How will BA react to JetBlue getting LHR slots for S21?
Apr 3, 2021, 9:06 am
#31
Join Date: Oct 2005
Programs: BA GGL & GfL, AA LTP, Marriott (sigh) Ambassador, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 3,232
You are living in a dreamworld if you think you'll see £800 return in Business Class, given that APD and Heathrow taxes will eat up over £200.
What's the fuel cost to go an A321LR to New York and back? $100,000 at a guess. The aircraft has 160 seats (22+138). You do the maths.
Throw in running costs for an aircraft with a list price of $130m (let's ignore discounts but also maintenance costs) depreciated over 20 years, so that's over $100k per week to recover on top.
What's the fuel cost to go an A321LR to New York and back? $100,000 at a guess. The aircraft has 160 seats (22+138). You do the maths.
Throw in running costs for an aircraft with a list price of $130m (let's ignore discounts but also maintenance costs) depreciated over 20 years, so that's over $100k per week to recover on top.
but this makes sense now since i was confused why you would be referencing LAX-JFK fares ie "Comparing with fares from LA to NYC...."
Apr 3, 2021, 9:26 am
#32
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: 59K
Posts: 2,301
You are living in a dreamworld if you think you'll see £800 return in Business Class, given that APD and Heathrow taxes will eat up over £200.
What's the fuel cost to go an A321LR to New York and back? $100,000 at a guess. The aircraft has 160 seats (22+138). You do the maths.
What's the fuel cost to go an A321LR to New York and back? $100,000 at a guess. The aircraft has 160 seats (22+138). You do the maths.
Apr 3, 2021, 10:57 am
#33
Join Date: Mar 2020
Programs: British Airways GGL/CCR, Hilton Diamond & Marriott Gold
Posts: 2,612
well thats a tad misleading because very few leisure travelers will buy a fare for today/tomorrow which is the only time the B6 transcon is showing any return fares over 1500GBP. all other advanced purchase fares generally hover just below 800GBP for a return in mint.
it is obviously very popular otherwise B6 would not have expanded mint so far beyond the original LAX/SFO transcons.
it is obviously very popular otherwise B6 would not have expanded mint so far beyond the original LAX/SFO transcons.
Apr 3, 2021, 1:43 pm
#34
Join Date: Nov 2016
Programs: Nectar Card
Posts: 1,092
From 20th September till end of S21 they have 3 daily pairs at LHR. Add this to the 2 daily pairs they have been awarded at LGW and 3 daily pairs STN, then this seems to be a reasonable size operation. (All be it spread over different airports)
Could we see this as 5 daily from LHR/LGW to JFK and 3 daily STN to BOS? Who knows at this stage. While the mixed airport approach is not ideal, I am not sure it matters to some travelers, particularly US based that only need to get to LON.
Could we see this as 5 daily from LHR/LGW to JFK and 3 daily STN to BOS? Who knows at this stage. While the mixed airport approach is not ideal, I am not sure it matters to some travelers, particularly US based that only need to get to LON.
You are living in a dreamworld if you think you'll see £800 return in Business Class, given that APD and Heathrow taxes will eat up over £200.
What's the fuel cost to go an A321LR to New York and back? $100,000 at a guess. The aircraft has 160 seats (22+138). You do the maths.
Throw in running costs for an aircraft with a list price of $130m (let's ignore discounts but also maintenance costs) depreciated over 20 years, so that's over $100k per week to recover on top.
What's the fuel cost to go an A321LR to New York and back? $100,000 at a guess. The aircraft has 160 seats (22+138). You do the maths.
Throw in running costs for an aircraft with a list price of $130m (let's ignore discounts but also maintenance costs) depreciated over 20 years, so that's over $100k per week to recover on top.
Last edited by futuramadramallama; Apr 4, 2021 at 4:43 am Reason: Clarity
Apr 3, 2021, 4:31 pm
#35
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: London
Programs: BA, VS, HH, IHG, MB, MR
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Whoa, that’s good.
Good job I hire people who understand aviation to write that side of HFP!
I base my fuel calcs on what a VS 747 captain was telling me at the retirement event, but those are gas guzzling monsters of course :-)
Good job I hire people who understand aviation to write that side of HFP!
I base my fuel calcs on what a VS 747 captain was telling me at the retirement event, but those are gas guzzling monsters of course :-)
Apr 3, 2021, 5:23 pm
#36
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: BOS
Programs: BA - Blue > Bronze > Silver > Bronze > Blue
Posts: 6,812
Doing the maths then at 22 and 138 and 14-20k in costa per flight, you can see why so many people believe that narrow bodies on long haul will be a hit.
