Andrew Yiu

Seems like every newspaper around Canda is saying that is the Onex deal doesn't go through, CP will close their door by Feb 00. So what will happen to all the Plats if they do close, will AC comp them? I personally think that CP is really in deep trouble especially seeing their passenger loading on some of my flights lately.

Regards,
Empress

Flyaway

I only hope that there will be more than one schedule airline in Canada. The monopoly that Air Canada has on Caribbean routes for example is painful for the consumer's pocket.

Agincourt

I really don't think AA, oneworld, or even the Cdn. gov. will let CP down because it's just such a good airline. After my trip returning from HK/China, I found the services provided by CP was just better and greater everytime I fly with them. Also, I flew CA from HKG to Beijing in August, but don't want to mention their 'excellent' services. At the end, CP's obviously not the best, but at least please keep it alives so we'll still have this great alternative in this country.

Fisch

Agincourt:

Good to have you back on the board. I hope you had a good trip to asia over the summer!

I too don't think that Canadi>n will go under. The regional divisions in Canada, in terms of cultural and political identity, are of such a concern to the federal liberals, that they won't take a chance at alienating the western Canadian population. Canadi>n employs 16,000 people in this country, with a very significant presence in the west.

The Chretien government would suffer such a political backlash from the west, that in order to from a third term in office, they would have to do it without any help from the west (and they know they can't do that). As well, the further division of western Canadians from the rest of the country is the last thing Ottawa needs. They are having enough trouble with the regional differences of Quebec.

"Just my two cents"

Flyaway

and if the market can't support 2 scheduled airlines......

Fisch

If the market, and it would seem it can't, can not support two national airlines in their current form, then the only option would be to significantly adjust the individual markets served. As we have seen, Canadi>n can make money - its longhaul routes (in particular Canada-UK) are quite lucrative. Perhaps the best plan would be to have Canadian drop all non-profitable routes in Canada that don't directly, and significantly increase route traffic to those highly useful international and trans-continental routes that do make money. Canadi>n is getting killed on the eastern shuttle (at least at my last check). Hourly flights between YUL and YYZ are not needed to fill the planes from Toronto.

What I would like to see is:
- Canadi>n to drop all non-profitable routes in Canada and USA that don't directly, and significantly increase route traffic on longhaul routes.
- Develop a codeshare agreement with Westjet to provide feed to longhaul routes in western Canada.

Perhaps this is a bit too idealistic for the Canadian industry, but it's what I think would keep two airlines flying, at least on some routes.

Agincourt

First of all, I'd like to thanks Fisch for your warm welcome. Here's sure a home away from home (and school). http://talk.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

Fisch, I agree with your opinion that CP really needs to drop some routes on domestic network and work hard on their international/u.s. front. For example, the returning flight I took from HKG-YVR was over sold!! (glad I made my booking 4 months in advance http://talk.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif) This time, I found their in-flight entertainment, food, and services were all better than last time I travel with them. The food was somewhat better and more oriental-style than few years ago. (Oh, I can still smell that delicious noodle cup. ) On the CP8 I took, there was at least more than 5 FAs were Chinese, compares to 1 or 2 last time I fly with them. And they even have Chinese movie/audio as well.

IF CP goes down, I'll really miss them A LOT.



[This message has been edited by Agincourt (edited 09-17-1999).]

KenHamer

Empress:

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into what the newspapers say. If it was Schwartz, Colinette, Benson or even Milton making those claims, then I'd be worried. But when it's editorialists (sometimes posing as journalists) I pretty much ignore them. Remember, it was only a year ago that the Canadian news media was talking about how the SwissAir MD-2 plane was sending out distress calls using morse code.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: given a choice between a "news reporter" and a drunken troll that lives under a bridge, I always go with the troll. The odds are much better. http://talk.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

Regards,

Ken Hamer

Andrew Yiu

I guess given what each of you have said, it is true that it will be a long way before Canadian goes down.

In regards to Agincourt, I don't know what class you travel, but sounds like Y to me. I also recently return from HKG on CP 8 in J class and the service was excellent, I don't care how AC is advertising their new seats on the 340s, I still think CP is the better choice. This trip also marks the first time that a FA actually had the passenger manifest on hand and ask for my meals and drink by my last name and not 'sir', simple things like this makes me so much more impressed about CP and assure me that they are in fact committed to giving us the best customer service.

Although it might be hard for CP to go down, I still don't want to go through what we went through 4 years ago when they 'almost' went down, still remember the Nov 30 deadline back then when everyone was crossing their fingers...it was a SCARE..

