opus99

configured similarly the -10 will give you at least another 20 seats. Given it’s almost 20 feet longer, even with the lost seat per row it’s still considerably bigger

JCO1406

I think they will most likely use the 787-9s. Since the current LHR ones will be refurbished into CW, I think BA will order a new batch of -9s for Gatwick without first class and a slightly smaller Business. The -9s (at LHR) will be refurbished into 8 First, 38 Business, 39 Premium Eco and 130 Eco. If they removed First and reduced Business down to 32 seats (removing 2 rows), then the amount of Seats they choose for Premium Economy is up to them, leaving the rest to Eco. The number of Eco seats would be reduced by about 70-80 which is a big reduction from the current number (252 seats).

Alternatively, they could order the A350-900 and make it 10 abreast seating as it is capable of doing that. Although there are some mixed opinions about the A350s being 10 abreast.

I think BA has got it's self into a bit of a pickle, but i'm sure that they are working on a solution for that. They said that they want to keep the 777s till they're 30 years old, so they've got about 6-7 years to sort out a replacement for the Gatwick fleet.

JerseyPilot

Isn’t that the same as saying broadly similar pax capacity and does that invalidate my point about new kit being utilised at LGW? Or do you really want me to go back and edit my original post to include the phrase “in current configuration”? Sorry to sound flippant but that reads like a reply that basically offers nothing other than pedantry ;-)

opus99

well it depends on your definition of broadly similar. It could be 20 seat difference, it could be 30, im not saying it to be pedantic im truing to say that 20-30 seats is actually quite a bit different. Same market yes but it changes economics and what will ultimately feed into the decision behind the kind of aircraft that is chosen.

TedToToe

With the exception of YMMR, S, T and U, all the other 77Es were delivered to BA over a four year period. So, replacing the LGW fleet is interesting, because the 'hand me down' approach of existing 77Es won't last long. To me, that means the restrictions with the 351 or 789, described up thread, will need to be solved at some point. I'm ruling out the 77W, by the way, based on the Hi-J CS configuration.

Confus

If Boeing were still making 77Ws I wouldn’t have been surprised to see a new high-density order for LGW - would have been a great way to grow and the price would have been reasonable. But as it stands I agree and don’t see the LHR 77Ws being sacrificed in this way.

TedToToe

Earlier in the thread, it was mentioned that Rolls Royce was preventing some A350 orders from materialising, and with IAG being mentioned. In more positive news, last week AF/KL ordered 50 aircraft comprising both A359 and A35K, so maybe RR are ready to do deals. It is reported that AF/KL are factoring in the closure of Russian airspace in the mid-term and that the A350 was selected as it was "better" [Ben Smith's word] than the 787 for 12-14 hour sectors! I know that BA are not necessarily that strong in Asia, but would IAG also conclude that the A350 is the better aircraft for HND, PKX etc.
edited: to add, maybe BA will order a further batch of A35Ks with a 4 class cabin and galleys better suited to longer routes.

JCO1406

They'll probably firm up the 18 options for the -1000s with the 3 class configuration and use those as a replacement for the 3 class 777-200s (YMMG-U). They could order the -900s for the Gatwick replacements. I think that they'll use the 787-10s to replace the 4 class 777-200s and we'll see an order for more made next year.

BA have the 777x on order, so I think they'll be using that for the longer routes, and any routes that the 747s used to operate on. I think we'll see an order for more 777x be made in a few years time once BA has had a few delivered. I wonder how long they will want to keep the 77Ws for, whether they have an early retirement and get replaced by the 777x or use it's full lifespan. The A380s looks to be kept for it's whole lifespan as BA are refurbishing them to CS and fitting a new First Class in.

opus99

AF-KLM have an in house MRO arm in which airbus agreed to give them rights to service that aircraft in house for other airlines as well and RR had to give rights to allow them to do their own in-house MRO for those engines, so this would’ve been part of the deal. So there was an incentive there plus this was a 90 aircraft deal of course RR had to come in competitive, that’s scale.

also the 787 and 777X combination didn’t have the range OR the size OR the availability all at once, either had one or either but not all three (777x not yet certified so no definite certainty there) so it was an easy deal for airbus to scoop up if you ask me, the pricing had to make sense still.

the problem with BA is that they don’t order at scale, they order as and when needed and not anytime before that or after that. Whilst also wanting dirt cheap prices. And GE will want them on the 87. And if GE gets them on the 87 for this order you can be sure they’ll exercise the remaining options and probably use them to replace the remaining 18 GE powered 777s

opus99

https://aviationweek.com/air-transpo...et-six-787-10s

This articles suggests that some of the 350 options have expired:

The Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database shows British Airways has 18 777-9s on order with options for 24 aircraft, plus orders for five 787-10s. BA also has three Airbus A350-1000s on order with options for 10 aircraft.

opus99

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...widebody-order

BA in talks with Boeing and Airbus for 20+ widebody order to replace older 777-200ERs

decision is not imminent.

JCO1406

Sounds interesting. I think BA should buy the 777-200ER replacements in big order instead of small orders, they might be able to get it at a discounted price. Since there are 43 777-200ERS, they would need to order 43 aircrafts. Lets say that they order 50, allowing them to expand. If BA are in talks with Airbus, it looks like the issue with Rolls Royce could be resolved and more A350s could be on the way! I think it will most likely be the A350-1000s and 787-10s, perhaps some more 777-9s? Perhaps we might finally get an answer for what their plans are for replacing the Gatwick fleet.

I wonder if they'll announce the order by the end of this year, or maybe during the Dubai Airshow as airshows are a good time to announce orders.

opus99

I predict the 787-10 will be the choice

bmibaby737

i think you may be right. Be interesting to see if they end up with 2 configs for the 787-10.

can the 787-10 do some of the longer missions like to EZE?

opus99

the current version can do it. But with no cargo. The IGW can do it with cargo.
BA will be buying the IGW version as Boeing will only be making the IGW version from Q3 2024