Impact of vaccine announcement on BA

Old Nov 9, 20, 7:30 am
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Impact of vaccine announcement on BA

I see the IAG share price is currently trading +30% on the day. The vaccine data is suggested to show 90% effectiveness (probably 87 cases in the placebo group and 7 in the vaccine group) and final safety data expected by 3rd week in November.

Hoping for something approaching a quick return to more flights for BA and Heathrow, but realistically going to be long into 2021 or beyond I suppose.

Anyway, I am not claiming to have much insightful to say except that I really hope that in the end if we see the outcome the markets are clearly expecting, we will all remember the scientists, doctors, pharma companies and healthcare workers who got us out of this horrible mess.

In the meantime, stay safe and well!
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:31 am
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I was wondering where the spike in share price came from. The pessimist in me wonders if it's a signal to crystalise but I'll probably hold on (not that I have many anyway)
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:35 am
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A lot of it depends on government reactions around the world, the biggest cause of low flight levels at the moment is coming from lockdowns and shut borders. It's a bit too early to see an impact.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:43 am
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Confidence is a major factor. If people believe that vaccines are likely to be successful they will book BA flights for next Summer.

My next BA flight is to Barbados in late May and I am much more confident today that I will be taking it.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:44 am
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Great if you work in a care home, live in a care home, 65+, are a high risk under 65 I'd say. For everyone else still a long way back of the queue
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:49 am
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Originally Posted by Sprodo View Post
Great if you work in a care home, live in a care home, 65+, are a high risk under 65 I'd say. For everyone else still a long way back of the queue
Agree that any vaccine will likely be given to elderly / vulnerable (and maybe healthcare workers) first. But ultimately the reason we’re all cocooning, isolating etc is to protect these groups. If suddenly they’re regarded as “safe” I can see governments having a very different response
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:51 am
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Originally Posted by Sprodo View Post
Great if you work in a care home, live in a care home, 65+, are a high risk under 65 I'd say. For everyone else still a long way back of the queue
Yup. It’s great news (and a second vaccine has announced in the last hour) but this is still going to be a long road. I’m hoping that Summer 21 starts to look more normal but real normal won’t be until 2022. Assuming the mink flu doesn’t spread!

For BA the Govt steps on airport testing, reduced quarantine and indeed removal of the travel ban are more important short term measures.

Last edited by Swanhunter; Nov 9, 20 at 8:07 am
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Old Nov 9, 20, 7:58 am
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Originally Posted by Swanhunter View Post

For BA the Govt steps on airport testing, rescued quarantine and indeed removal of the travel ban are more important short term measures.
110% agree. Airport testing, ditching the "travel corridors" and having clarity for the post-Brexit world are the keys for the UK air transport industry right now. If they don't nail them there won't be much left to cheer the arrival of the vaccine.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:01 am
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As a point of information, HMG has already paid an undisclosed amount for 30 million doses of the Pfizer mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b, two doses needed per person, so 15 million people. 10 million doses were due for delivery in 2020, the rest in Q1 2021. Various caveats apply, not least safety licensing.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:29 am
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave View Post
As a point of information, HMG has already paid an undisclosed amount for 30 million doses of the Pfizer mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b, two doses needed per person, so 15 million people. 10 million doses were due for delivery in 2020, the rest in Q1 2021. Various caveats apply, not least safety licensing.
One caveat appears to be that Pfizer thinks it can manufacture 50 million doses this year, presumably equating to 25 million "shipsets", and I haven't seen any information about how these will be divided between the numerous countries that have ordered it, some in greater numbers than the UK.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:31 am
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Nice that IAG is up. On the other hand, Amazon, Zoom and Netflix down.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:37 am
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Originally Posted by Sprodo View Post
Great if you work in a care home, live in a care home, 65+, are a high risk under 65 I'd say. For everyone else still a long way back of the queue
Happy to be over 70 in this scenario! BUT ... all will depend on how destination Nations handle the concept of ‘This passenger is immune’, and what documentation will be needed.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:42 am
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Originally Posted by Globaliser View Post
One caveat appears to be that Pfizer thinks it can manufacture 50 million doses this year, presumably equating to 25 million "shipsets",
A lot has already been manufactured, for this and a number of other vaccines.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:51 am
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave View Post
As a point of information, HMG has already paid an undisclosed amount for 30 million doses of the Pfizer mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b, two doses needed per person, so 15 million people. 10 million doses were due for delivery in 2020, the rest in Q1 2021. Various caveats apply, not least safety licensing.
Yes very good points CWS- if we get 10 million (5 million people vaccinated) doses in the UK by the end of 2020 that would go some way to protecting front line workers and the most vulnerable.

An awfully long way to go but this appears to be some unadulterated good news.

Thank God, we needed it.
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Old Nov 9, 20, 8:51 am
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Originally Posted by andymcdonnell View Post
Agree that any vaccine will likely be given to elderly / vulnerable (and maybe healthcare workers) first. But ultimately the reason we’re all cocooning, isolating etc is to protect these groups. If suddenly they’re regarded as “safe” I can see governments having a very different response
At the Trust I'm working on there is already a plan in place for COVID-19 vaccination. They also “rushed” flu vaccinations this year to allow time for COVID vaccine preparations.

Last edited by Cookoovaya; Nov 10, 20 at 4:34 am
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