Honest opinion : BA will have to be nationalised
May 1, 2020, 12:00 am
#76
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: The Blackwater Valley (Berkshire/Hampshire/Surrey border area)
Programs: BAEC Silver, Hilton Gold, Bonvoy Gold, IHG Diamond, etc etc
Posts: 199
IB and BA have structures in place to ensure they are (ahem) 50.1% owned by appropriate persons (/ahem)
ETA: Forgot Aer Lingus! But I'm not including the likes of Vueling and Level.
Last edited by Cyberhacker; May 1, 2020 at 4:42 am
May 1, 2020, 12:18 am
#77
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: UK
Programs: BA GGL, BA Amex Prem, Amex Plat, Hilton Diamond, Sir Crazy8534 de l'ordres des aides de Pucci
Posts: 4,444
I am 30. In employment still. (Touch wood).
I haven’t been able to spend money in the past 6 weeks, other than going to grocery shops , and I have more money on my bank account than ever before.
If I am allowed to travel, I would be off asap, and take advantage of cheap hotels and flights.
I am sure there are many more people like me with similar situation/view.
I haven’t been able to spend money in the past 6 weeks, other than going to grocery shops , and I have more money on my bank account than ever before.
If I am allowed to travel, I would be off asap, and take advantage of cheap hotels and flights.
I am sure there are many more people like me with similar situation/view.
As for me, I feel like I am currently funding Jeff Bezos' divorce settlement...
Sign of things to come on the Loyalty Lobby blog today. The Fairmont on the Palm in Dubai will let you stay for free until October as long as you spend Ł100 per day in the bars and restaurants. Start wiggling deals like these at the British public (this one is only for locals) and the planes will be full.
Personally, I have transformed in the space of a month from a regular commuter/business traveller who was completely bored of flying and airlines and lounges to just not being able to wait to get back in the air!
May 1, 2020, 12:43 am
#78
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Newcastle UK
Posts: 1,114
Just FYI, as I keep seeing occasional posts regarding lack of travel insurance, there are a small number of UK insurers that are covering Covid-19 emergency medical treatment, not cancellation etc etc. Personally it's only the medical treatment that concerns me for any travel, so when the time is right I'll be happy with that. I know that this post is not specifically about BA, but it keeps getting mentioned and the ability to obtain insurance is key to most travellers and therfore airlines.
May 1, 2020, 12:43 am
#79
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Kazakhstan
Programs: BA Gold, AirAstana Silver (much use as chocolate teapot)
Posts: 867
Qatar may have used oil to build up their wealth a number of years ago however these days they rely a lot more heavily on natural gas as their oil reserves are quite low whereas their gas reserves are some of the largest in the world. I understand that gas prices have remained relatively stable over the past few years. Furthermore they have spent a lot of effort diversifying their income recently, I will be interested to see what they do.
Qatar is unrecognizable from when I worked there on the North Field Development from 90-93.
Anyhow back on topic, I'm really not sure how any of the airlines can survive, moving forward. Things are not going to return quickly, people are not going to start travelling unless we have a global alignment on entry requirements. If social distancing is maintained in aircraft loads are going to be way down so prices must rise. Maybe BA will have to be nationalized of sorts.
Last edited by DorsetKnob; May 1, 2020 at 12:49 am
May 1, 2020, 12:46 am
#80
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 10,709
Not necessarily as we know them though. The buffets will surely have to go, with all food either served by staff or individually wrapped. And the communal bottles of booze will presumably have to be replaced with miniatures or a manned bar.
By no means insurmountable problems but a very different experience nonetheless.
Yes, but in 2008/9 cheap, reliable video conferencing and mass home-working weren’t an option for most businesses. They are now and some very large companies (eg Barclays) have already said it’s likely that the way they work has changed for good.
By no means insurmountable problems but a very different experience nonetheless.
Yes, but in 2008/9 cheap, reliable video conferencing and mass home-working weren’t an option for most businesses. They are now and some very large companies (eg Barclays) have already said it’s likely that the way they work has changed for good.
