BA and Portugal
Jun 3, 2021, 11:25 am
#76
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,281
The problem, unfortunately, is that there is a political logic to the decision.
Going on international holidays is too easy a target - it's simply a curious habit of the flyertalk denizens. If this goes on for much longer than this summer, I wonder if we'll see IAG respond by shifting assets from BA to Vueling.
Going on international holidays is too easy a target - it's simply a curious habit of the flyertalk denizens. If this goes on for much longer than this summer, I wonder if we'll see IAG respond by shifting assets from BA to Vueling.
Jun 3, 2021, 12:09 pm
#78
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 3,595
I wouldn't call it decisiveness - this is all for show.
If there was a genuine concern then parts of the North/Midlands/London would be locked down again. After all the UK's infection rate is growing by 30% a week and the Indian mutation is now dominant in about half the country. This is exponential growth with so far small numbers. We all know where this will go in a few months - and putting Portugal on amber is not going to make one bit of difference.
If there was a genuine concern then parts of the North/Midlands/London would be locked down again. After all the UK's infection rate is growing by 30% a week and the Indian mutation is now dominant in about half the country. This is exponential growth with so far small numbers. We all know where this will go in a few months - and putting Portugal on amber is not going to make one bit of difference.
You could also look at it as complete desperation of Portugal/Spain/Greece/wherever heavily relies on UK tourists for their own economies for continuing to make it extremely easy for Brits to arrive there for a holiday. And given the vast majority of those countries are behind the UK in the vaccination process you could also ask why if such a virulent strain is so prevelant in the UK why are they gambling with their own people's lives by allowing people from the UK there in the first place.
The way I look at it is people want to go on holiday, the UK Government would prefer it if you really didn't. They know people don't like listening to instructions or guidelines and will just do what they want to do. The only way they can encourage the behaviour they'd like to see in people without forcing rules and orders upon people is to make it logistically difficult to travel with all the testing and quarantining that's required and to make it financially difficult by making people question the expense and if they can justify that. Some people will, others won't. But it has the desired effect.
Jun 3, 2021, 12:55 pm
#79
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 963
I think they will wait to see how many people cancel first. Some people will book an amber list holiday (I’m on one in the Carribean right now). Another set of people who booked and got excited about a green list holiday are going to go anyways and just deal with five or ten days of “self isolation” (quotes given perceived rates of non-compliance).
Demand will drop and flights will undoubtedly be consolidated but I doubt the schedule will be decimated. Remember 100K people in the UK flew to Spain the week Spain lifted inbound restrictions. I imagine 75%+ were on holiday.
Demand will drop and flights will undoubtedly be consolidated but I doubt the schedule will be decimated. Remember 100K people in the UK flew to Spain the week Spain lifted inbound restrictions. I imagine 75%+ were on holiday.
Jun 3, 2021, 1:25 pm
#80
Join Date: Mar 2020
Programs: British Airways GGL/CCR, Hilton Diamond & Marriott Gold
Posts: 2,612
I think they will wait to see how many people cancel first. Some people will book an amber list holiday (I’m on one in the Carribean right now). Another set of people who booked and got excited about a green list holiday are going to go anyways and just deal with five or ten days of “self isolation” (quotes given perceived rates of non-compliance).
Demand will drop and flights will undoubtedly be consolidated but I doubt the schedule will be decimated. Remember 100K people in the UK flew to Spain the week Spain lifted inbound restrictions. I imagine 75%+ were on holiday.
Demand will drop and flights will undoubtedly be consolidated but I doubt the schedule will be decimated. Remember 100K people in the UK flew to Spain the week Spain lifted inbound restrictions. I imagine 75%+ were on holiday.
Jun 3, 2021, 1:44 pm
#82
Join Date: Mar 2020
Programs: British Airways GGL/CCR, Hilton Diamond & Marriott Gold
Posts: 2,612
Jun 3, 2021, 2:15 pm
#83
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: BRS
Programs: BA Gold, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 4,993
Jun 3, 2021, 2:20 pm
#84
Join Date: Mar 2020
Programs: British Airways GGL/CCR, Hilton Diamond & Marriott Gold
Posts: 2,612
The test on arrival and upto 24 hours in hotel isolation take the buzz out of this one....
Jun 3, 2021, 2:28 pm
#85
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,237
I wouldn't call it decisiveness - this is all for show.
If there was a genuine concern then parts of the North/Midlands/London would be locked down again. After all the UK's infection rate is growing by 30% a week and the Indian mutation is now dominant in about half the country. This is exponential growth with so far small numbers. We all know where this will go in a few months - and putting Portugal on amber is not going to make one bit of difference.
If there was a genuine concern then parts of the North/Midlands/London would be locked down again. After all the UK's infection rate is growing by 30% a week and the Indian mutation is now dominant in about half the country. This is exponential growth with so far small numbers. We all know where this will go in a few months - and putting Portugal on amber is not going to make one bit of difference.
Robert Boyle has put it very well and eloquently in his blog post, I find myself agreeing with him a lot.
It’s clear to me that the government decided to abandon any pretence of following an objective framework for putting countries into categories based on risk. Even if you accept that Portugal might have switched categories, Malta’s case rate is now less than half that of Portugal when it was put on the green list, yet it was left as amber.