A business cabin full of £750 one way fares, will basically cover costs of the full aircraft and they’ll be able to fill that up at those prices all day.
Assuming they average out at conservative 1k per leg thats 22k, self out the economy at 200 and you’re looking at 100k or so against that 15-20k operating costs.
I’m looking forward to the service immensely having enjoyed their basic domestic product, just hoping they run some 6-700 dollar fares BOS-LGW!
A business cabin full of £750 one way fares, will basically cover costs of the full aircraft and they’ll be able to fill that up at those prices all day.
Assuming they average out at conservative 1k per leg thats 22k, self out the economy at 200 and you’re looking at 100k or so against that 15-20k operating costs.
I’m looking forward to the service immensely having enjoyed their basic domestic product, just hoping they run some 6-700 dollar fares BOS-LGW!
Apr 3, 2021, 6:43 pm
#37
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Apr 3, 2021, 6:50 pm
#38
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: New York, NY
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Apr 4, 2021, 1:36 am
#39
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Join Date: Jul 2002
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The key impact will be a continuation of the Norwegian impact on BA’s leisure pricing. That has to be a good thing.
I wasn’t blown away by the product but it’s an improvement on anything BA offers apart from Club Suite.
I wasn’t blown away by the product but it’s an improvement on anything BA offers apart from Club Suite.
Apr 4, 2021, 2:30 am
#40
Moderator: British Airways Executive Club, Marriott Bonvoy
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Though to be fair on our esteemed PfH correspondent, "you do the maths" was based on the cost of a return ticket, so we have to acknowledge he was really actually only half an order of magnitude out., 
Fuel cost of about $2k/hour for a large narrowbody goes into the "stuff I learned today" QI file.
Fuel cost of about $2k/hour for a large narrowbody goes into the "stuff I learned today" QI file.
Apr 4, 2021, 3:55 am
#41
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 23
To be fair airline economics are notoriously complex, it’s never as simple as just looking at fuel burn. But here is a few comparisons:
Fuel Burn:
On the 747 we used to burn about 10T/hr. I believe this is much much lower on the newer models so something like 6.5T/hr on a A350. From what I have heard a A321neo burns around 2T/hr, so a significant saving there.
Overflight/Landing charges:
At JFK and many places (although not Heathrow) the landing charges are based on weight and in JFK are for example $6.95 per 1000lbs. A 747 max Take-off weight was 397T, A350-1000 is 319T and an A321 is 101T. So around 1/4 of the cost of a 747, and a third of the cost of a 350.
Staffing:
Pilots in general are paid more on a wide-bodied aircraft, however our American (legacy) friends are also paid significantly more than in Europe, so it’s a bit of a draw. But on Cabin Crew, we used to have 15 on a 74, in comparison to 6 on a 321, so a significant saving there.
Revenue:
The config of the 747 on the LON-NY route was almost without exception 14/86/30/145 and believe me it was always the front that was full! JetBlue are proposing 22/138, so taking premium seats, it is almost 1/5 of a 74. I know the 350 is 56/56/219 and for this reason I think it is never going to find it’s way on NY and you are much more likely to see the 777W at 8/76/40/130. Which with First and club is nearly 4 times the premium seats of JetBlue.
Slots:
I realise now is a bizarre time, however assuming things start heading back to the way things were, for the same amount of premium seats on a 777 you would need to use 4 slots. These slots would have to come from somewhere, so you would need to pull another route. Before the madness BA were flying 8 flights a day to NY, all on heavy metal, for premium seats, you would need 32 JetBlue config A321’s. (24 more daily slot pairs) That isn’t feasible. Likewise if JetBlue is highly successful, to take more of BA’s traffic it will need to expand. To expand at LHR if the traffic comes back is likely to be a very difficult and costly exercise!
In summary, I think they could have a very successful niche A321 operation at LHR, but that is all it is likely to be, niche. If they want to expand, they are likely to look at other London airports (most likely LGW)
Fuel Burn:
On the 747 we used to burn about 10T/hr. I believe this is much much lower on the newer models so something like 6.5T/hr on a A350. From what I have heard a A321neo burns around 2T/hr, so a significant saving there.
Overflight/Landing charges:
At JFK and many places (although not Heathrow) the landing charges are based on weight and in JFK are for example $6.95 per 1000lbs. A 747 max Take-off weight was 397T, A350-1000 is 319T and an A321 is 101T. So around 1/4 of the cost of a 747, and a third of the cost of a 350.
