Sadly just HKG-DPS. There was a couple in first with their kid leaving an empty seat, I assumed everyone in business was travelling in pairs so they decided to upgrade poor single me.

I think i am a successful case for them...i switched from buying paid PEY to paid J (ironically because I got tired of stressing for op ups, sometimes I had to wait til boarding to find out...)

J1 C3 D4 I0 U P0 W5 R1 E0 T0 Y0 B0 H0 K3 M0 L0 V0 G0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 X0

AMS-HKG in 2 weeks. I was half expecting an empty flight due to the protests, so had a look and I'm guessing the flight will be full?

I'm in Y, as BA Silver (sapphire) what are the chances of of an upgrade (obv just a guess)?. I got one last year but was emerald then. Given I have the bulkhead I'm not bothered, just curious more than anything. As good a practise as it is, I will not miss the emerald welcome on every segment :) (I assume now I'm silver I won't have to deal with that?)

Very Low as BA silver

The order of upgrades when required is believed to be:

1. VIP (Heads of State, Government Bodies, or Canto Pop/Movie stars)
2. CX Diamond Plus
3. CX Diamond Invitation, Diamond
4. CX Gold
5. CX management staff on travel duty
6. oneworld Emerald
7. CX staff on duty nominees , other airline staff nominees, CX staff on personal travel
8. oneworld Sapphire
9. CX Silver
10. oneworld Ruby
11. CX Green
12. Asia Miles
13. Non status

I believe that this is an old story. CX has a more sophisticated upgrade algorithm.

SL, PEY to J while 2 vacant seats in PEY
 

Was on a long haul flight and got upgraded from PEY to J T-24. Out of curiosity, went and checked PEY cabin on that flight and saw a couple of vacant seats. Wondered how & why op-up took place, thankfully.

In speaking with check in staff and gate agents, seems like this is used as tie breaker

What is "thin"?

Lucky you, got the op-up even when the cabin is not full. Are you a regular traveler with CX so that they know you're a valuable customer?

CIV first then status for tiebreaker?

Or status first then CIV for tiebreaker?

CIV then status for tiebreaker. Have also heard that ticket sub-class do matter but have yet to verify this as a fact

Guessing the rules of a complex algorithm is never easy..

I had a discussion with a well-informed guy at HQ and he mentioned that CX went through several iterations over the years.

Many factors are taken into account, maybe the result is what you refer to as CIV. My discussion focused on opup from J to F on longhaul. Of course, that is rare because there are only 6 seats and some pax upgrade with miles or opup certificates.. But it seems that they take into account many factors like your flight history with CX (even if you are not a MPC), fare bucket and, of course status.

Just an anecdote: I was flying in paid F to Europe and my wife in paid J (cheap fare bucket, OWE with BA like me). She got opup to F at the gate. I knew for a fact that they were DM in J (friends/colleagues) who were paying higher fares. This was done by the algorithm and she did not ask for opup.

It is interesting to see that different aiirlines have different philosophies for opup. For example, AF does reward loyalty a bit but seems to use opup as a marketing tool to "attract" infrequent AF pax, such as people with other ST FFPs who infrequently fly AF. I am talking here about opup from Y/PE to J. And if you have been opuped previously, your chances of a new opup are reduced.

In the past 12 months, did you wife spend more with CX than your two DM colleagues?

You forgot:

14. Nicc HK (In all the years as a DM I was scoring around 3% upgrades)