orbitmic

[warning: long post alert!!] While everyone hears a lot about Inflation, it is often as a fairly abstract generic figure (if a scary 2 digit one in the uk and a number of other countries). This article on the itemised inflation in the uk over 12 months as of December has a few scary headline figures (gas up nearly 130%, electricity up 65%, milk up 45%, pasta, butter and eggs up 30ish% etc) but it also highlights to our little community that plane tickets from the uk have seen a price increase if a staggering 44.1%.

For our little community, which 1) consumes a lot more air travel than most 2) probably has many members for whom air travel is a much bigger share of overall household budget than most and 3) is disproportionately interested in the question of “good deals” in air travel: this raises an interesting and i think important question: when is a bad deal a good deal?

https://www.theguardian.com/business...for-households

Let’s perhaps start with the disclaimers:

1) the figure is for all plane tickets from the uk, not just BA. Ok, but a. we won’t get a pure Ba figure and b. we know competition shapes prices anyway, so wherever the hike may start, we know where it ends;

2) the figure is for uk origin only and other countries might have different rates. Inflation has generally been worse in the uk than in most large Western European countries (Germany, Italy, Spain, even more so France which just above half of the uk rate overall) but all have been affected and chances are that the same causes lead to the same effects in terms of itemisation ie huge plane fare increases everywhere;

3) inflation in plane tickets can result from fare increase, fare distribution increase or most likely a combination of both. Let’s say that in 2021, Ba sold £1000 worth of tickets to 10 pax on flight Ba111. Consisting of 6*O class at £50 each, 3*N class at £100 each and 1*Y class at 400. In 2022, they sell the same flight to 10 people for £1400 (40% inflation). It could mean that the distribution is the same but fares have gone up to £70 in O, £140 in N, and £560 in Y; or it could mean that fares are unchanged but in 2022, Ba sold 4*O class at £50, 4*N class at £100, and 2*Y class at £490. In all likelihood, the truth is a mix of fares going up and fewer cheap buckets being offered.

with all those disclaimers in mind, we’re still left with that stark figure: typically, you could get 2 tickets in 2022 for the price of 3 tickets in 2021, and while we all “know” about it, I suspect most of us are only part way into digesting this finding let alone it’s magnitude. And I’m curious how it affects our expectations and habits.

ill start with my own:

- I no longer expect cheapest buckets (notably O in economy, T in premium and I in business) to be offered on all or even most flights to some destinations.

- i expect I (and A if you buy first) to be most affected as economy will always include a greater proportion of price sensitive people and because it takes many more Os which become N than Is which become R to achieve the same result.

- I expect leading discounted business class rates to have significantly increased on most routes not least from airlines which sometimes used to be ultra competitive (eg <1k long haul J). For many destinations where my “good fare threshold was below £1500 or even <£1200, I’ll now consider a fare below £2000 “good” (it would have been “mediocre” and sometimes pretty “bad” before)

- for the first time, I’ve refused to do some invitations entirely where trips would be paid for in Y and I’d previously personally pay the difference but that difference would now be too much for me and I just can’t fathom the trip in y if it’s very long and I have others before and after

- I’ve bought a significantly greater proportion of non alliance flights (both short and long haul, both economy and business) due to significant price differences or putting more emphasis on non stop cheapest fare notably when settling for economy.

in other words, I have started buying a number of tickets I would not even have considered before because at times, yesterday’s bad deals have become the realistic good deals of today.

Am I the only one?

LondonAussie

I used to consider £2000 return to Australia in Business to be a good sale fare. Now £4000 seems good.

adrianlondon

No. Timely post.

I often have to skip most of the "tier point run" threads as I'm only interested in long-hail to Asia, not to America. However, I usually managed something interesting on BA (and Cathay) from either FRA or AMS. Not this time. I'm still doing an ex-EU, and my flight out is CDG-AMS-HKG-TPE but it's on Cathay, the CDG-AMS bit doesn't get me any tier points, and whereas I was usually paying £1600-1800 I've paid £2050 this time.

As I dropped to Bronze prior to covid, and now Blue, the lack of an Avios multiplier (Cathay vs BA) doesn't impact me and I'm keen to try Cathay long-haul (not done it before).

I'm hoping in a year or two I'll be back doing a BA-themed ex-EU to Asia, but if this is what it is now, so be it.

