highest in 3 months. considering they are yet to tighten social distance manner in a meaningful way (like they did mid July to contain outbreak) i dont see this case number to flatten let alone decline within next 7 days. if so trailing 7 day average infection (assuming largely unrelated local cases based in shear number) will remain high thus there is zero chance bubble starts in 2 wk time, zilch.

i would say another 2wk extension is all but guranteed affair so earliest even if by miracle HK case start to drop so quick, for bubble to start december 20th and thats still shaky ground (the hk govt policy was slow to relax yet super quick to tighten). so i doubt anyone can reliably depend on bubble for travel

more likely scenario, is start mid Jan 21, so you may rebook to those low season if you are so desperate to travel
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Old Nov 22, 2020, 1:30 am
  #167  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
"The travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore, initially set to launch on Sunday, is set to be postponed for two weeks with the former facing more than 90 confirmed and preliminary Covid-19 cases, continuing an alarming trend of a fresh surge in infections.'

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...oms-close-live

Edit 17:04: Secretary of Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau confirmed the suspension [NowTV news flash]
Singapore has a different view.
No date for restart is announced. SG-HK will announce early December when flights will restart: That sounds more reasonable.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ea...kong-postponed
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Old Nov 22, 2020, 1:37 am
  #168  
 
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From Facebook. At the HK airport. Where is the Green Peace? lol
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Old Nov 22, 2020, 7:02 am
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Well you can cancel, back into original form of payment.

So youre trying to hold CX to their original fare for a future bubble flight - thats harder.
Yep, cancellation is the obvious conclusion - I've been too spoiled by Qatar Airways who do offer this (when they cancel a flight) along with all their other very generous flexible offers such as changes of destination and giving a 10% bonus when you take a credit rather than a refund.

I don't think that Cathay needs my money, they're so far in a hole anyway, but seems they should be trying to build a bit of goodwill on these flights and "rewarding" those who have been willing to take the risk and book early. I leapt right in to get a good fare for sure, I guess they presume that they can resell the tickets for more, e.g. on my flight (pre cancellation) the economy tickets had gone from HKD4000 to over HKD8000 - asking those people to pay more is going to lead to some negative publicity (I hope!), especially for those on the first flights who will presumably have already paid for at least the first HK test that they can't get back.

Anyway, I'm not going to worry about it, is a first world problem, for the 20k HKD that Cathay is looking for on this flight by only selling CDJ tickets Qatar will fly me to Europe (or the Maldives), but alas can't avoid my quarantine upon return :P
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Old Nov 23, 2020, 4:28 pm
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Originally Posted by littlevoices
I don't think that Cathay needs my money, they're so far in a hole anyway, but seems they should be trying to build a bit of goodwill on these flights and "rewarding" those who have been willing to take the risk and book early. I leapt right in to get a good fare for sure, I guess they presume that they can resell the tickets for more, e.g. on my flight (pre cancellation) the economy tickets had gone from HKD4000 to over HKD8000
So the SCMP reports that Cathay had sold out all the flights, and was going to be getting 6% of its revenue from the bubble, they won't miss my cheap I class ticket for sure...
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...ngapore-travel
Originally Posted by SCMP
The demand on our Singapore travel bubble flights is overwhelming, Ronald Lam Siu-por, Cathays executive director, said. In the next few weeks our flights are pretty much full. There is also a quota of 200 passengers per flight due to the limited capacity and high demand, our flights are pretty much sold out in the next few weeks.

"Analysts say route estimated to be worth HK$93 million in revenue to Cathay"
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Old Nov 24, 2020, 7:27 pm
  #171  
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Was chatting with some financier I trust . The Travel Bubble was a ray of light and hope.
As we all know, cargo alone cannot sustain CX.
Pax comparison with the second half of 2019 are misleading, as pax traffic was disturbed by the protests (November 2019 was 9% les than November 2018).
Current pax traffic is 1% of the past. It is extremely unlikely that it can reach 10% in six to twelve months.
Singapore bubble was hope for a way forward. Those hopes have faded. The hope for a quick China opening has faded too. An optimistic view is that vaccines won't be sufficiently widespread and effective before a year. Unless CX gets a big bailout in the months/year to come, something drastic might happen.

