Will waitlist clear? Flight change strategy
 

I booked an ex-OSL I fare to HKG and had to change my flight a week earlier. It seems that most days during the week of June 6 have LHR-HKG F award open. I know married segment makes it not possible for me to switch into these flight and get F on LHR-HKG. However, should I still change to the flights with F award available and hopefully it will clear the waitlist later on or maybe upgrade at the airport?

My reasoning is that flights with F award open are probably less likely to be sold and that's why they open it?

On the other hand, is it worth it to cancel the I-fare with HKD3000 penalty to go for ex-LHR F award?