andymcdonnell

€2b is just the figure for unemployment supports & not even for a whole year. Add in lost income tax for hundreds of thousands of extra people, a massive drop in VAT both from domestic individuals and the certain plummeting of tourists, a certain fall off in corporation tax take as businesses either close or shrink. On top of this, the demand for supplemental supports such as housing & other forms or welfare will also increase. €2b is just the tip of the iceberg. I heard a figure of €35b mentioned last week & by no means is Ireland amongst the worst affected countries. I’d suspect the economic impact for Spain & Italy will be substantially bigger

South London Bon Viveur

Quite a few European countries, including ones that were badly affected, are looking at relaxing restrictions. I cannot imagine that a fleet grounding until 2021 a la Norwegian above is aligned to likely country travel and immigration restrictions. I think the borders, certainly in Europe, will be open much much sooner than that, albeit possibly with additional requirements such as masks, health certificates, temperature checks.

subject2load

All speculative opinion of course (though I do not criticise you for that).

If air travel does indeed come with such restrictions / procedures (quite apart from any ongoing personal risk to one’s health for the sake of a holiday), then you have to wonder just how many people - relative to ‘normal’ numbers - will actually feel confortable in booking ; which in turn raises the question of how many flights are likely to be operated by cash-strapped airlines.

GumshoeW12

True. But very few are talking about any meaningful return to mass tourism any time soon, least of all from the UK.

stevie

See the news breaking out of Germany today. Their data is showing infection rates growing back significantly a few days on easing restrictions. Ireland was due to see some easing next week, latest now is nothing will be eased.
If the German example is proven there will be no air travel in 2020 without 2 week quarantine on landing

fransknorge

Mmhh due to the delay the infection rates does not match with easing restrictions. The easing started yesterday and you need to wait two weeks to see the effect.

T8191

With respect, folks, we stray from the South Africa topic to more global issues. No surprise, of course, but ... 🤔

Bantry

Will Cape Town route get A350s ?

With Virgin out, assume JNB demands will be enormous.....

simon stingray

And South African Airways on the verge of completely collapsing

GumshoeW12

South Africa may be the best example of why VS failing would be very bad news for UK travellers.

Assuming SAA is also out of the picture, a total BA monopoly is in no-one’s interest apart from IAG’s.

T8191

There’s still the QR option from LGW, if you have time to spare! 😎

escape2sun

When I last went to CPT, 2nd March, everyone had their temperature taken, and asked if they had been to any high risk countries, which the UK wasn't one at the time. If you had a temperature, you were taken aside and seen by someone else, so they were trying to keep CV19 out, but to no avail. All the initial cases were either from foreign tourists arriving in SA or locals returning from Italy, Germany, US or UK. There were no reported instances from China.

As for the virus getting into the townships, I think that will already have happened, as the local supermarkets, Checkers, Shoprite, Pick'nPay and Spar have all had to close stores and do a deep clean. Many of the workers are from the townships, but not necessarily front line staff. A couple of stores in Somerset West, Table View, Constancia all better off areas have had to close for the deep clean before re-opening

Friends who work in either Health & Beaty or hospitality say that the guidance they are getting is that they will only be able to open once level 1 lock down is in place. They expect level 1 will be around September/October, if they can survive that long. If their business do re-open they will be heavily dependant on overseas tourists for income, so they are praying that the government won't implement a 2-week quarantine on anyone entering SA

T8191

Oh, please, please let that happen, apart from the 2-week quarantine which makes travelling largely pointless! Our trip is 2-19 Dec.

However, you’re right [my bold] ... which hotels/restaurants will have survived? All the hotels we use are small and privately owned, so no Corporate structure to fall back on.

escape2sun

You could always go for longer

T8191

If everything was operating, it’s a reasonable idea. After all, the budget will be enhanced by all the 2020 cancellations! We’ve already decided that if we can fly in 2021 it will be First where available! We just NEED to repeat our annual trip that usually looks like ... BA to The Western Cape - 3 Towns in 2 Weeks