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Will there be mass cancellations for Lockdown 3?

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Will there be mass cancellations for Lockdown 3?

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Old Dec 30, 2020, 1:14 pm
  #16  
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It is not binary. Frequencies and aircraft size may also be used to adapt. Perhaps a daily flight drops to 1-2x week and somesuch.

Anyone traveling simply needs to be adaptable and flexible. This is especially true for those who may find themselves caught somewhere with no easy path to return.
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Old Dec 30, 2020, 1:30 pm
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by mikeyfly
Presumably routes where people will ignore the tier four rules and continue flying will continue to operate *cough* Dubai *cough*

Just checked tonight’s 105 seat map in expertflyer - four empty in J a dozen in W and a handful in Y
Not all of which will originate in tier 4, I would assume this will include at least some international to international transfer....
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 2:50 am
  #18  
 
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I'm well aware of the Tier 4 travel restrictions, but up until midnight I was able to travel out of LHR as live within a Tier 3 area. That's now changed and we're in Tier 4.

I've been trying to keep track of a couple of bookings I have for travel soon. One in particularly to the Canaries. If London and most of the UK population remain within Tier 4, how can BA manage to operate even a much less frequent service? Surely there's very little international to international connection on these. That combined with very few people ex UK allowed to travel does in my mind point towards mass cancellations for majority leisure routes such as this whilst Tier 4 is in place. I can't imagine there are enough Canaries based residents travelling to keep these routes going for now. Any ideas of what's happening inside BA regarding plans for flights such as these ?!
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 2:52 am
  #19  
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Originally Posted by northeastflyer
I'm well aware of the Tier 4 travel restrictions, but up until midnight I was able to travel out of LHR as live within a Tier 3 area. That's now changed and we're in Tier 4. I've been trying to keep track of a couple of bookings I hdvd have. One in particularly to the Canaries soon. If London and most of the UK population remain within Tier 4, how can BA manage to operate even a much less frequent service? Surely there's very little international to international connection on these. That combined with very few people ftom the UK allowed to travel does in my mind point to mass cancellations for majority leisure routes such as this whilst Tier 4 is in place for the majority. I can't imagine there's enough Canaries based residents travelling to keep these routes going for now. Any ideas of what's happening inside BA regarding these issues?!
No-one is banned from travelling. You are simply banned from leaving home.

(Taken to extremes .... the law states clearly that none of the stipulations apply to a homeless person, so a homeless person can, totally legally, rock up at T5 and fly somewhere.)

If you are prepared to pay the Ł200 fine for being outside your home for a reason not on the list, BA will be happy to fly you. I suspect if you've paid Ł5k-Ł10k for a Caribbean, Maldives or Middle East holiday then Ł200 will not deter you.
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 2:57 am
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by Raffles
No-one is banned from travelling. You are simply banned from leaving home.

(Taken to extremes .... the law states clearly that none of the stipulations apply to a homeless person, so a homeless person can, totally legally, rock up at T5 and fly somewhere.)

If you are prepared to pay the Ł200 fine for being outside your home for a reason not on the list, BA will be happy to fly you. I suspect if you've paid Ł5k-Ł10k for a Caribbean, Maldives or Middle East holiday then Ł200 will not deter you.
​​​​​​UK government rules clearly don't allow foreign travel for leisure if you live in a Tier 4 area. I think everyone agrees on that. I'm not talking about valid business travel or other allowable reasons. These routes are almost all leisure.
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 3:05 am
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by oceanscape
that’s because international travellers in transit is NOT a permitted reason for overnight stay....however, as said before, unlikely they’d enforce or check eligibility
staying because you’re unable to return home is also a valid reason.

the list of exemptions isn’t exhaustive either if you have any valid reason to be in the area overnight you can stay.

Originally Posted by northeastflyer
​​​​​​UK government rules clearly don't allow foreign travel for leisure if you live in a Tier 4 area. I think everyone agrees on that. I'm not talking about valid business travel or other allowable reasons. These routes are almost all leisure.
factually incorrect there is no law against the act of flying out of England for leisure. Being out of the home without a valid excuse is the reason it’s an offence to travel to the airport for leisure as per raffles post.

the advice is clear that you shouldn’t travel but advice and law are two different things. But again the list of valid reasons why isn’t exhaustive it’s just guidance on the types of reasons why you could fly. It looked like there was still lots of movement in November so will probably carry on in January. Perhaps if this continues into Feb mass cancellations may occur.

