LAX-HKG (CX897) likely to misconnect to HKG-SGN (CX799)
 

I had originally booked LAX-HKG CX897 for me, wife and our 3 kids, scheduled to arrive in HKG at 4pm, then an overnight at the Marriott and a flight out to SGN first thing the next morning on CX767. Then CX799 SGN-HKG at 4:50pm opened up 5 seats and I moved us to that, stupidly without looking at the recent on-time performance of CX897.

It looks like 799 has been running at or near 16 hours lately and not making it in until 4:30pm sometimes nearly 5pm. I calculated about 4 arrivals that the connection is doable vs 10 where it is likely to definitely not over the last 15 days. I don't like them odds, so called AA back and the seats on CX767 on Sat AM are now gone.

I see the next flight after we land from LAX is at 10:25pm CX721 and has lie flat 333 config, and it has decent availability so we could at least crash out on that late flight. But staying in the airport from 5pm until 10pm is going to be gruesome (even w lounge) w my little ones.

If we miss CX799, I'm inclined to try to go back to my original plans and get some sleep at the Marriott (on my dime) and take CX767 the next morning (which has no award space but shows J9/C9/D9/I9).

What are the chances- on landing in HKG and misconnecting-- that CX will agree to rebook us onto the flight the next morning as opposed to insisting we take the next scheduled flight?

Methinks you already know the answer... if the next morning's flight is wide open, and especially if CX799 is busy, I'm sure they'll do it. But if CX799 is wide open and next morning's flight isn't, they're not going to agree. No chance they're bumping passengers on the morning flight to accommodate your request to take it, when it's not the next flight. You can't really control this since it has to do with loadings.

unless you are.vietnam national or very accustomed to it, i.wouldnt dare arriving so late at night let alone with 3 kids and worse yet after 16hr flight

Not VN national but lived in Singapore for years and have spent lots of time in SGN so can hold my own there. But we have Visa on Arrival this time, so midnight arrival after 30 hours of transit would be hell sitting in those uncomfortable seats for 30-45 minutes while I watch people shuffling paper...

I will watch the loads carefully and may see if I can get CX to do something proactively in LAX once the flight plan is loaded on day of departure. thanks for advice

You may be able to apply for an e-visa online: https://www.evisa.gov.kh/

Interesting to see the range of routings that the 4 CX and 1 AA daily flights are picking. The up top over Russia and down over eastern Mongoli vs the lower aleutian islands and down coast of Japan vs the flat out straight west from LAX route just north of Hawaii. Looks like about 50-50 odds of making our connection at this point based on couple of days more flights. But the 8:25am departure seems to be getting out late, which is adding the to problem. Looking like lots of space on the overnight LAX-HKG flights the night before, so maybe I will be lucky and find last minute space to move us over to one of those.

Nothing weird there. In fact, this time of year it's *abnormal* to use the western route you mention, due to the normally stronger winds during winter months. Northern routes are more common, particularly this time of year.

The reason the LAX flights are delayed isn't necessarily the flight paths, but it does seem something is a little weird going on with the wind. A few weeks ago I noticed all flights ex California to TPE and HKG routing just north of Hawaii due west, which is definitely abnormal for this time of year. It seems things are a bit longer right now (airborne time anywhere from 14:45-15:40 in last month, on the long side for LAX) and CX seems to be a little aggressive scheduling ex-LAX.

But this isn't the only issue....another big issue appears to be at LAX, either with late pushbacks or extended taxi times or something of that nature. I'm not sure why. Look below.

I think you're on CX897 right? Take the last few times CX897 was 30+ minutes delayed. Not a single one has taken off before 9am:

08:25 scheduled departure (+ground delay, push back, taxi time, etc.)

Dec 12: 09:05 takeoff (+40 minutes). Land 54 minutes late.
Dec 6: 09:05 takeoff (+40 minutes). Land 48 minutes late.
Dec 4: 09:14 takeoff (+49 minutes). Land 50 minutes late.
Dec 2: 09:09 takeoff (+44 minutes). Land 62 minutes late.
Nov 30: 09:32 takeoff (+67 minutes). Land 68 minutes late.
Nov 19: 09:37 takeoff (+72 minutes). Land 71 minutes late.
Nov 18: 09:54 takeoff (+89 minutes). Land 71 minutes late.
Nov 9: 10:07 takeoff (+102 minutes). Land 87 minutes late.

Wrong country.

Awkward... was thinking about my trip that goes HKG-PNH and heard about long waits for visa on arrival, put 2+2 together and got 5 it seems...

How is it ever possible to arrive at 4pm and get onto the next flight at 4.50pm?

How?

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Wow, CX897 is having worse on time performance than AA193 (!). Hopefully you can switch to the evening departures. Also, 897 arrives at afternoon time which is now basically guaranteed to have ATC holds due to the new ATC system problems recently.

It is legal MCT and even quite possible. In reality, over many years of taking 50 min connections in HKG i have learned it is easiest on a flight like 897 that usually arrives 15-30 minutes early! Indeed, 50 minutes is a tough slog when there is any sort of congestion in security. But it is generally doable if plane is indeed at arrival gate w 50 minutes to deplane and transit. It also helps to be in the front of the bus.

At HKG this is entirely possible. Even with timings under 45 mins (late inbound) and if connecting CX-CX/KA ground staff will meet you and escort you through security to the next flight. Friend of mine arrived late to HKG last week with a 35 min connection time and made the flight (arriving main terminal and connecting to 500 gates).

Looks like things are getting better in terms of 897 pushing back and getting off the ground more or less on time this week, that does seem to have been a real problem during December as QRC3288 pointed out. Wednesday and Thursday routes have been uploaded and it looks like we should be in the mid 15 hour range and should get in on time for our SGN connection.

I cannot understand why would anyone want to arrange a 50-min transit and then worry for many days how he is gonna make it....and then blame the airline for being late.

As I understand, no airline will arrange a transit for you with less than 60 min of transit time.

If you intentionally booked the 2 fights separately, you are only asking for trouble and the airlines are not at fault.

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