MAN-JFK ceases 26th October

Old Apr 21, 08, 1:59 pm
  #61  
 
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Since Open Skies, competition will continue to rise. When do you think the demand will 'saturate'? My prediction is that within the next 2 years, the bevy of airlines serving the Anglo-American market will be significantly trimmed down to only 2 competitors. Namely British Airways and Delta Air Lines (especially given their impending merger and extensive network). My prediction is that it will be as if deregulation never happened on the transatlantic market.
Given the conditions at LHR, I suggest that Virgin Atlantic concentrates on capturing overseas markets. DXB would make a great focus city for them (similar to QF at SIN).
Back to MAN-JFK: given that slots at LHR are a valuable commodity, I'd say that this route wil be put on hold for a while. Does anyone know anything about the business loads from the North of England?
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Old Apr 21, 08, 2:52 pm
  #62  
 
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Originally Posted by directorguy_ View Post
Since Open Skies, competition will continue to rise. When do you think the demand will 'saturate'? My prediction is that within the next 2 years, the bevy of airlines serving the Anglo-American market will be significantly trimmed down to only 2 competitors. Namely British Airways and Delta Air Lines (especially given their impending merger and extensive network). My prediction is that it will be as if deregulation never happened on the transatlantic market.
Given the conditions at LHR, I suggest that Virgin Atlantic concentrates on capturing overseas markets. DXB would make a great focus city for them (similar to QF at SIN).
Back to MAN-JFK: given that slots at LHR are a valuable commodity, I'd say that this route wil be put on hold for a while. Does anyone know anything about the business loads from the North of England?
What?!! A number of confusing comments here...

Open Skies will increase competition dramatically, but there is so much demand & such high prices that this will only benefit the consumer. I highly doubt any of the established carriers will withdraw services.

British Airways is the largest airline at Heathrow & the biggest player on the North Atlantic & prized New York route. Virgin's entire business was built upon the North Atlantic & only in recent years have they expanded eastwards. American & United are both well settled as well with more than a dozen daily frequencies each to numerous cities in the States. Part of their success is owed to their alliance membership & the strong OneWorld & Star Alliance presence at Heathrow.

The new Delta Air Lines that will emerge today is only an extremely minor player in the London market. Combining all their services (slots, seats whatever...) from both LGW & LHR they're both way behind the big 4 at Heathrow. Are they going to get more slots? Unlikely. Their alliance partners have already parted with enough slots & any more would hinder their competitiveness - Air France especially in the face of Eurostar. An extremely aggressive bid for any spare slots may bear fruit but then again, they're unlikely to be at conveninent times. The peak morning arrivals & lunchtime departures favoured by american operations are the busiest, most valuable & hardest to come by. Remember almost every long haul carrier could do with arrivals in the early morning.

Now your suggesting that this relatively insignificant player on the London scene which has far less brand awareness than the big three manages to knock out United, American & Virgin who have built up around transatlantic flights from the begining! What you're also suggesting is that Delta monopolises the connections market since BA doesn't interline with AA on that many routes & connections get complicated. I fail to understand why all those airlines would suddenly abandon an extremely profitable market segment as per your prediction - let alone in 2 years.

As for Virgin Atlantic making DXB a focus city?! Ever heard of Emirates? They're almost 8 times bigger than Virgin today & are growing at an astonishing rate. Where are Virgin supposed to go? How are they supposed to compete with that. & then you've got Etihad & Qatar on the doorstep...
Apart from that, Virgin is a very British company with many established brands in telecoms, media, entertainment, trains, buses, airlines (the only ones which really go abroad) etc. To suddenly jump ship to Dubai would be senseless. Afterall, London is a much more high-yielding venture.

Qantas only use Singapore as a 'focus city' as you put it because it imposes no restrictions for through traffic. It is also perfectly located for launching 'Kangaroo flights' to London & the rest of Europe.

Outside of London, there is next to no demand for First class, everyone's used to LCCs & expect bargain fares. Business is strong. But why fly to Manchester when you can fly to the goldmine in London?!! Might I add, it has one of the highest if not thee highest O&D demand in the world.

I might finally add, that if anyone were to leave town it would be Delta for 3 reasons:
1) Skyteam are weak at Heathrow & London in general. They have no British alliance member, no major slot holder & no major long haul presence
2) Inferior product - How can a recliner with inferior service compete with the flat beds of Virgin & BA at the same prices? Delta don't get flat beds on their B767s until Spring 2009 at the earliest
3) Unless the US end of the deal is sealed in Open Skies 2.0 then the whole Open Skies agreement is void AFAIK. Surely then Delta would be kicked out of shop!

