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Avios - will it still be Peak Summer Prices?

Avios - will it still be Peak Summer Prices?

Old Apr 24, 20, 12:03 pm
  #1  
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Avios - will it still be Peak Summer Prices?

1. It looks like July/August possibly things may start to open up - right now thatís peak travel time for airlines. But surely they wouldnít actually be that busy then?

And if they arenít then Avios prices would probably be more expensive than a paid fare right?

How would you plan a trip based on that...?

2. Where would seem like the best, safest place to travel when that happens?
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:09 pm
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🤷🏻‍♂️

FWIW, I think summer 2020 is essentially cancelled in terms of normal holiday flights.
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:10 pm
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I realise I may be wrong - but as can be seen BA have Avios available on pretty much every route.

But itís peak pricing. When the planes wonít be full. So you would expect that the cash prices will be less than the Avios cost.
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:17 pm
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Iím very much with krispy84 on this.

You cannot hope to get anything but totally speculative answers. And, by way of example, I am very keen to travel to Australia & New Zealand in January 2021. Now ..... NZ can very well be considered as one of the Ďsafestí countries to visit, specifically based on their extremely low pro-rata number of recorded Covid-related infections and fatalities. Whether or not the NZ Government is willing to allow entry to non-residents by next January is a whole different matter ......
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:20 pm
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Avios availability on almost every route may be because of lack of bookings across the board. Itís also possible BA have factored in expected reduced paid demand and are choosing to burn down their avios liability.

I donít know how advanced BAís thinking is currently re. Jul / Aug flights.

EDIT: or how many Jul / Aug flights there will be!
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:25 pm
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Originally Posted by Spinstorm View Post
I realise I may be wrong - but as can be seen BA have Avios available on pretty much every route.

But itís peak pricing. When the planes wonít be full. So you would expect that the cash prices will be less than the Avios cost.
I think it depends. There will be lower demand but equally there may be lower supply with fewer flights.

As always, avios prices may be better value than the cash fare and sometimes may not be. I don't think there is ever any hard a fast rule though and in all cases it is always worth checking both options before deciding which is best for you to book.
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:37 pm
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If you see reward availability for a time you would be happy to travel I canít see a good reason not to book. Reward flights are potentially less risky than other bookings.

Yes, your flight may be cancelled or travel not possible - in which case you will be refunded (albeit this may take a while).

If you decide you donít fancy it, you can cancel up to 24 hrs beforehand and lose only your standard fee.

The main risk is that BA/IAG go bust and you join the end of a long queue of creditors- but in that case your Avios are worth nothing anyway (so no additional loss) and you are lucky in having put relatively less of your money on the line for the flights compared to those buying non-reward travel.

Also in terms of peak pricing- BA have stated previously that they are not going to repeat the mistake of over-selling at low prices to stimulate demand in a crisis and then not having seats to sell when demand bounces back (and it COULD, not saying it will, come back very quickly)- so read into that what you like.
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Old Apr 24, 20, 12:49 pm
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In response, and meant kindly ... as we don’t expect to be flying abroad for the rest of 2020.

1. I admire your optimism, which I suggest might be misplaced.

2. Where? Is this Forum possessed of a Medical Crystal Ball, which also gives insight into various destination Nations’ perspectives?


Here’s a huge ball of string ... how long do think it is? 😁
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Old Apr 24, 20, 1:01 pm
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Originally Posted by T8191 View Post
In response, and meant kindly ... as we donít expect to be flying abroad for the rest of 2020
It must be an age thing Uncle T 😉.

My mother has written off 2020 from a travel perspective. The realisation that she wonít get her annual Langkawi fix later this year was a tough moment.
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Old Apr 24, 20, 1:12 pm
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Originally Posted by krispy84 View Post
It must be an age thing Uncle T 😉.

My mother has written off 2020 from a travel perspective. The realisation that she won’t get her annual Langkawi fix later this year was a tough moment.
Blame it on me having experienced 75 years of reality! Oh, and reading various Governments’ websites. 😎

We have lost MLA already, and will, unless miracles still happen, lose IAD, ANU and CPT. 😢
2021? I will possibly have drunk and smoked myself to extinction by then, or simply died of boredom!!
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Old Apr 24, 20, 1:50 pm
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Originally Posted by T8191 View Post
I will possibly have drunk and smoked myself to extinction by then, or simply died of boredom!!
Donít do that! Iím trying very hard not to drink and smoke too much during lockdown - but hey - one thing that keeps me going, is hoping things will return to some sort of normality and we can start the earn and burn of our Avios balance very soon. No harm in avoiding boredom by hunting down interesting good deals later in the year, or early next year.

I know it is keeping us from going crazy thinking - so where shall we go, to either burn some Avios, or a good fun destination to earn some badly needed TPís!

(Of course this depends on what happens - but I think keeping a positive attitude that things will get better is important - even just for sanityís sake)
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Old Apr 24, 20, 2:17 pm
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Originally Posted by crazy8534 View Post
If you see reward availability for a time you would be happy to travel I canít see a good reason not to book. Reward flights are potentially less risky than other bookings.

Yes, your flight may be cancelled or travel not possible - in which case you will be refunded (albeit this may take a while).

If you decide you donít fancy it, you can cancel up to 24 hrs beforehand and lose only your standard fee.

The main risk is that BA/IAG go bust and you join the end of a long queue of creditors- but in that case your Avios are worth nothing anyway (so no additional loss) and you are lucky in having put relatively less of your money on the line for the flights compared to those buying non-reward travel.
If BA were to go bust your travel insurance is very likely to cover you for lost flights, I would have thought? In a sense booking reward travel is hedging your bets. If BA are operating you get to go where you would like. If flights are cancelled by BA the rebooking policy is very flexible, if I were to cancel I would loose a small fee of £35 and if BA were to go bust I would have alternate travel from the travel insurance.

I see absolutely no reason not to book award travel to places one would like to go?
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Old Apr 24, 20, 3:07 pm
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Just a datapoint.

My annual travel insurance has just renewed and airline failure is now excluded.

Nearly all insurers have also withdrawn covid 19 cover. I had to stay with mine as they will cover trips for Covid booked before it was declared an epidemic and I have 2 trips booked for nov and dec. no idea if I will go of course !
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Old Apr 24, 20, 6:07 pm
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I booked a number of reward flights today for a trip to Australia in Jan 2021. I figured that the gamble was that the trip wouldnít be feasible AND BA/MH/QF werenít at all flexible with rebooking.
In such a case, weíd lose about £330 between 2 of us. Itíd cost us more to wait and reward seats dry up or have to book cash and pay a lot more.
If IAG go bust, then its likely most of the travel industry will have been completely decimated but then weíd still have CC protection to leverage.

Weíre booking as if we expect the trip to be cancelled, so booking as many pay on the day hotels where the rates are reasonable and waiting for greater certainty on the rest.
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Old Apr 24, 20, 9:36 pm
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I am off to oz on miles in March / April. Same view as you.

the cancellation fee is only £35 per head.
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