I think it is 200% true that the amount of flights that CP is putting out for YYZ - YUL and YYZ - YOW is ridiculous, even though they are using F28, they should never expect that those planes would be filled up! I would say cut those routes and probably add some more flight between YYZ and YVR. I don't know whether anyone of you have noticed, CP actually had to put out and 'extra' schedule flight between YVR and YYZ (CP 982) which they no longer have as of couple weeks ago. Those flights regularly have 70% loading and cut the 23:50 flight out of YYZ which arrives in YVR at 3 in the morning, I mean if given a choice, who would travel on that flight, from my knowledge, that flight is regularly only 30% full. Add an extra red eye flight from YVR - YYZ, those are always 100% full. Those are just some of the things they could do...there are a lot more Benson & Co. can do to save this company...They have done a good job in service, and I have to congragulate CP on their on time performance this year, I am sure many of you out there who travel CP found that they are much better this year than last. Bottom line is stop trying to compete with AC! Try to get yourself out of red ink before attempting to compete with AC.

As a last thought, what would the possiblilty be that Onex invest totally in CP making it a better airline than AC since Onex is already very frustrated with AC.

Regards,
Empress

[This message has been edited by Empress (edited 09-18-1999).]

jamiel

I'm just an interested observer but noted one thing that Empress said--don't be too sure that a flt leaving 1150p YYZ for YVR is a money loser even at 30% pax load factor--don't forget cargo---1150 would be a good time to collect cargo fm eastern Canada and get it out to YVR.

Back in the mid 80s Eastern did "moonlight specials" with their A300s which had full bellies of cargo, and would get filled up with cheap fliers (they didn't expect quite the amount of people). I seem to recall that they connected from East to West through Houston.

worldtraveler

Agincourt:

Canadian is a good airline but doesn't it bother you that we (as Asians) are literally taking over this airline? As a matter of fact we are fast taking over most the industries in Canada.

Yes, I do like to see my people progress but I have to admit that I feel self-conscious when my friends (of other races) feel cheated out of opportunities. When you said that they were five Asians as opposed to two on your flight from Asia, I could feel a collective SIGH in this room. This is not nessarialy a good thing for Canada. Canada is not only about our race but also about a mosaic of other races; it is not only for whites & Asians. This poor representation of other races on Canadian Airlines actually makes me not want to fly them.

Shareholder

I agree with Ken Hamer about the flurry of speculative stories filling the pages of the newspapers in this country (er, Canada) about the future of Cdn. Not to mention his assessment of most journalists and columnists.

Saturday's two "national" papers have a slew of the usual stories about the ONEX offer, and each paper quotes a different national poll as to what Canadians feel about the possible merger. The POST report a survey commissioned by Marlin Travel/Thomas Cook (an agency that tends to lean towards AC since many of their senior execs come from that airline, in my experience at least). It shows little support for a merger, but just as much uncertainty. (Don't discount Uncertainty in polls anymore, as we can see from the Saskatchewan election the other day...) Elsewhere in the POST is an ad Marlin has placed calling for Ottawa to nix any merger and leading us to their special website (www.maritimemarlin.ca). Haven't checked it out yet. But in my view the ad has some very misleading contentions about what a merged monopoly carrier would do. (Me thinks they're getting back at commission cuts, and the fear, not that our fares will go up under a single national carrier, but that their commissions could be more easily cut, but that's another story...)

The GLOBE has its own Angus Reid survey which shows over 60% support for a merger, but not necessarily under ONEX. Seems people don't trust Gerry Schwartz because of his Liberal connections. (See my previous postings on the subject of political influence relating to this offer in other strands.)

Of course, it's unlikely that many respondents had ever heard of him, or ONEX, before the deal was put on the table. This company does have a class act and track record with their takeovers, building these acquisitions into solid market leaders with strong management teams, then selling them off into the market or to other companies. ONEX likes to keep existing management teams, and I think their track record with their workers might suggest why Buzz Hargreaves of the CAW (and even Judy D'Arcy of CUPE) are less vocal than they might be with any other group making a similar bid. ONEX has done marvels with Celestron, the computer chip company they bought from IBM. It's put Canada right up there in the big leagues of microchip manufacturers, and repatriated a company from American to Canadian ownership. (Isn't that the jist of what Schwartz is pledging to do with Cdn, phasing AA's ownership and making the company 100% Canadian?)

But ONEX doesn't seem to have their PR act together. They've had a corporate web-site under construction for 6-months and it was still not up and running when the deal was first announced. I haven't been back, but did discover (through Cdn site) a link to a dedicated web site for AIRCO, where all the details have been posted by ONEX. I pulled down the 150-plus page prospectus/offer to AC shareholders. Interestingly, there was not a copy of the prospectus/offer to CP share-holders posted. Is this the reason the link has now disappeared from Cdn's site? (FYI: www.airco.ca, sorry, don't know how to put in a hot link like some of you do...)