The reasons given for reclassifying Portugal also don’t make much sense, if they were sticking to the same classification criteria. When the country was put on the green list, the case rate was 32.7 weekly cases per 100,000. The latest figure is 37.4, a 14% increase. Grant Shapps chose to focus on the test positivity rate, because that shows a bigger percentage increase. That’s because the volume of testing has gone down a bit. But Portugal has one of the highest rates of testing in Europe, so the case rate is a much better indicator. In any event, he claimed that the positivity rate had “nearly doubled”. In the data the government published to support rating it as green, the rate was 0.7%. It is now 1.1%, unchanged since May 14.
[...]
A second reason was cited. Grant Shapps said that “there is a sort of Nepal mutation of the India variant”. A government statement said that there had been 68 cases of the Delta (India) variant recorded in Portugal. The UK has had 16,038 confirmed cases of the Delta variant and it is now the dominant strain in the UK, so 68 cases doesn’t seem to be more than a drop in the ocean. But apparently some of the cases had a mutation “previously seen in Nepal”. What is this Nepal variant? The WHO don’t seem to have heard of it.
[...]
A far more simple explanation for why Portugal was moved to the amber list is that it was the only destination on the green list with any significant leisure travel volumes. The government has decided it really doesn’t want anyone travelling overseas at all, and if they do travel, they don’t want them returning home without having to quarantine.
They talked about a “safety-first” approach and made it clear that their priority is to “protect the unlock”. That’s their slogan for preserving the final relaxation of domestic restrictions planned for the 21st June.
That is a perfectly valid position to take, and one that opinion polls show is popular with voters. I just wish they had been honest that they were doing a U-turn and tearing up the traffic light system, or at least suspending it until further notice.
The reasons given for reclassifying Portugal also don’t make much sense, if they were sticking to the same classification criteria. When the country was put on the green list, the case rate was 32.7 weekly cases per 100,000. The latest figure is 37.4, a 14% increase. Grant Shapps chose to focus on the test positivity rate, because that shows a bigger percentage increase. That’s because the volume of testing has gone down a bit. But Portugal has one of the highest rates of testing in Europe, so the case rate is a much better indicator. In any event, he claimed that the positivity rate had “nearly doubled”. In the data the government published to support rating it as green, the rate was 0.7%. It is now 1.1%, unchanged since May 14.
[...]
A second reason was cited. Grant Shapps said that “there is a sort of Nepal mutation of the India variant”. A government statement said that there had been 68 cases of the Delta (India) variant recorded in Portugal. The UK has had 16,038 confirmed cases of the Delta variant and it is now the dominant strain in the UK, so 68 cases doesn’t seem to be more than a drop in the ocean. But apparently some of the cases had a mutation “previously seen in Nepal”. What is this Nepal variant? The WHO don’t seem to have heard of it.
[...]
A far more simple explanation for why Portugal was moved to the amber list is that it was the only destination on the green list with any significant leisure travel volumes. The government has decided it really doesn’t want anyone travelling overseas at all, and if they do travel, they don’t want them returning home without having to quarantine.
They talked about a “safety-first” approach and made it clear that their priority is to “protect the unlock”. That’s their slogan for preserving the final relaxation of domestic restrictions planned for the 21st June.
That is a perfectly valid position to take, and one that opinion polls show is popular with voters. I just wish they had been honest that they were doing a U-turn and tearing up the traffic light system, or at least suspending it until further notice.
Jun 3, 2021, 3:28 pm
#88
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Falkirk, Scotland,VS Red, BA Gold, HH Diamond,UK Amex Plat
Programs: Master of the Privy Purse des Muccis
Posts: 17,911
Hi,
I am thinking of the republic of ireland now in late july as by then they will allow uk citizens in with littke restrictions?
Otherwise a trip to london is on the cards for me
or could do Gibraltar then london
Regards tbs
I am thinking of the republic of ireland now in late july as by then they will allow uk citizens in with littke restrictions?
Otherwise a trip to london is on the cards for me
or could do Gibraltar then london
Regards tbs
Jun 3, 2021, 3:54 pm
#89
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,061
I think this decision is pretty obvious to interpret. Almost everything in the UK is pointing to a delay to the 21 June easing of domestic restrictions. This will affect close to 100% of people, and will make the government look bad in the eyes of the public (and voters). So they’re showing that they’re doing everything in their power to allow it - even if it doesn’t work, they can save some face by showing that they tried. The number of annoyed people now unable to go to Portugal is tiny in relative terms. And the thing is that they’re right - they’ll win much more support with this move than with the opposite.
Jun 3, 2021, 4:06 pm
#90
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LHR, LGW
Programs: BAEC
Posts: 3,436
The football final being held in Porto with more English fans than any other nation was always going to end in disaster. It should have been held in Wembley but hopefully Abramovich enjoyed his night out! Portugal was always doomed, I tell ya, doomed (any dads army fans?!) after that night.
If you do make it abroad this year, count yourself lucky. Roll on 2022.
If you do make it abroad this year, count yourself lucky. Roll on 2022.