Last edited by brunos; Nov 25, 2020 at 3:14 am Reason: mistyped weeks/months
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Old Nov 24, 2020, 10:45 pm
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Originally Posted by brunos
Was chatting with some financier I trust . The Travel Bubble was a ray of light and hope.
As we all know, cargo alone cannot sustain CX.
Pax comparison with the second half of 2019 are misleading, as pax traffic was disturbed by the protests (November 2019 was 9% les than November 2018).
Current pax traffic is 1% of the past. It is extremely unlikely that it can reach 10% in six to twelve months.
Singapore bubble was hope for a way forward. Those hopes have faded. The hope for a quick China opening has faded too. An optimistic view is that vaccines won't be sufficiently widespread and effective before a year. Unless CX gets a big bailout in the weeks/months to come, something drastic might happen.
Therefore CX got the HKSAR government's funds. As of Oct 31 this year, CX had 33.3 billion HKD cash, and their monthly cash burn rate is around 1.0-1.5 billion. You can do the math, and it is easy to tell that CX does not need another major capital restructure by the end of 2021.
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Old Nov 25, 2020, 3:36 am
  #173  
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Originally Posted by Reply1984
Therefore CX got the HKSAR government's funds. As of Oct 31 this year, CX had 33.3 billion HKD cash, and their monthly cash burn rate is around 1.0-1.5 billion. You can do the math, and it is easy to tell that CX does not need another major capital restructure by the end of 2021.
Indeed, I mistyped "weeks/months" and should have been "months/year". Apologies.
.
We are all aware that CX got a big HKD31b bailout in June that should help them for quite a while.
This thread is not the place for a financial analyst discussion.
But I do understand why the financier I talked with find the prospects bleaker since the Bubble postponement (which was announced post the Analysts briefing of 20 November).
CX can draw on 33b of available liquidity (cash plus lines of credit). It seems to also have some 95b of debt (CX does not provide detailed Q3 or monthly information and leases can be treated in different ways)..
The monthly cash burn due to operations is 1.5-2b. It will probably go down based on CX assumptions, but in the short run there are severance pays and other restructuring costs. The cash outflow will increase before it goes down.
Let's for a moment assume that the 2021 management forecasts of pax traffic 25/50% are overly optimistic and become actually 10/20%. There is a scenario where lenders will not be willing to renew loans if future prospects are bleak.

With few exceptions (China) all airlines are facing the need for further assistance unless vaccines turn out as saviors.
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Old Nov 29, 2020, 2:54 am
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all local hk school shut for face to face class for rest of the year.
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...abChangeable=0

those who still dreaming bubble will start in december need a serious reality check. one of my colleague booked on bubble flight, CX called her rebooked her to normal CX flight and told her "u can still fly but subject to quarantine both sides"
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Old Nov 29, 2020, 8:22 pm
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Given the number of daily cases with no epidemiological links, the chance of the bubble resuming in December is close to none... At the current level, they will need 6 days of 0 linked cases, before they will resume the bubble 2 weeks after.. Wishful thinking... Probably January at the earliest if it will still happen....
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Old Dec 1, 2020, 12:23 am
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The HK-Singapore Travel Bubble has officially been postponed to 2021, per the HK Government's latest announcements.

There goes the travel plans for those hoping to spend Xmas abroad...
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Old Dec 1, 2020, 3:27 am
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Originally Posted by freakinflyer001
The HK-Singapore Travel Bubble has officially been postponed to 2021, per the HK Government's latest announcements.

There goes the travel plans for those hoping to spend Xmas abroad...
The travel bubble that would have involved rigorous Covid testing will be delayed beyond 2020, and the cities said Tuesday they will review the arrangement for 2021 toward late December. The pact, which would have allowed passengers to travel between the centers without a quarantine, was already postponed by two weeks on Nov. 21, a day before flights were due to start.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...id-virus-cases

Last edited by percysmith; Dec 1, 2020 at 5:08 am
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Old Dec 1, 2020, 4:42 pm
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Bubble has officially burst!
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Old Dec 1, 2020, 8:18 pm
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Our HKG SIN 2020 ATB has burst , going to sort out with SIA tomorrow morning , today is for 😢 😓 .
Try check when the January 2021 ATB flights might resume & if better schedules 🤞🏻 .
Reserve various dates to avoid potential CNY / Lunar NY mass movements .
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Old Dec 2, 2020, 2:07 am
  #180  
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Originally Posted by carrotjuice
Bubble has officially burst!
That's what I have said weeks ago.

FWIW - I did not cause the widespread of the virus in Hong Kong, as I am not even in Hong Kong. So please don't blame me for getting that right.
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