Odds of a cancellation?

Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:06 am
  #1  
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Odds of a cancellation?

Hello

I realise that this is a speculative question, but I thought it helpful to sound out the gurus here.

For summer holiday this year we booked (Upper deck J) from LHR to JFK on 1 August on BA117.

Then coming back (after an internal flight) in F on BA208 from Miami to LHR.

Both flights are on a 747.

Ideally, I would like a cancellation, as the holiday we planned it will not be.

How likely do you think that one of the flights will be cancelled?

in the event of cancellation, then we get into a battle with the insurance companies about recouping hotel costs...joy.

Thanks
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:11 am
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There's a moderate chance. I suspect that you will know whether or not it is cancelled in early July as they might start cancelling flights in August.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:21 am
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Crikey the BA forum most definitely needs a Crystal Ball master thread !
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:34 am
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If the flight is cancelled, the airline will offer an alternative flight - as such I don't see how the insurance company would agree to pay for hotels et alia if you choose not to travel
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:45 am
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It's worth checking with each of the hotels' websites if they have an amended cancellation policy - certainly most of the major chains are much more flexible than usual.

Regarding your flights, there is no way of knowing. The whole situation is so fluid, with different countries moving on at different speeds, and with BA themselves being very difficult to predict. I guess (and it's a total guess) that there will definitely be JFK cancellations as there are many more options which can be offered to customers - however whether that's going to be your flight is impossible to predict!
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:48 am
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I realise that you did not ask this specific question, but would you even be admitted to the US (ie are you a US citizen)? I do not expect the Schengen proclamation to be lifted by then, so you may wish to look into your travel insurance setup if flights are not cancelled.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:51 am
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I also think you may be a touch unlucky, especially as it's lhr jfk with BA. They will likely just rebook you on another flight.

If you booked this before covid and the UK and or US government don't allow you to travel, your travel insurance may cover you. Many insurances do include cover pre covid.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 6:51 am
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August cancellations probably won't start appearing until early July (or so).

My 747 JFK flights for mid-July were changed to 777 (I think in late May). But due to other segments in July the non-JFK segments were cancelled the first week of June.

H
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 7:02 am
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It's highly unlikely that these flights will be cancelled, they have been running throughout these unusual times. As others note, there are plenty of alternative re-routings.

So the key question here is whether you will be allowed to fly to the US? If you don't have a US passport, a spousal connection or certain types of visa travel may not be allowed.

I'd be inclined to discuss your options with BA. They have proven to be very flexible.

With regards to hotels, the advice above is sound. I'd only discuss options with my insurer as a last resort - this isn't a scenario ordinarily covered.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 7:33 am
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Thanks for the advice.

None of our family have any US connection, so we would be entering the US under a visa.

Also, everything was booked last year.

The flights are cancellable (as they are Avios redemptions), though I don't want to cancel, as I will lose the additional amount paid to get seats on the Upper Deck, plus the cancellation fee. I know I can leave cancelling until 24 hours before departures, and if needs be, I will cancel as we have decide that we don't want to go.

I booked the NYC hotel via hotels.com (paid upfront), and they are not providing any clarity on whether the booking can be shifted. It was booked on a non-cancellable basis.

Separately, I booked a villa in Florida and the management company is refusing to allow a cancellation or change of date. Payment of the balance is due at the end of the month. If we pay the balance, and are denied exit from the UK / entry into the US., then we could claim under the insurance for the total cost of the villa. If we don't pay for the villa, then we lose all rights to claim under the insurance. Our risk is that if we do pay the balance, and an airbridge is put in place, then we will lose all the money for the villa.

I accept that it is our decision not to go to the US this year, but I struggle to see the benefit in going to NYC and Disney World given all of the restrictions. I also get that we are choosing not to go and hence we will pay the cost of not going....it's just I'd like to minimise loses where I can so that we can use what money is saved for the same holiday (hopefully) next year.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 7:40 am
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Unfortunately you will have the obligation to mitigate loss, so doubt insurance would pay for the flight. As you used avios then they will know BA will allow you to cancel.

But don't see why not for the villa and hotel and also the BA cancellation fee if you are not allowed entry into the US or exit fromUK.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 7:41 am
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You won't be denied exit from the UK, but if you are planning to travel to the US under an ESTA, then you should read the relevant proclamation:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/president...l-coronavirus/

Your ESTA will be cancelled when your carrier transmits the API to CBP prior to the flight and you'll be denied boarding at LHR. I would not expect this proclamation to be lifted by early August, but you never know. You should also consider that the FCO advisory not to travel to certain countries will likely still be in place. This would likely invalidate any travel insurance you have in place.

I would speak to the insurance now, because even though you won't know whether the flights are cancelled until a few weeks before, you should assume that you'll be rebooked on another service.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 8:46 am
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Originally Posted by crazyarmadillo
Unfortunately you will have the obligation to mitigate loss, so doubt insurance would pay for the flight. As you used avios then they will know BA will allow you to cancel.

But don't see why not for the villa and hotel and also the BA cancellation fee if you are not allowed entry into the US or exit fromUK.
Thanks - I am not expecting the insurance to cover the flights. I'll cancel those if needs be, but would rather BA cancel them, so that I can get a similar flight in the future. I guess my real quandary is whether I should pay for the villa or cut my losses now. It's a real shame.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 9:07 am
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I would get a case set up with the insurance on the basis that you most likely won't be admitted to the US. Then you can action it when it gets closer to the pay-up date. As you bought these pre-Corona, you should be in a better position.
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Old Jun 10, 2020, 9:41 am
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Originally Posted by LondonElite
I would get a case set up with the insurance on the basis that you most likely won't be admitted to the US. Then you can action it when it gets closer to the pay-up date. As you bought these pre-Corona, you should be in a better position.
Given how busy the travel insurance admin companies are at the moment, I think you should wait until nearer the time when you have some certainty about what is happening rather than what may or may not happen.

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