Op-Up Strategy
 

So I'm hoping to get into Y+ or J on an upcoming HKG-SYD flight, at present I have made a V class booking and added my QFF number which by then will be OWE equivalent. Pretty much dead cert that Y will be overbooked as it's holiday season.

Assuming I get BN1 have I covered all the bases here in terms of maximising chances? Also OWE from QFF Platinum will be higher piority than MPC GR right?

Cheers

MPC Diamond+, Diamond, and Gold appears in front of you. Otherwise BN1 will maximize chance. Subclass of fare is indifferent. Travel alone. Don't order any special meal. and maybe don't check-in looking like a rag.

Think you got your bases covered, but HKG-SYD packed for any day in the next few weeks? Which day?

SYD-HKG packed by HK families returning from holidays but not HKG-SYD.

Many variables needs to work in your favor:

1) The Y seats are overbooked as you said and HOW MANY.

2) MPO Diamond (all the variety), Gold are in front of you. If these numbers are more than the number of pax overbooked, then no op-up for you.

3) Yes, if you managed to pass 1 and 2, then BN1 will be in your advantage and you will get a Y+ seat.

Op-Up Strategy
 

But its a bit difficult to get BN1 on the HKG-SYD leg, the Europe-Sydney pax would check in 10+ hours before you.... Same for OLCI....

No, they won't. Each sector opens 48 hours prior to departure. Not each itinerary.

OLCI opens 48 hours before each leg's departure time, so someone who has OLCIed for the EU-HKG segment cannot OLCI for the HKG-SYD segment earlier than someone originating from HKG.

Actually most likely u won't get any opup to J class as this route is heavily piled with business pax and the alternative is def not as good.

Thanks for the feedback all, at the moment the HKG-SYD flight is showing J 9 and W 9 across all fare buckets with only full Y available in economy. I'll cross my fingers and get BN1 :)

ha let us know what happens. I probably wouldn't get my hopes up, considering a.) the load in Y is light and b.) there are a lot of DMs and GOs on those flights who will have priority over you if the flight does fill up. I'd say your chance is <10% unfortunately.

:DUr chance is low for j class maybe to w.
Although of it is Y9 doesn't necessarily mean y is full

Not to worry about the loads there is plenty of time for the Y cabin to sell out, there are no discount Y fares on sale any longer since Friday when I grabbed mine. The expat demand will ensure that the flight is oversold in this period.

If flightstats.com shows the loadings of business as "J/2 C/2 D/2 I/1 ", does it mean there is a total of 7 available seats in J?

I think not. As I understand it, this means there are only 2 seats. They will sell either or both of those seats on a J, C or D fare, but are willing to sell only 1 at an I fare. It could mean anything. Maybe they've sold all but two J seats for business fares. Maybe they've taken some J seats out of circulation because Y already is overbooked and they figured they wouldn't sell the J seats at full price anyway.

Really, I'd recommend not tiring anyone's brain cells trying to work out with scientific precision the odds of an op-up. In my experience, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

One must always prepare to travel in the class one is booked in.

Of course one must also maximize chance of op-up :)