Rant over!

Last edited by flyboy777; Apr 21, 08 at 3:00 pm Reason: Added more to rant
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Old Apr 23, 08, 1:23 am
  #63  
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Enough of this talk of the economics of the airline industry - what about me?

Anyone interested in buying the thick end of 300,000 BA miles?

With my last opportunity to use them disappearing I'm looking for alternatives.
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Old Apr 23, 08, 4:20 am
  #64  
 
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Unhappy

Not been on these boards for a few weeks due to a welcome break in travel; not actually planned to coninced with T5 but I guess I lucked out...

This is a devastating blow from my POV, just when the MAN-JFK route deal we get has started to make it cost effective to use again as opposed to MAN-LHR-JFK. I really do feel nothing but despair for BA atm...

Originally Posted by directorguy_ View Post
Back to MAN-JFK: given that slots at LHR are a valuable commodity, I'd say that this route wil be put on hold for a while. Does anyone know anything about the business loads from the North of England?
The sad fact is that the short term hard ecconomics probably make sense; as a 767 this flight has three tiers CW, WT+ and WT.
While WT and WT+ are often full to the gunnels, CW is in my exp usually about 75% full. If they can use that landing slot for a 777 with 1st, or even with inceased CW capacity wrt 767 then it will bring in a lot more revenue.

Sadly it does hammer home the Londoncentric nature of their future business plans...

@MIM: I here you... my 600K+ may be next to yours on ebay!
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Old Apr 23, 08, 7:01 am
  #65  
 
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Originally Posted by teletraveller View Post
Sadly it does hammer home the Londoncentric nature of their future business plans...

@MIM: I here you... my 600K+ may be next to yours on ebay!
I share your view (and MIM's) about LHR Airways and the message this sends to everyone in light of the T5 disaster. However, I think selling your miles (Naughty! ) is selling yourself short.

I am planning a nice holiday with 2-4-1 x 2 in F or J on as long a trip as possible and with as many of my family as possible with my miles balance.

I am going to make sure we have a grand last hurrah on BA (before I lose my status) and we will attempt to drink the lounges and aircraft out of fizz in both directions.

Then I shall feel that my loyalty has been somewhat rewarded and I will wish LHR Airways well on it's endeavours whilst I build my balance and status with someone who values my custom.

Sad days indeed but unfortunately BA don't want us or our money so we need to go elsewhere and if I have to change somewhere I am quite sure it will be anywhere other than LHR unless I am paying with BA Miles

signed

Bad Attitude
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Old Apr 23, 08, 1:28 pm
  #66  
 
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Originally Posted by flyboy777 View Post
What?!! A number of confusing comments here...

Open Skies will increase competition dramatically, but there is so much demand & such high prices that this will only benefit the consumer. I highly doubt any of the established carriers will withdraw services.

British Airways is the largest airline at Heathrow & the biggest player on the North Atlantic & prized New York route. Virgin's entire business was built upon the North Atlantic & only in recent years have they expanded eastwards. American & United are both well settled as well with more than a dozen daily frequencies each to numerous cities in the States. Part of their success is owed to their alliance membership & the strong OneWorld & Star Alliance presence at Heathrow.

The new Delta Air Lines that will emerge today is only an extremely minor player in the London market. Combining all their services (slots, seats whatever...) from both LGW & LHR they're both way behind the big 4 at Heathrow. Are they going to get more slots? Unlikely. Their alliance partners have already parted with enough slots & any more would hinder their competitiveness - Air France especially in the face of Eurostar. An extremely aggressive bid for any spare slots may bear fruit but then again, they're unlikely to be at conveninent times. The peak morning arrivals & lunchtime departures favoured by american operations are the busiest, most valuable & hardest to come by. Remember almost every long haul carrier could do with arrivals in the early morning.

Now your suggesting that this relatively insignificant player on the London scene which has far less brand awareness than the big three manages to knock out United, American & Virgin who have built up around transatlantic flights from the begining! What you're also suggesting is that Delta monopolises the connections market since BA doesn't interline with AA on that many routes & connections get complicated. I fail to understand why all those airlines would suddenly abandon an extremely profitable market segment as per your prediction - let alone in 2 years.

