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How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

How windy is “windy” on Sunday at Heathrow? [Storm Isha]

Old Jan 19, 2024, 5:53 am
  #31  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Scotland
Programs: BA Silver, Hilton Diamond, BD Blue (RIP)
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I'm due to fly BRU-LHR-MAN. Work laptop is coming with me to Belgium this weekend on the expectation that I may not be getting home Sunday night.
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 6:57 am
  #32  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
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It's going to be very windy! I hope for minimal disruptions!
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 3:03 pm
  #33  
 
Join Date: Oct 2023
Location: London
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I have had several cancellations when these named storms have blown in, and as I’m now sitting in the south of France and due to fly back on Sunday afternoon, I’m into full Stranding Mode. Have packed for extra nights away, have brought my full work set-up, and even booked a refundable room at an airport hotel
in Nice for Sunday night just in case the Travel Gods are not yet done having their fun with me. Fingers crossed…
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 3:39 pm
  #34  
 
Join Date: Oct 2022
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Would you say LCY is going to be hit harder by disruption?
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 3:46 pm
  #35  
 
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Due to fly LHR- GLA Sun evening. Starting to think early arrival at airport might be in order...
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 4:01 pm
  #36  
 
Join Date: Jan 2024
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Due to fly out Sunday night LHR-CPT! Anyone know what crosswind speed might stop the plane from taking off?
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 4:02 pm
  #37  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
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Originally Posted by BAcityflyer
Would you say LCY is going to be hit harder by disruption?
It will probably feel and look a little something like this….


Gets slightly sporty from 2:00 onwards.

In retort to other posts re crosswinds, don’t forget that the crosswind component will be important. So for a 320/350 38/40 kts. For a 787 40kts for the runway condition expected and the same for the 777. That would be including gusts and at 90 degrees to the runway if the wind is 45 degrees off the runway, you can take 50% of the xwind as that is the component the aircraft feels and is affected by. So for a wind of 30kts @ 45 degrees off the runway heading, that would be 15kts of xwind, so like waterhorse says, aircraft and individual pilot limits may differ , but for the forecast as it is right now it is still within limits (obviously subject to change). Crack on I say.

Now about that gumshield….
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Last edited by Sigwx; Jan 19, 2024 at 4:14 pm
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 4:03 pm
  #38  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
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Originally Posted by Waterhorse
Not really - A320 family max crosswind for landing is 38 knots and the A350 it’s 40 knots. My personal ability level may be lower than unless you have a sports bra and a gum shield, and who (apart from me) travels with those on a regular basis?
I might need to borrow your bra. I’ll send a beg text nearer the time.
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Old Jan 19, 2024, 5:21 pm
  #39  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Originally Posted by Sigwx
It will probably feel and look a little something like this….

https://youtu.be/IszlW1FIGBU

Gets slightly sporty from 2:00 onwards.

In retort to other posts re crosswinds, don’t forget that the crosswind component will be important. So for a 320/350 38/40 kts. For a 787 40kts for the runway condition expected and the same for the 777. That would be including gusts and at 90 degrees to the runway if the wind is 45 degrees off the runway, you can take 50% of the xwind as that is the component the aircraft feels and is affected by. So for a wind of 30kts @ 45 degrees off the runway heading, that would be 15kts of xwind, so like waterhorse says, aircraft and individual pilot limits may differ , but for the forecast as it is right now it is still within limits (obviously subject to change). Crack on I say.

Now about that gumshield….
A quick rule of thumb to work out a crosswind is to use a clock as an analogy. 60 equals the whole of an hour, so the whole of the wind as a crosswind so 330/30 on runway 27 would be 30 knots crosswind. 30 degrees off is half the wind as a crosswind: 300/30 would be 15 knots of crosswind etc. It’s only a quick rule of thumb and not an exact thing but is good enough at 300 feet when ATC give you a wind check. there are more complete mathematical tools available online, which will give you exact crosswind components
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Old Jan 20, 2024, 1:26 am
  #40  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
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The wind is presently backing to become southerly for the majority of today (Saturday), then expected to veer overnight to become south southwesterly for Sunday. The wind speed starts to picks up from late morning tomorrow but the peak excitement occurs right at the end of the operating day and overnight.
Perhaps the van man will be out after all.
The average wind is still not too exciting, certainly a breezy day, the gusts will however be noticeable. From 2100 onwards it gets more challenging, but the the afternoon will probably have its moments.
I would expect some delays, more so for later arrivals.
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Old Jan 20, 2024, 2:38 am
  #41  
 
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Dublin looks brutal on Sunday by the looks of it .. I think I'll look to book a plan B leaving before lunchtime tomorrow .. my 1730 flight would look pretty unlikely with this forecast ( 110km/h Southerly gusts .. so that's about 60 knots ! - https://www.met.ie/warnings/tomorrow )
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Last edited by EvilDoctorK; Jan 20, 2024 at 2:48 am
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Old Jan 20, 2024, 8:05 am
  #42  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
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Amazing that they can’t predict the wind force accurately 48h on advance but that they can predict the climate (temperature) 50 years from now with a very high probability.
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Old Jan 20, 2024, 10:04 am
  #43  
 
Join Date: May 2012
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Originally Posted by Trippelone
Amazing that they can’t predict the wind force accurately 48h on advance but that they can predict the climate (temperature) 50 years from now with a very high probability.
They know both will be very bad, although I suspect the latter will be for more catastrophic than the former.

As yet, there is not a waiver out to allow flight changes for either event.
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Old Jan 20, 2024, 10:15 am
  #44  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
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Looks like the cancellations are starting. My BA1337 from NCL tomorrow has just gone.
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Old Jan 20, 2024, 10:39 am
  #45  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
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Originally Posted by Trippelone
Amazing that they can’t predict the wind force accurately 48h on advance but that they can predict the climate (temperature) 50 years from now with a very high probability.
Climate and weather are very different things. But let's leave the politics elsewhere, and focus on flying in 2024.
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