For those with crystal ball - Resumption JNB?
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Teaneck, NJ
Programs: AA L.T. Plat; UA Platinum
Posts: 327
For those with crystal ball - Resumption JNB?
Does anyone have any hope of LHR-JNB service returning in August? Booked NYC-JNB via JNB on BA and then 4Z to Lusaka for mid August. In a way, I secretly hope that BA would put me on QR since I've had such wonderful experience with QR. But would rather avoid the drama.
#2
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: UK
Programs: BA Gold, HHonours, SPG, AVIS
Posts: 526
BA recently pulled flights to JNB until 23rd June, and CPT until 1st July, and I suspect that they will slip further. A lot depends on the UK government and their traffic light system and whether any senior minister has a tripped booked to SA whether flights will be allowed to resume.
The SA vaccination program has been very slow, but, they are meant to be starting the over 60's with the J&J jab in May subject to sufficient supply
The SA vaccination program has been very slow, but, they are meant to be starting the over 60's with the J&J jab in May subject to sufficient supply
#5
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: London, UK
Programs: IHG Platinum; Marriott Silver; Avis president's: Hertz President's
Posts: 225
I have LHR-JNB booked for last November, February, Early June, late Jene, The flights have been cancelled, rebooked to the same day (7pm swapped to 9pm, 9pm to to 7pm, equipment swaps, the full set. One flight was cancelled and rebooked for the same day twice, and the last cancellation was only 2 days after the prior rebooking to a flight 2 hours before the cancelled one (an equipment swap from a 787 to a 777, which I thought a good sign, as it implied better demand. As well as the June bookings (which I rate at 80/20 to be cancelled) I am booked in November (50/50 I would think) and next January (more likely to actually happen than not).
I would think August is about 60/30 in favour of cancellation. However with the Lions Tour in July/August, there may be a bit more political pressure to allow travel to/return from South Africa, including the odd ministerial junket (paid for by donors, of course). Bizarely, that may mean late July/early August is less likely to be cancelled than late August.
Although my crystal ball has failed to pick a lottery ticket or race winner for years!
I would think August is about 60/30 in favour of cancellation. However with the Lions Tour in July/August, there may be a bit more political pressure to allow travel to/return from South Africa, including the odd ministerial junket (paid for by donors, of course). Bizarely, that may mean late July/early August is less likely to be cancelled than late August.
Although my crystal ball has failed to pick a lottery ticket or race winner for years!
#6
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Home Counties, UK
Programs: BA Silver
Posts: 536
I moved my July/Aug DUR trip to next Feb. Their vaccination programme is dire according to relatives and we were just happier at the thought of changing our dates. Things hopefully will be much better by then ... perhaps ...possibly!
#7
Join Date: Jul 2014
Programs: BAEC, VS Flying Club
Posts: 790
Surely SA is unlikely to come off the red list as long as the SA variant is still circulating and, seemingly, largely resistant to existing vaccines?
Witness the rapid deployment of surge testing whenever even a single case is identified to understand the scale of concern about it.
Which, I’d have thought, realistically means SA is out of bounds until new booster jabs are available and widely taken up - likely autumn at the earliest.
Witness the rapid deployment of surge testing whenever even a single case is identified to understand the scale of concern about it.
Which, I’d have thought, realistically means SA is out of bounds until new booster jabs are available and widely taken up - likely autumn at the earliest.
#8
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Suffolk
Programs: BAEC Silver
Posts: 120
Surely SA is unlikely to come off the red list as long as the SA variant is still circulating and, seemingly, largely resistant to existing vaccines?
Witness the rapid deployment of surge testing whenever even a single case is identified to understand the scale of concern about it.
Which, I’d have thought, realistically means SA is out of bounds until new booster jabs are available and widely taken up - likely autumn at the earliest.
Witness the rapid deployment of surge testing whenever even a single case is identified to understand the scale of concern about it.
Which, I’d have thought, realistically means SA is out of bounds until new booster jabs are available and widely taken up - likely autumn at the earliest.
#10
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Teaneck, NJ
Programs: AA L.T. Plat; UA Platinum
Posts: 327
Exactly what I was thinking. So at least with a paid ticket, they may rebook on a carrier flying the route or refund the ticket so I can buy ticket on a different carrier.
#11
Join Date: Jan 2021
Posts: 29
The outgoing HC to SA said flights would resume once they have more data to confirm that vaccines against the so called SA variant are still effective. From what I've read they will all still prevent serious disease and hospitalisation.
The Lions tour, and the invitation to the SA president to the G7 summit offers some hope, but a lot will depend on how quick they can vaccinate through the winter months.
They are going to be using J&J which helps being a one shotter, so fingers crossed. I'm due to go in September too so I'm hoping it will be amber by then rather than red.
The Lions tour, and the invitation to the SA president to the G7 summit offers some hope, but a lot will depend on how quick they can vaccinate through the winter months.
They are going to be using J&J which helps being a one shotter, so fingers crossed. I'm due to go in September too so I'm hoping it will be amber by then rather than red.
#12
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: London Stratford, E7
Programs: BAEC Gold! Thanks to FT
Posts: 3,367
Surely SA is unlikely to come off the red list as long as the SA variant is still circulating and, seemingly, largely resistant to existing vaccines?
Witness the rapid deployment of surge testing whenever even a single case is identified to understand the scale of concern about it.
Which, I’d have thought, realistically means SA is out of bounds until new booster jabs are available and widely taken up - likely autumn at the earliest.
Witness the rapid deployment of surge testing whenever even a single case is identified to understand the scale of concern about it.
Which, I’d have thought, realistically means SA is out of bounds until new booster jabs are available and widely taken up - likely autumn at the earliest.
New data is coming out all the time and vaccine is showing more and more that it stops transmission to a certain extent so this might put SA on the Amber list.
#13
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Central Scotland
Programs: BAEC Gold, Miles & More Silver, Privilege Club Silver
Posts: 544
Mrs B and I are booked for JNB at the end of January on the A380. We are staying positive that we will fly and it will be on the A380. Otherwise our watching of all the YouTube videos on Kruger will have been in vain and have to settle for the cold rain at home rather than the warm rain in South Africa.
#14
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: RDU
Posts: 2,262
BA57 (the 9pm LHR-JNB) seems to be operating most nights, presumably as a cargo flight. When looking at loads for June 23 (current resumption date for BA55, the earlier flight) into July, they are incredibly empty.
Wonder if the airways between UK-SA open up if BA will proceed with one of the two flights, since adding a few pax to a cargo-focused flight doesn't seem to be very costly.
Wonder if the airways between UK-SA open up if BA will proceed with one of the two flights, since adding a few pax to a cargo-focused flight doesn't seem to be very costly.
#15
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,269
BA57 (the 9pm LHR-JNB) seems to be operating most nights, presumably as a cargo flight. When looking at loads for June 23 (current resumption date for BA55, the earlier flight) into July, they are incredibly empty.
Wonder if the airways between UK-SA open up if BA will proceed with one of the two flights, since adding a few pax to a cargo-focused flight doesn't seem to be very costly.
Wonder if the airways between UK-SA open up if BA will proceed with one of the two flights, since adding a few pax to a cargo-focused flight doesn't seem to be very costly.