Last edited by TGLoyalty; Dec 31, 2020 at 3:13 am
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 4:01 am
  #22  
 
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Originally Posted by TGLoyalty

It looked like there was still lots of movement in November so will probably carry on in January. Perhaps if this continues into Feb mass cancellations may occur.
The travel bans surely if they continue will lead to lots of cancellations?
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 6:38 am
  #23  
 
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Ireland has extended its ban on flights from the UK until Jan 6. Can someone tell BA? My son is scheduled to travel from the US to DUB through London tomorrow, with the LHR connection to BA830 on Saturday morning. BA.com's flight status still shows his connecting flight as on time, as does MMB. The trip is booked with AA miles, so I'd have to deal with them for rebooking, but they can't do anything until BA cancels the flight. Any idea when/if BA will get around to this?
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 7:47 am
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Originally Posted by Stripe
Ireland has extended its ban on flights from the UK until Jan 6. Can someone tell BA? My son is scheduled to travel from the US to DUB through London tomorrow, with the LHR connection to BA830 on Saturday morning. BA.com's flight status still shows his connecting flight as on time, as does MMB. The trip is booked with AA miles, so I'd have to deal with them for rebooking, but they can't do anything until BA cancels the flight. Any idea when/if BA will get around to this?
The NOTAM has been updated which I believe is what BA are using to make these decisions. I wonder if they're running it empty/cargo outbound and just haven't cancelled it yet, there have been some very late cancellations recently but could happen any time.

Have you found an alternative routing that works? The airport may be the best place to resolve this if all else fails but make sure you're there in time for whichever routing you think might work instead
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 7:48 am
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Raffles
No-one is banned from travelling. You are simply banned from leaving home.

(Taken to extremes .... the law states clearly that none of the stipulations apply to a homeless person, so a homeless person can, totally legally, rock up at T5 and fly somewhere.)

If you are prepared to pay the Ł200 fine for being outside your home for a reason not on the list, BA will be happy to fly you. I suspect if you've paid Ł5k-Ł10k for a Caribbean, Maldives or Middle East holiday then Ł200 will not deter you.
These kind of comments do give people the “stuff it I’ll risk it for a possible fine” mentality which is not really on, the virus is currently rampaging and we need to bunker down and cancel those leisure plans, and business trips if not absolutely critical
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 8:01 am
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by mikeyfly
These kind of comments do give people the “stuff it I’ll risk it for a possible fine” mentality which is not really on, the virus is currently rampaging and we need to bunker down and cancel those leisure plans, and business trips if not absolutely critical
Do you think the people travelling who have had recent PCR testing are the issue in the grand scheme of things without getting into a debate on the data being used for cases, I would argue that the small % of travellers are likely not the root cause of infections, if they were then ALL travel would be stopped. Whilst I agree with your point, it isn't something that I would be looking to worry about.

Last edited by annihilation; Dec 31, 2020 at 8:13 am
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 8:05 am
  #27  
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Originally Posted by annihilation
Do you think the people travelling who have had recent PCR testing are the issue in the grand scheme of things with getting into a debate on the data being used I would argue that the small % of travellers are likely not the root cause of infections, if theyw ere then ALL travel would be stopped.
I don’t have an opinion or knowledge on the %s of people causing an infection by travelling, my opinion is people picking and choosing which rules to break as they deem low risk or ridiculous, and why they are above the rules
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 8:07 am
  #28  
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Originally Posted by annihilation
Do you think the people travelling who have had recent PCR testing are the issue in the grand scheme of things with getting into a debate on the data being used I would argue that the small % of travellers are likely not the root cause of infections, if theyw ere then ALL travel would be stopped.
To be fair I think the point mikeyfly was taking issue with was that you should wilfully breach the law on the basis you are rich enough to pay the Ł200 fine if stopped, i.e. leaving home in a tier 4 area as you are heading off on holiday which is not a reasonable excuse.

You would agree that's a really unfortunate bit of advice wouldn't you? I certainly think advocating that kind of entitled attitude will grate with many who are sticking to the law.

EDIT: I think just to get back on topic I will say I have already received some cancellations last night for domestic flights in January. I suspect BA will reduced services where they see reductions in demand based on cancellations for passengers as a result of the changes today.

Last edited by KARFA; Dec 31, 2020 at 8:13 am
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 8:26 am
  #29  
 
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Yes I understand, I think the point here is that there is no law preventing international travel as such. It is a set of controls that "should" stop travel. However, I'll stop pulling on the wrong thread

Male is still going on the 8th so far.
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Old Dec 31, 2020, 8:26 am
  #30  
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The other side of this equation are the restrictions imposed by one's intended destination. Even if the UK were to eliminate all of its restrictions, much of the world is either off-limits, requires testing or quarantine. Local restrictions may also mean that local business & leisure travel is not manageable or desireable.

On the other hand, there are destinations which offer luxury accommodation to those quite happy to endure a room with a view and room service.
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