Barclays and many companies are now looking to enhance working from home and their branches. A return to working across different site. An investment banker doesnt need to be in Canary Wharf to do his / her work. I live across two houses and have a home in central London. From both outside houses the commute is Ł5k a year. Money is going to be saved by commuters working from home and in their local towns.
With interest payments on savings accounts been nil points. I suspect some will be using their savings up. Not everyone has debt and investments are sorted. So travel, experiences and travel will remain in the medium term.
May 1, 2020, 12:55 am
#82
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 8,762
If you have a family then maybe that grocery bill has gone up vs term time, but I am firmly in let_BAegones_be’s boat where even though I am spending a bit more at Tesco, I am not spending Ł5 at Pret for lunch every day, or indeed anything else.
Before lockdown if I went out to eat at a decent restaurant that would typically be 50 quid gone. That 50 quid funds an awful lot at Tesco!
May 1, 2020, 1:12 am
#83
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Around somewhere
Programs: Gold, Some red card and some hotel cards.
Posts: 708
there are some of us that have had to continue to travel and where flights operate, the loads factors are decent and yields/fares very high. BA has handed the little high yield volume there is to every other airline still flying.
Therefore to assume there is NO demand for the rest of 2020 seems very blinkered. Sooner rather than later people are going to have to learn to live with Covid. For many that will curtail life. For many it will do so by less.
now that doesn’t mean BA won’t end up nationalised, but just not in the way you think. It will be the recovery that I suspect will kill it.
So far, it seems to have gone all out with its approach of preventing refunds in any way it can to lose customers’ trust, which means that when things restart (not now)its going to have a huge working capital problem. Having tried to cling onto everyone’s cash, I can’t see people booking far ahead. Even if they do I can’t see card merchants giving that to BA until the flight occurs because of BA’s poor behaviour to date. That’s a Ł4bn+ hole in BA’s cash- and it will be that which sinks it.
Therefore to assume there is NO demand for the rest of 2020 seems very blinkered. Sooner rather than later people are going to have to learn to live with Covid. For many that will curtail life. For many it will do so by less.
now that doesn’t mean BA won’t end up nationalised, but just not in the way you think. It will be the recovery that I suspect will kill it.
So far, it seems to have gone all out with its approach of preventing refunds in any way it can to lose customers’ trust, which means that when things restart (not now)its going to have a huge working capital problem. Having tried to cling onto everyone’s cash, I can’t see people booking far ahead. Even if they do I can’t see card merchants giving that to BA until the flight occurs because of BA’s poor behaviour to date. That’s a Ł4bn+ hole in BA’s cash- and it will be that which sinks it.
People are just too pessimistic.
May 1, 2020, 1:12 am
#84
Join Date: Jun 2017
Programs: BA Gold Lifetime
Posts: 9
The mention of travel and the context of commuters and also the emphasis on R, really caught my attention at today's briefing. One of the difficulties for HMG whilst they wait for better tests/science/data and lower cases, yet partially unlock, is how to keep some handle on R whilst facing down the fact ideal social distancing can't be maintained in Trains / Buses / Tubes / Planes etc ... nor several other places even at 33% capacities. They know R will rise, but can they detect and understand rises quickly enough to flag 'above tolerance' rises?
The other phrase that struck me was the PM mentioning other innovative solutions.
Some of these would be valuable parts of a 'good enough' Phase 2; it will be interesting if the Government is prepared to go all out and sell them.
I believe they are still waiting for clearer options and 5th May is very tight.
The other phrase that struck me was the PM mentioning other innovative solutions.
Some of these would be valuable parts of a 'good enough' Phase 2; it will be interesting if the Government is prepared to go all out and sell them.
I believe they are still waiting for clearer options and 5th May is very tight.