And ONEX have also turned around Sky Chefs, which lagged under AA. (Interestingly, their partner in Sky Chefs is LUFTHANSA, one of AC's supposed white knights. Small world, isn't it?) I believe Schwartz when he says he wants to keep the best of both cultures (but please dump the arrogance of AC!) and keep standards high in the merged carrier.

What ONEX need to do is spend a little less on high-priced Ottawa lobbyists -- as the papers said two weeks ago, buying up every lobbyistm, just to keep them from being hired AC and its partners -- and more on a few full page ads to inform Canadians of who they are and what they've built in their portfolio of companies. I notice AC's started a series of full-page corporate ads vaunting their contributions to Canada. (But let's see now, since AC has been privatized all its CEOs have all been US citizens: Harris, Durrett and now Milton.)

The REPORT on BUSINESS inside the GLOBE has a story about Operation Tornado, and how ONEX and Cdn management set about making this deal. What I found more interesting in the same paper, but further in and buried in a feature story on "when to buy and when to sell your stocks", are the comments of a major institutional holder of AC stock who dumped on the "poor management" of AC. Quite revealing, and it suggests why ONEX is offering $8.25. Seems that AC management were putting the word out that they were going to have a great year a few years back and then pre-sold a new batch of shares into the market at prices between $10 and $12. When the stock actually hit the market, the price plunged to... you've guessed it: $8.25. And the great year wasn't all that great, profit-wise. If the language used by that fund manager is representative of most institutional investors, they'll take the $8.25 and shares in a sure-to-be-profitable new carrier... unless UA and LH do come along to bail AC management out with something sweeter.

But then what about all the complaints that the ONEX deal is really a front for AA and an American take-over of the Canadian airline business? UA and LH certainly aren't Canadian companies. And as for the res computer system, I recall AC sold off that part of their business a couple of years ago when GEMINI was dissolved, and it is IBM Canada that is managing the computer side for them, tied into one of the other big three systems (used to be BA's methinks) that compete with SABRE.

The cauldrun will churn over the weekend and we'll see what AC's Board have to say on Monday when they issue their formal recommen- dations to us folk, the shareholders.

Wonder which sides lobbyists I'll run into in the hotel corridors when I fly into Ottawa later in the week?

Celestar340

Agincourt & World Traveler - As an Asian myself, and having had worked for Canadian Airlines themselves way back in the late 80's, all I can say is that Canadian IS very multicultural when it comes to their employees. The only problem is the union.

I can say from experience when I was with CP then as a flight attendant, there were many asians of all races working in in-flight. They were specifically hired for their language capabilities as that was a common complaint that there were not enough Chinese/Japanese speaking cabinn attendants on the Asian runs.

After CP bought Wardair, the retrenchment started. As much as Canadian wanted to retain most if not all of the language-capable flight attendants, it had no choice but to rid all flight attendants based on seniority. Unfortunately, most of the asian employees were the most recently hired - and when you're being laid off...last in - first out!

After a few stagnant years when CP did not hire any new F/As, and only after the laid-off flight attendants' recall years had run out. (Meaning that a laid off flight attendant had 4 years to be recalled back first should the company require new F/A's)
Only then did CP hire new F/A's with one difference - they were all specifically capable of speaking Asian languages. But it was not descriminating against race - there were non-asian flight attendants who were hired too - as long as they could speak/understand any asian language - specifically Japanese, Mandarin and Cantonese. I personally know of a couple of Japanese & Mandarin qualified flight attendants who have blond hair!

CP can never be like Cathay or Singapore Airlines mainly because there are a multitude of other nationalities that make up Canada. And hence being Canadian and working on Canadian is what makes it all so special....

Agincourt

WorldTraveler, I understand what your concerns's about. Yes, there were 5 FAs that were Asian, BUT, the rest were not. HOWEVER, on my connection flight from YVR-YYZ (CP8 also) there were NONE one of the FAs were Asian. They were made up of black and white. So that does this mean? It means CP are just doing their best to serve the majority, in this case, they used Asian to serve Asian.

I think CP did a very good job in recent years. Before we went back to HK, my father complained at my mother why she booked on CP and not CX?!? His concerns was that CP never knew how to do business because they never had Chinese FAs, no Chinese movies, no Chinese newspapers, no everything. But guess what, he changed his views on CP after this trip.

So WorldTraveler, CP didn't kill the opportunities for other races. In contrast, they're creating them. http://talk.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

Rudi

I am really impressed by the high quality of information and opinions of this discussion. And I learn a lot. thank you all.