Should CX leave Oneworld?
 

CX can take back their lounges and many DM will seemingly be happy that they can enjoy presumably exclusive access to the F lounge to the detriment of other alliance elites.

Does CX really want to be in Star or Scaryteam? Mind you CX thinks they are in the same league as SQ - but they would probably be unable to drive a bargain like SQ in exempting their product for alliance redemption like SQ have done. Or maybe CX think they are strong like EK, and just go it alone?

But this won't solve the grASpers "issue" (this is not an alliance issue, but a conscious choice of CX to sell its premium redemption inventory to a non-alliance partner).

Me thinks if CX leaves OW, they would be royally screwed, and it will be the end of an independent CX as we know it (ie it will bleed to death until swire would be forced to sell it to presumably a mainland carrier).

Why would CX be screwed if they leave OW

Lets look at it
Europe- limited partnership with any OW partner- If CX leaves- LH and CX will form a strong partnership the next day possibly even JV- these 2 airlines are quite close.

Australia- QF hates CX anyway and does nothing for them

NA- American created internal OW competition by launching HK, if CX leaves and AA chooses to abandon the relationship with CX, DL would be waiting anyway

China- CA
the rest of CX's network has no reliance on OW partners

CX would be fine,

I just think that CX will be the jnr partner in any alternative alliance.
*A - can they exempt inventory from redemptions? Prob not. And *A is such a hodge podge of airlines that it really is a free for all.
Sky - haven't really considered sky. But having a CX DM being a Sky elite just sounds funny (would they accept that?)

Maybe CX is strong enough to forge individual relationships ( like Virgin Australia perhaps). But I am skeptical - e.g. VA's lack of alignment seems to be an issue. One may also look at the ME3 - EK is on a different league. Note that QR has chosen to join OW. No idea how Etihad competes.

QR has nearly 10% stake in CX (their third largest shareholder) so their actions might be tied?

QRs 10% has no bearing except for polite consultation.

This lounge point is moot, except if they went to skyteam who by and large only has one lounge level accessible to E+. In star the same exceptions exists as OW, mot notably LH which has the same lounge policy as BA.

CX are reasonably independent of OW relying on feeds that suit their network rather than routing through OW hubs.

CA has more stake in CX than QR.

So if the actions are tied, they would naturally tied towards *A rather than OW.

Interesting conversation for sitting around the campfire, perhaps; but it isn't going to happen.

Why would they leave. In their two major markets they are partnered with the largest airlines there, AA and BA/IAG, and almost any connection to the Asia region goes through them.

Going *A involves splitting market share with SQ/AC/BR and giving up those connections, and noone is seriously suggesting they join Skyteam?

Not at all moot. *A doesn't give top tier elites access to F lounges as OW does. CX would instantly be rid of the Emeralds in its F lounges. Though who knows, maybe they need those entry fees from the sponsoring airline.

Unless cx is dumping the alliance idea, otherwise them staying in ow would hv less competition than in *... and better product than scary.

not to mention in star they would be 2nd tier citizens since they are founding members in ow.

how about qf jumping ship cuz they hv flirted w mu and is sleeping w ek?

I do not think QF and CX will leave as both of them are founding member of OW.

just because one is upset with OWE using CX F lounge, and or "AS grabber", reaching conclusion to leave OW is simply emotionally driven stupidity.

And having the same topic in a new thread over and over, like every month, is equally useless.

If CX wanted to get rid of the Emeralds in its F lounges, then it could probably pull the stunt that QR has done. Offer non-OW lounges to all passenger in F class and a OW F lounge offered to all eligible passengers (i.e. F and elites). In other words, the two things aren't mutually exclusive.