Hurricane Hilary Effect/Impact on Southern California
Aug 16, 23, 5:59 pm
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Hurricane Hilary Effect/Impact on Southern California
Well, LA might actually get something that looks like a hurricane some time early next week (08/21/23):
David
David
Aug 16, 23, 7:44 pm
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Tropical Storm Hilary expected to deluge Southern California with heavy rains
Tropical Storm Hilary Moves Toward Baja California
Hurricane remnants may bring high impact deluge to California, Southwest
Tropical Storm Hilary formed Wednesday morning along Mexicos western coast and is forecast to bring intense rains to Southern California early next week. If it makes landfall, it would become only the fourth storm of at least tropical storm strength to hit the area.
Conditions are favorable for Hilary to increase in intensity over the next two to three days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storms peak intensity Saturday morning as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The storm is expected to weaken soon after that due to cooler ocean temperatures and potential land interaction with Mexicos Baja, just south of California. By Sunday, heavy rainfall is expected to reach Southern California and southwest Arizona.
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The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, forecasts that Hilary will transition from a tropical storm to an extratropical storm by Monday morning near the California-Mexico border with 60 mph maximum sustained winds. Long-range computer models show the potential for 40-60 mph wind gusts Monday in Southern California, especially in the mountains.
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The wind damage potential appears to be a minor concern compared to the rainfall threat. There is already a slight risk of flash flooding issued for the region early next week, which is likely to be upgraded to a moderate or high risk if the forecast trend toward Southern California continues.
Conditions are favorable for Hilary to increase in intensity over the next two to three days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storms peak intensity Saturday morning as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The storm is expected to weaken soon after that due to cooler ocean temperatures and potential land interaction with Mexicos Baja, just south of California. By Sunday, heavy rainfall is expected to reach Southern California and southwest Arizona.
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The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, forecasts that Hilary will transition from a tropical storm to an extratropical storm by Monday morning near the California-Mexico border with 60 mph maximum sustained winds. Long-range computer models show the potential for 40-60 mph wind gusts Monday in Southern California, especially in the mountains.
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The wind damage potential appears to be a minor concern compared to the rainfall threat. There is already a slight risk of flash flooding issued for the region early next week, which is likely to be upgraded to a moderate or high risk if the forecast trend toward Southern California continues.
However, an air mass can sometimes block a storm, driving it north or northeast toward the Baja California peninsula and the west coast of Mexico. Occasionally, a storm can move farther north, as with post-tropical cyclone Kay last year, bringing damaging wind and intense rain to Southern California. Sometimes storms even move across the state; in 1997, Hurricane Nora made landfall in Baja California before moving inland and reaching Arizona as a tropical storm.
Hilary is expected to become a hurricane Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said, as it gains strength from extremely warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. While Hilary is likely to weaken as it tracks northward over colder waters closer to Baja California this weekend, the remnants could bring several inches of rain and possibly flooding to areas in the midst of drought.
Confidence continues to increase on a heavy rainfall, potentially high impact, event unfolding across parts of the Southwest and California Saturday to Monday associated with likely tropical development in the east Pacific, the National Weather Service said Wednesday.
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Hilary is unlikely to sustain its hurricane strength once it encounters much colder waters by the weekend.
Hilarys future track becomes more uncertain as the storm moves farther north this weekend, with some models hugging the Baja California coast while others keep it farther west off the coast. That makes it hard to predict the rainfall and wind impacts with confidence.
Confidence continues to increase on a heavy rainfall, potentially high impact, event unfolding across parts of the Southwest and California Saturday to Monday associated with likely tropical development in the east Pacific, the National Weather Service said Wednesday.
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Hilary is unlikely to sustain its hurricane strength once it encounters much colder waters by the weekend.
Hilarys future track becomes more uncertain as the storm moves farther north this weekend, with some models hugging the Baja California coast while others keep it farther west off the coast. That makes it hard to predict the rainfall and wind impacts with confidence.
Aug 17, 23, 8:50 am
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Tropical Cyclones seem to landfall in Southern California every 100-200 years with remnants of storms hitting a bit more often. The NHC has official breakpoints up to about San Luis Obispo in case theyre needed for forecasting.
Aug 17, 23, 12:42 pm
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Aug 17, 23, 1:20 pm
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Aug 17, 23, 3:05 pm
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I seem to remember that LA has a certain amount of low-lying beachside homes that get water really close to them under certain high tide situations. Depending on the approach angle, things could get messy with how the bottom part of the storm passes over the LA area.
Aug 17, 23, 6:11 pm
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Why would you say that?!? 
Still unclear. Most recent forecasts have it passing to the east of SD such that coastal areas would only see some heavier than usual rains and wind. But if it tracks west even a little it will be a very different story. Obviously we'll know more tomorrow...
Still unclear. Most recent forecasts have it passing to the east of SD such that coastal areas would only see some heavier than usual rains and wind. But if it tracks west even a little it will be a very different story. Obviously we'll know more tomorrow...
Aug 17, 23, 6:37 pm
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Since many Californians don't have much experience with tropical weather, here are some reminders.
Don't focus on just the center line. Anywhere inside the cone may get the storm, and with 3+ days until landfall, the cone may shift.
When a storm approaches a coast at this sort of angle, it only takes a small shift, just a few degrees of angle, to move the landfall far away. Remember that just a couple of days before Hurricane Ian hit Ft Myers, it was forecast to come onshore near Tallahassee, almost 300 miles north. A slight westward shift on Hilary could move landfall from Tijuana to LA or even Santa Barbara.
Also, the right side of the storm always has the heavier winds. As Hilary moves up the coast, that means the land side of the storm gets it worse, while the water side continues to add fuel. The exact landfall location won't be the only place with tropical storm force winds; those could move up a large swath of the coast.
Don't focus on just the center line. Anywhere inside the cone may get the storm, and with 3+ days until landfall, the cone may shift.
When a storm approaches a coast at this sort of angle, it only takes a small shift, just a few degrees of angle, to move the landfall far away. Remember that just a couple of days before Hurricane Ian hit Ft Myers, it was forecast to come onshore near Tallahassee, almost 300 miles north. A slight westward shift on Hilary could move landfall from Tijuana to LA or even Santa Barbara.
Also, the right side of the storm always has the heavier winds. As Hilary moves up the coast, that means the land side of the storm gets it worse, while the water side continues to add fuel. The exact landfall location won't be the only place with tropical storm force winds; those could move up a large swath of the coast.
Aug 17, 23, 7:28 pm
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Aug 18, 23, 1:38 am
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Aug 18, 23, 11:13 am
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The current water temperature at Cabo (which is currently 360 miles N of Hilary) is 30C/88F. In San Diego, it is 20C/68F. The reason CA does not experience hurricanes/tropical storms is because the water is terribly cold here all year round and warm water is one of the main requirements for a hurricane (water temp must be over 26C/79F for a hurricane to even form). This storm will be a headache in the desert and burn areas, but it will definitely not be anything even remotely resembling a hurricane after it passes the Baja coast.
I look forward to some rain, but I have learned in my 20 years here to never get your hopes up for a storm, as they all seem to bypass my area completely regardless of what the forecasts predict. This storm still has a long way to go.
I look forward to some rain, but I have learned in my 20 years here to never get your hopes up for a storm, as they all seem to bypass my area completely regardless of what the forecasts predict. This storm still has a long way to go.