AleTrail

Outstation flyer here (NCL).
Even though the examples given are not entirely BA, for me as a GCH earned mainly through leisure travel on BA, KLM/AF J fares look more and more value for me recently.
I'm likely to drop down to Silver in my next TP year, even with double TPs promotions.

stewaran

Interesting thread.
My fares were much higher last year, but i think a lot to do with coming out of covid and not being able to plan as far ahead, coupled with hugely reduced schedules.
I am experiencing lower fares than last year on almost all my flights booked for this years travel.

Looking forward i think the deals in business will be more plentiful as i dont see business travel returning to previous levels, many people i speak to in are just not traveling for work anymore.

ermis177

Apart from the Bubapest to Hawaii fare i have not seen many good fares in J lately with BA. Most of them are much higher compare to other airlines. AF/KLM and TAP have been very competitive with their J fares from London. On the other hand, every time i flew with BA lately they seem to have full planes so i cannot see why they would lower their J fares.

Duck1981

I am looking to book a flight London to Charlotte in June - £670 return in Eco Plus/ MCE (or equivalent) with United / Delta / American.

I don't think that's extremely expensive, it's worth nowadays to book with whatever has the best price/ timetable without necessarily sticking to one airline.

Have seen plenty of flights in two weeks' time LHR to BOS in Economy and these are £370 to £380 with BA which I think is still fair. On competitive routes you still can get good fares. I agree though that flights in CE in Europe became rather expensive.

T8191

Interesting observations.

You inspired me to look at my spreadsheet of historic trips. OK, a completely different travel pattern to most of you here, with ours regularly involving BA Holidays in J to the Caribbean for a week's All-Inclusive. Since 2016 they have all been [and still are] around the £6k/£6.5k mark [different countries, hotels and accommodation variables]. We have recently booked for 2023 a third visit to the same resort in the DR. In round figures it's ... 2020 £6.6, 2022 £6.6, 2023 £6.6. Perhaps there are other factors in play, but even so ...

Jeedos

Personally, I feel the devaluation of GBP since 2016 (I wonder why....) has hit me harder when spending than the current rates of air fares.

Then again, I was an improverished student in 2016 who balked at Ryanair when priced at 29.99... - but we live in changing times!

Jeedos

I often see Skyteam/ *a offering more competitive fares than oneworld.v

stifle

I bought a D fare for the first time last year.

subject2load

[bold added]

Well you could be right, but I’m really not sure I share your confidence as regards future price levels.

Airlines are looking more closely than ever at their frequencies (and indeed range of destinations) ; so whilst the overall volume of pure business travel will very possibly continue to decline somewhat, we may nevertheless see those reduced biz pax numbers closely aligned to the reduced overall numbers of available seats. It’s true that many leisure travellers (who previously might never have looked beyond Y tickets) are currently ‘treating themselves’ to premium cabin but it’s questionable how long that will continue …….. which in turn could support your theory.

I guess the other, related, point is that with increased fuel costs (albeit now falling again, it would seem ….?) and higher wage costs incurred as a result of the need to attract more staff in a tight labour market, BA and others will place even greater emphasis than normal on yield and load factors.

Retron

Well, after I had to cancel my CW return to Japan, booked in a sale in January last year, the value of the tickets would just stretch to a set of CW tickets to New York instead (although First on the way back was only £300 more than I-bucket CW, so I went for that option).

The same tickets as I had to Japan went from £4000 or so for two to £7200 today, for comparable dates - and that's the cheapest direct flights too.

I flukily found redemption availability to Japan later this year though; for the princely sum of 200,000 Avios, a companion voucher and £1100 in fees, I've got tickets which are presently £7200 to buy. Taking the card fee into account, that works out as 2.9p per Avios.

That's the only good thing about these much higher prices, they make redemptions (if you can get them) much better value!

stewaran

Yes, i agree the reduced frequencies are a big factor in current reduced capacity/price balance,
Im not fully aware, but are BA still are not using all their slots and running slimmer schedules as dictated by LHR capacity.
If that is the case at some point they will have to increase flight numbers or lose the slots guess? and if that is the case then slimmer yields/loads may become more attractive

Modo

For our regular trips to Asia and South thereof I'm seeing inflation far North of 44.1%

We regularly used Finnair to Hong Kong for several weeks from early Jan for approx £440. rarely saw QR at much more than about £500.

But being realisic until Chinese flyers and Russian aispace opens even 80% inflation is a pipe dream...heading in that diection.

Best I could get this year with outbound MAN - KUL in Y return J HKG - MAN in J for £1200.. Simply couldn't justify outbound J even with flexible dates - would pay for several nights in expensive hotels with Club privilege!