For air travel to commence on a commercially viable basis, the confidence of the passenger and business need to be in place. And the not inconsiderable legal and medical safety issues. For those who are interested, google the 1976 incident in Alaska when 70% of passengers on a 737 flight were infected with influenza carried by a single passenger. And flu aerosol transmission much lower than COVID. What about cabin crew safety? What about legal liabilities if transmission event occurs on board?
Reasons to be optimistic? The likelihood of a vaccine is high - there are 100 in development. There are two UK vaccines which look pretty good. Even if they serve to mitigate disease severity to a mild disease, confidence will flood back. But need to manufacture at scale......billions of doses. Realistically that may happen by mid late 2020. ...can current corporate structures survive until then?
May 1, 2020, 1:18 am
#85
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: UK
Programs: IC Hotels Spire, BA Gold
Posts: 8,667
In all seriousness, on what? I genuinely don’t know what you could be spending money on aside from groceries.
If you have a family then maybe that grocery bill has gone up vs term time, but I am firmly in let_BAegones_be’s boat where even though I am spending a bit more at Tesco, I am not spending Ł5 at Pret for lunch every day, or indeed anything else.
Before lockdown if I went out to eat at a decent restaurant that would typically be 50 quid gone. That 50 quid funds an awful lot at Tesco!
If you have a family then maybe that grocery bill has gone up vs term time, but I am firmly in let_BAegones_be’s boat where even though I am spending a bit more at Tesco, I am not spending Ł5 at Pret for lunch every day, or indeed anything else.
Before lockdown if I went out to eat at a decent restaurant that would typically be 50 quid gone. That 50 quid funds an awful lot at Tesco!
May 1, 2020, 1:23 am
#86
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 10,709
I am a Waitrose and Ocado shopper.
I do keep looking at the clothes then thinking I am not going out anywhere so no need.
I do keep buying my jumpers because I only buy from John Smedley and feel I need to support them.
Although I have also increased in books and more expenses on technology in my home.
I do keep looking at the clothes then thinking I am not going out anywhere so no need.
I do keep buying my jumpers because I only buy from John Smedley and feel I need to support them.
Although I have also increased in books and more expenses on technology in my home.
May 1, 2020, 1:29 am
#87
Join Date: Jun 2018
Programs: BAEC Silver
Posts: 160
One has to wonder whether employers in the not too distant future will revert to the pre-pandemic model and expense of having large groups of people working in offices and traveling to different business locales or whether they will encourage people to work from home, and maintain an ever smaller HQ presence.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...l-leave-behind
[q]Yet these productivity bonuses look likely to be heavily outweighed by drawbacks. Studies suggest the benefits of working from home only materialise if employees can frequently check in at an office in order to solve problems. Planning new projects is especially difficult. Anyone who has tried to bounce ideas around on Zoom or Skype knows that spontaneity is hard. People are often using bad equipment with poor connections. Nick Bloom of Stanford University, one of the few economists to have studied working from home closely, reckons that there will be a sharp decline in patent applications in 2021.[/q]
I think that the moment there are one or more vaccines on the market there will be a relatively quick rebound for the economic crisis we are in now. And seeing the multiple efforts around the world creating a vaccine I think there will be one next year the latest.
May 1, 2020, 2:21 am
#88
Ambassador: Emirates Airlines
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 18,603
May 1, 2020, 3:10 am
#89
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Henley-On-Thames
Programs: BAEC Silver (but only temporarily) AVIS Presidents Club, Starbucks Gold
Posts: 486
I really think you need to adjust your ambitions if 'desperation for a holiday' is your priority right now. The irony is Britain's weather has been amazing for weeks. Why on earth do you *need* to go abroad? And what are you expecting to find when you get there? Life as normal? No. It's the same in Spain than it is here: queues, people wary of each other, masks, social distancing, no gatherings etc.
Have you thought through the logistics of this 'desperation' properly? But, of course, as you point out, you're 34 and this isn't your priority.
Have you thought through the logistics of this 'desperation' properly? But, of course, as you point out, you're 34 and this isn't your priority.
ML