Snow flight cancelling

Old Feb 12, 2024, 6:07 am
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Snow flight cancelling

Would really appreciate some advice here.

I'm on BA185 LHR to EWR tomorrow. A lot of snow and high winds are due in the NYC tri-state area (5-9 inches, beginning in the morning - due to arrive at 2pm). How likely is it they'll cancel the flight vs. just push it back for hours? I realize this is a crystal ball question but I'm wondering if anybody has enough experience to be able to predict.

Thanks!
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 6:51 am
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The News last night here in NY said the NYC area (includes EWR) should at worst get 1", but since it will be warmer then they originally thought most maybe be slush. = you shouldnt have a problem landing
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 6:54 am
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Thanks for this - the NOAA forecast is 5-9 inches now....I guess we'll see!
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 7:01 am
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Originally Posted by scgnyc
Thanks for this - the NOAA forecast is 5-9 inches now....I guess we'll see!

If youre heading North of NYC or NW NJ or New England they will be hit hard. They are saying Southern Long Island may mostly be rain. That said a slight movement in the line South can change all that and bring alot of snow, but thus far last year and this they were pretty much on the money if anything the snow they thought wed get was just a covering

Id say checkout www.cbsnews.com look for the Live button and click on "New York" probably best from 5pm NY time this afternoon, it should be filled with what is expected and where and when
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 7:07 am
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It will probably be a fine line - yes, the NWS does say 5-9" - their meteogram notes 6.5" before noon, but with temperatures hovering just above freezing. A lot depends - if the wind is off the water you show be okay, if it's more northerly, then probably more likely to be snowier. Bottom line - assume Plan A, but have a Plan B.
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 7:30 am
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ACCU Weather (which has been pretty good this year);


Rain mixing with snow; breezy late; rain and wet roads may lead to travel disruptions

alertsWinter Storm Watch

4:00 AM Tuesday - 6:00 PM Tuesday
WindE 10 mph

Wind Gusts23 mph

Probability of Precipitation95%

Probability of Thunderstorms0%

Precipitation0.44 in

Rain0.39 in

Snow0.2 in

Hours of Precipitation6.5

Hours of Rain6.5

Cloud Cover

Now it does say 2" of snow but since it will be raining alot before that alot of the snow will melt away(hopefully) as I said probably alot more Slush then anything and for getting around snow is easier and less stressfull
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 7:56 am
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This is all great and I am really grateful. But, I was actually looking for experience with BA and cancelling or delaying flights. Like, when do those decisions get made? If it's the worse senario, 5-9 inches by the afternoon, when I'm landing, when would I find out about cancellation or delay? As you might imagine, I'm trying to game not only an appointment in Northern NJ at 5:30 as well as not wanting to waste my time going to LHR....
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 8:31 am
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Originally Posted by scgnyc
This is all great and I am really grateful. But, I was actually looking for experience with BA and cancelling or delaying flights. Like, when do those decisions get made? If it's the worse senario, 5-9 inches by the afternoon, when I'm landing, when would I find out about cancellation or delay? As you might imagine, I'm trying to game not only an appointment in Northern NJ at 5:30 as well as not wanting to waste my time going to LHR....
Since the snow isnt suppose to start till very late tonight and with differences of opinion to how much will fall, I doubt BA or any Carrier will make a call till they know pretty much what will be. UA has a Travel Alert for the NE including EWR where you can change your flight or date. All of their flights for tomorrow are showing On Time for now out of LHR to EWR

My gut tells me your flight will be OK but depending where in North NJ youre heading you may not be
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 8:34 am
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Originally Posted by scgnyc
This is all great and I am really grateful. But, I was actually looking for experience with BA and cancelling or delaying flights. Like, when do those decisions get made? If it's the worse senario, 5-9 inches by the afternoon, when I'm landing, when would I find out about cancellation or delay? As you might imagine, I'm trying to game not only an appointment in Northern NJ at 5:30 as well as not wanting to waste my time going to LHR....
If the forecast is uncertain then in my experience it is quite likely BA will depart LHR and will have appropriate diversion plans in the event that they cannot land. I have landed into JFK in the middle of a major Feb snowstorm on a (very lightly loaded) BA A318 from LCY which felt rather adventurous. In any event you are unlikely to know more until tomorrow when you arrive at LHR.
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 8:37 am
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If its a pretty definitive forecast and the Port Authority agrees, then the day before operations generally.
If its marginal, then they will probably let it ride, removing additional ground handling challenges, things like carriage of cargo, empty baggage bins etc, to simplify turn around functions.
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 8:48 am
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So grateful for this. It's looking pretty definite....
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 8:53 am
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Originally Posted by scgnyc
So grateful for this. It's looking pretty definite....
Im always a bit cautious with US weather events. They tend to be talked up by rolling news channels with little other news to report. Keep an eye on BA flight status tomorrow but plan to turn up as normal in time for departure unless you are specifically told otherwise by BA.
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 8:57 am
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Yea, I hear you. My sister actually worked in radio in Philadelphia in the 80s and at the end of the winter they would talk up any snow forecast so they could play all the pre-paid commercial spots for soup and skiing....
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 9:00 am
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Originally Posted by scgnyc
So grateful for this. It's looking pretty definite....




The airfield forecast is not sufficiently long enough yet, IMO, for a proper analysis to be made.
Another update is issued at 5pm UK.
Whilst it does suggest heavy snow between 0900-1300L, it only has a probability of 30%. NB, the highest probability in an airfield forecast is 40%. Prob 30s are not always taken to be of significance.

Some other considerations that will be made will be whether the usual diversion alternate airports are available, eg BOS/PHL etc.

In short, youll need to wait a bit longer, would be my best guess.
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Old Feb 12, 2024, 9:52 am
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Some other considerations that will be made will be whether the usual diversion alternate airports are available, eg BOS/PHL etc.

In short, you’ll need to wait a bit longer, would be my best guess.[/QUOTE]

Im not sure anyone would use BOS since its looks as if they will get inudated snow fall, PHL depending how far South it snows, more likely IAD

Update, seems the frontal line has been moved South so more likely now NYC will be hit and they are saying maybe PHL as well

Last edited by theroz; Feb 12, 2024 at 10:11 am
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