As for Virgin Atlantic making DXB a focus city?! Ever heard of Emirates? They're almost 8 times bigger than Virgin today & are growing at an astonishing rate. Where are Virgin supposed to go? How are they supposed to compete with that. & then you've got Etihad & Qatar on the doorstep...
Apart from that, Virgin is a very British company with many established brands in telecoms, media, entertainment, trains, buses, airlines (the only ones which really go abroad) etc. To suddenly jump ship to Dubai would be senseless. Afterall, London is a much more high-yielding venture.

Qantas only use Singapore as a 'focus city' as you put it because it imposes no restrictions for through traffic. It is also perfectly located for launching 'Kangaroo flights' to London & the rest of Europe.

Outside of London, there is next to no demand for First class, everyone's used to LCCs & expect bargain fares. Business is strong. But why fly to Manchester when you can fly to the goldmine in London?!! Might I add, it has one of the highest if not thee highest O&D demand in the world.

I might finally add, that if anyone were to leave town it would be Delta for 3 reasons:
1) Skyteam are weak at Heathrow & London in general. They have no British alliance member, no major slot holder & no major long haul presence
2) Inferior product - How can a recliner with inferior service compete with the flat beds of Virgin & BA at the same prices? Delta don't get flat beds on their B767s until Spring 2009 at the earliest
3) Unless the US end of the deal is sealed in Open Skies 2.0 then the whole Open Skies agreement is void AFAIK. Surely then Delta would be kicked out of shop!

Rant over!
I was in a bit of a rush when I wrote my previous post. However, I found it interesting to read your reply. Iím learning a lot about airline economics.

1. I didnít know how big Delta was at LHR (since Iíve never flown the route). To me, they seem to have a large network but now Iíve changed my mind.
2. When I said that VS could open a hub at DXB, it was a Ďspur-of-the-momentí comment. I know that DXB has an Open Skies policy, and that many airlines take advantage of mutli-daily frequencies into DXB and take advantage of fifth freedom rights. I meant to say that the airline could take advantage of that and use it as a secondary hub. I DO know who Emirates are, Iím not THAT stupid.
Thanks for clearing things up thoughÖ.
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Old Apr 23, 08, 3:06 pm
  #67  
 
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Originally Posted by MIM View Post
Enough of this talk of the economics of the airline industry - what about me?

Anyone interested in buying the thick end of 300,000 BA miles?

With my last opportunity to use them disappearing I'm looking for alternatives.
I see a good RTW in 80 hours oppurtunity here

Originally Posted by directorguy_ View Post
I was in a bit of a rush when I wrote my previous post. However, I found it interesting to read your reply. Iím learning a lot about airline economics.

1. I didnít know how big Delta was at LHR (since Iíve never flown the route). To me, they seem to have a large network but now Iíve changed my mind.
2. When I said that VS could open a hub at DXB, it was a Ďspur-of-the-momentí comment. I know that DXB has an Open Skies policy, and that many airlines take advantage of mutli-daily frequencies into DXB and take advantage of fifth freedom rights. I meant to say that the airline could take advantage of that and use it as a secondary hub. I DO know who Emirates are, Iím not THAT stupid.
Thanks for clearing things up thoughÖ.
I think it's unlikely Virgin will add frequency to Dubai. Firstly for the huge Emirates presence in the UK, particularly out of London (5x LHR, 3x LGW almost exclusively B777s) & the fact that any new LHR slots would probably be better used on flights to more profitable destinations.
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Old Apr 23, 08, 5:55 pm
  #68  
 
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Originally Posted by flyboy777 View Post
Whilst at the same time we've seen:
first beds in First class
first beds in Business Class
LHR stronghold
T5 - when teething problems sorted
AVOD
Network to all continents on earth - excluding antartica
I'm not quite sure this list is much to gloat about, or even to be particularly proud of, considering almost any airline of even marginal quality fulfills all these criteria. They may not have had the first flat beds, but some airlines have surpassed BA in hard product (as well as soft product). Just about every airline can claim a stronghold at their home base. Most other large airlines have a more extensive route network than BA, especially KLM/Air France (except North America of course). Having AVOD is not special; not having AVOD is fast becoming unacceptable, even in economy. T5, well, maybe that's special, but it's not the only terminal that's pretty and works well (eventually, hopefully).
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