Greg66

Time to get those pieces of string out!

This is prompted by me having yesterday booked return flights on BA to Canada, for March 2022. These are the first flights I’ve booked in a while (cancelled a few, mind you).

I’m fairly optimistic that by then air travel should be more or less back to normal, by which I mean pre-Covid normal. No need for a special reason to leave the UK, no masks in the airport or onboard, no restrictions on entry into the destination country, no quarantine on entry nor on return to the UK, and no inordinately long queues at the borders.

Fairly optimistic. Obviously this excludes a possible vaccine resistant variant of the virus, and assumes that the current vaccination drive continues on course.

Interested to know whether my subjective fairly optimistic POV is considered an outlier (either way).

Nephoi

To the old normal? Never

to the new normal? Not before late 2022

mikeyfly

Bloggers will tell you - USA by July - I guess they've got an agenda..... I'm not so hopeful !

onobond

Oh yes, there seems to be an endless line of virus mutations presenting, thus complicating future travel. One also has to figure how many less "normal" flights we'll see in the future, when many meetings seem to have done well on Zoom etc.

We'll be talking of Pre-Covid travel in terms of "Those were the days" long before it turns better less evil

crazyanglaisy

I'm generally a pessimist by nature, but my view is closely aligned with Nephoi's on this one. I can't see the normalisation of international travel this year, and am not confident that things will be much different for most of next year.

This time last year, I would have been shocked to think that we'd be in the position we are in now when it comes to the state of air travel. But here we are. Even with the increasing positive impact of vaccines and a future role for vaccine passports, I foresee that things are only going to change very slowly, especially in certain parts of the world. I can't see business travel picking up in any significant way this year, and meeting the requirements to travel abroad for holidays is currently complex, prohibitively expensive for most people and families, and, in my view, very stressful (at least from a UK perspective). Governments around the world appear to be particularly wary of the risks associated with international travel, seemingly above almost any other virus-related risks that are currently on their policy agendas, and this seems unlikely to change any time soon.

VSLover

agreed but not surprised given most bloggers are rather myopic depending on where they are based!

but its easy for the US to look close to normal given the amount of domestic travel...but those of us here in the UK can easily see a different picture which is not helped by the UK return requirements form green countries--and i fully expect many EU member states to post reciprocal requirements whenever they publish their guidance on opening (tomorrow?).

Bohinjska Bistrica

I'd be surprised if it's this year unfortunately.

Even the green list countries require a predeparture test before return and then a subsequent PCR following arrival. And of course the PCR before leaving the UK. To be honest, I just can't be bothered with the hassle of it all. Much more a of a deterrent to me than anything else. I'm comfortable with the risks but find the required administration off putting, not to mention the additional costs.

We only stand a chance at something approaching normal when the UK Government drops the testing requirements for vaccinated travellers.

BOH

At some point I think the world is going to have to accept we have done what we can and that once the elderly and vulnerable have all been vaccinated then we have reduced the risk to an acceptable level. After all, X thousand people die on the roads every year, thousands from flu, thousands from alcohol abuse, many from obesity but our approach to all these is mainly about education and preventing what we can.

The longer term damage to mental health for many and the effects of not being able to get routine screening fand treatment or things like cancer and heart type issues will soon dwarf the death rates for Covid which are now down to <10 per day.

Personally I feel the time to do this is now, notwithstanding there will still be some restrictions, ie travel to / from India at the moment but with so many now vaccinated surely it is time to open up travel again?

Cspnvdl

As confidence that the vaccines are actually effective against the variants continues to grow, I would hope that some of the current caution will start lifting away. Assuming that confidence continues to hold, and as more and more of the population gets vaccinated I would hope that maybe the testing requirements for green list countries and vaccinated travellers falls away later in the year.

(As a caveat however I am generally an optimistic when it comes to these things)

PGberkshire

Never....as in the dynamics have shifted and won't go back.
Volumes may recover, but they type of flying (business v personal) has changed

nivsy

Excuse the direction change a little but here in Australia I have decided to fly interstate from PER to ADL and back next week. The amount of forms plus Apps that one has to complete makes me wonder if people will really be bothered especially when quite a substantial number of Aussies have said no to the vaccine. They don't though to be honest really appreciate the impact of COVID on their doorstep.

I had booked a multicity with QF for July...covering a few Aussie states. Now dreading all the forms and Apps for that. QF offered really cheap seats a wee while back. Now under a week before I fly to ADL and I guess maybe half the 737 occupied. A bit more on the return. Yes it will take a while no matter where you are for normalisation to resume if indeed it ever does.

Nephoi

can you explain that? What has changed exactly? More leisure flights? Less F and J? More Y+ ? (Most £££ per Square Meter)? Less frequencies but more destinations?

Cymro

I think the basic experience will be relatively normal by Q2 2022.

"Normal" means no mask mandate to and from green list countries, rapid biosecurity checks fully integrated with passport checks, and the great majority of popular destinations being green listed. Amber might largely disappear and red will continue to exist for another couple of years at least.

The actual market dynamics and the balance of business/leisure travel, route choices and frequencies, ease of connection, etc., will take a lot longer to settle down (3-5 years).

Professor Yaffle

IMO this point has long passed, with the over-50s jabbed and the NHS 'protected' (which was the point, after all). It is high time the public were given back control over their own attitudes to risk. However with the government and press paranoi around variants (all of which is so far completely unjustified) we will be in limbo for a while I feel. I feel so jealous of the American's current position on this - controls over vaccinated people hav basically been removed. If only we had an effective opposition to hold the government to account over these matters...

Duck1981

The press paranoia is the worst thing at all:

- there is an Indian variant
- it might spread 50% faster - the NHS will be overwhelmed
- there will be 80000 in hospital by summer
- the opening is in tatters
- oh the vaccines might work
- but hold on, in India dead people are thrown in the Ganges river (ok, India and UK cannot be compared which should be known to everyone who ever stepped on the Indian subcontinent, but whatever its a good headline)
- the will be a third wave
- oh wait hospitalizations are not going up - doesn't matter lets make so much fuss that whole Europe thinks the UK is soon in lockdown again and doesn't let us in
- ah now we have confidence the vaccines work
- ok lockdown easing back on track
- ok, we should not be so nervous about a new strain
- [repeat for every new strain in three month intervals]