Staffing:
Pilots in general are paid more on a wide-bodied aircraft, however our American (legacy) friends are also paid significantly more than in Europe, so it’s a bit of a draw. But on Cabin Crew, we used to have 15 on a 74, in comparison to 6 on a 321, so a significant saving there.
Revenue:
The config of the 747 on the LON-NY route was almost without exception 14/86/30/145 and believe me it was always the front that was full! JetBlue are proposing 22/138, so taking premium seats, it is almost 1/5 of a 74. I know the 350 is 56/56/219 and for this reason I think it is never going to find it’s way on NY and you are much more likely to see the 777W at 8/76/40/130. Which with First and club is nearly 4 times the premium seats of JetBlue.
Slots:
I realise now is a bizarre time, however assuming things start heading back to the way things were, for the same amount of premium seats on a 777 you would need to use 4 slots. These slots would have to come from somewhere, so you would need to pull another route. Before the madness BA were flying 8 flights a day to NY, all on heavy metal, for premium seats, you would need 32 JetBlue config A321’s. (24 more daily slot pairs) That isn’t feasible. Likewise if JetBlue is highly successful, to take more of BA’s traffic it will need to expand. To expand at LHR if the traffic comes back is likely to be a very difficult and costly exercise!
In summary, I think they could have a very successful niche A321 operation at LHR, but that is all it is likely to be, niche. If they want to expand, they are likely to look at other London airports (most likely LGW)
Apr 4, 2021, 4:50 am
#42
Join Date: Nov 2016
Programs: Nectar Card
Posts: 1,092
Slots:
I realise now is a bizarre time, however assuming things start heading back to the way things were, for the same amount of premium seats on a 777 you would need to use 4 slots. These slots would have to come from somewhere, so you would need to pull another route. Before the madness BA were flying 8 flights a day to NY, all on heavy metal, for premium seats, you would need 32 JetBlue config A321’s. (24 more daily slot pairs) That isn’t feasible. Likewise if JetBlue is highly successful, to take more of BA’s traffic it will need to expand. To expand at LHR if the traffic comes back is likely to be a very difficult and costly exercise!
In summary, I think they could have a very successful niche A321 operation at LHR, but that is all it is likely to be, niche. If they want to expand, they are likely to look at other London airports (most likely LGW)
I realise now is a bizarre time, however assuming things start heading back to the way things were, for the same amount of premium seats on a 777 you would need to use 4 slots. These slots would have to come from somewhere, so you would need to pull another route. Before the madness BA were flying 8 flights a day to NY, all on heavy metal, for premium seats, you would need 32 JetBlue config A321’s. (24 more daily slot pairs) That isn’t feasible. Likewise if JetBlue is highly successful, to take more of BA’s traffic it will need to expand. To expand at LHR if the traffic comes back is likely to be a very difficult and costly exercise!
In summary, I think they could have a very successful niche A321 operation at LHR, but that is all it is likely to be, niche. If they want to expand, they are likely to look at other London airports (most likely LGW)
I wonder what kind of frequencies B6 would have to run to be at optimum efficiency (with ground staff costs, gate leases, etc.) and to be attractive to OPM-flyers. In turn, I wonder which London airport (other than LHR) is both an attractive substitute and would have slots available. (Is it automatically LGW?)
Apr 4, 2021, 3:16 pm
#43
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: somewhere north of stateside...
Posts: 4,152
Very much agree, and we may see an expansion. Pre-COVID, BA did not always price trans-Atlantic one-way fares in Economy and Premium Economy at approx. half a round-trip, but with B6 in the market I expect we'll see these stick around.
Apr 4, 2021, 3:52 pm
#44
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Looking at a video about the Mint suites at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEUU5TMzYZ0 , underwhelming vs BA's products is not the word I would be using
Apr 5, 2021, 1:28 am
#45
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Spitalfields, London
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And that is peachiness personified... But, TO ME, inward facing seats are a no no. Hence TO ME it is an underwhelming hard product.
Delicious. But still not for ME. Oddly enough, I have my own opinion and am not afraid to state it.
Do a double-take all you like.. But, mind you don't strain your neck too much whilst twisting to look out of the window of that seat that is angled away from the window... You know, after all your double double-takes.
Delicious. But still not for ME. Oddly enough, I have my own opinion and am not afraid to state it.
Do a double-take all you like.. But, mind you don't strain your neck too much whilst twisting to look out of the window of that seat that is angled away from the window... You know, after all your double double-takes.
Re the window, it’s not like VS UC as there is no immediate wall and you can look out of the window by looking sideways rather than behind you, if that makes sense. So the contortions, I do not believe they will be neccessary.
