flarmip

How risky would it be if I were to have 3 separate bookings for the following:

1. MAN-LHR on BA1391 (arrives 08:45)
2. LHR-JER on BA1352 (departs 19:25)
3. JER-PDX starting with BA1339 JER-LHR the following morning.

My understanding is that BA1339 won't run unless BA1352 runs the day before. If BA1391 were to be cancelled or seriously delayed, there are 4 later BA MAN-LHR flights I could take that would still allow me to make BA1352, on top of countless trains. My thinking is that I'd have to be seriously unlucky for none of these 5 MAN-LHR flights to run (or have space left), as well as for the trains to be so FUBAR that I couldn't make it to LHR in time for BA1352.

I already have separate LHR-JER and JER-PDX bookings as above, but my plans have now changed, hence why I'm considering making a third, separate MAN-LHR booking. It's about �50 more expensive for me to add MAN-LHR onto my existing LHR-JER booking vs booking MAN-LHR separately, hence the question.

I'm aware none of this is 100% risk-free but I'm looking to minimise risks to "ALARP".

bisonrav

Very low risk.

zen100

Agreed. When I saw the title, I was expecting a much tighter connection

flarmip

Fair enough - I guess I just wanted to have a second opinion before going ahead with MAN-LHR as a third and separate booking. Not ideal but needs must!

bisonrav

Bit more detail though: the Man to Lhr is really as safe as it could be without a massive issue affecting flights, roads and rail, in which case air travel would be the least of your worries. You have a failsafe in the night stop in JER - I guess one thing to consider is the possibility of fog in JER which may delay the departure lleaving the island but on one ticket it's not a particular problem. If the flight the preceding day doesn't leave Heathrow you'd be able to switch start point of the next day in all likelihood. Can't see any significant risk in this at all.

flarmip

Yes, my connection in LHR off the JER arrival is very tight (70 mins), but I did this in the knowledge that this connection falls under the same booking, and there's a later flight to SEA if need be.