Perceived Value of Avios in Current Climate (March 2020)
#16
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: London
Programs: BAEC Gold
Posts: 692
The value hasn't changed just because there is no point in booking a flight at the moment. Be patient and in 3 months time (or maybe longer) they will be still sitting there and you can use them again. Unless you fear a devaluation. Quite frankly I'm more worried about my shares that have lost real value than a few Avios which have not.
#17
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Argentina
Posts: 40,208
I compare the cost of a redemption to the cost of a flexible revenue ticket. Especially as I had to cancel some redemptions last year. Other than that I don't think too much about it to be honest.
#18
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
Like my investments and pension funds, I'm taking a long term view on this one. I'm in my early 40s so a long time to go before I think about retiring and my view of the value of my Avios hasn't really changed. I'm happy to sit on them for the time being and expect to get >1p per Avios when the time to redeem them does come.
If, however, you hold your nerve and think that BA will still exist when this event has blown over (which I think it will), then like the stock market and property prices, the value will return.
#20
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,710
This. Your shares are worth less, if you absolutely need to sell them now. If you feel you absolutely must redeem your Avios now, they are worth the value of the wine you can order with them, because that's the only redemption route where you can be confident of actually getting what you order.
If, however, you hold your nerve and think that BA will still exist when this event has blown over (which I think it will), then like the stock market and property prices, the value will return.
If, however, you hold your nerve and think that BA will still exist when this event has blown over (which I think it will), then like the stock market and property prices, the value will return.
#21
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
There is however a big difference between shares and points. Generally speaking stocks go up over time at least in the western world, airlines points almost NEVER appreciate. Most enhancements to frequent traveler programs are devaluations. Hence the earn and burn mantra. That said depending on how the airlines are doing after this happens there may indeed be some increased value for points but I never bank on points being worth more or even the same in the future. I expect my stock holdings to be worth more in 10 years I don't not expect my airline points to be worth more or even the same in 10 years.
#22
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: JER
Programs: BA Gold/OWE, several MUCCI, and assorted Pensions!
Posts: 32,145
I CBA to make a putative booking to somewhere I can’t go!! We have 4 destination No Entries already in MMB!
#23
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
This is the problem. You can't actually get to anywhere - and if you do, your insurance is probably invalid because you're travelling against FCO advice.
#24
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 629
yep but if you're booking for 6/7 months in advance unless you're thinking the worst and we are still under travel bans might as well book when going is good
#25
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Yorkshire
Programs: BAEC
Posts: 355
Once (hopefully) all the avios end up back in our HH account from the stuff we have booked but likely cancelled, we will be will be quite avios rich (for us, nowhere near what some of you guys have, I'm sure) but I'm in no rush untill we have a better idea on how this thing is going to play out. I'm pretty sure the 241 will go unused too (both of them).
#26
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: London & Sonoma CA
Programs: UA 1K, MM *G for life, BAEC Gold
Posts: 10,222
I value them at 0.75p. I collect them over time and spend them when I need flexibility or as part of a 2for1. The current situation doesn’t change that.
#27
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: JER
Programs: BA Gold/OWE, several MUCCI, and assorted Pensions!
Posts: 32,145
We, comfortable OAPs, do 5 or so trips a year to warm places. Many of our bookings are made literally a year ahead, and all those are already closed down by travel restrictions. The latest one (of 4) is CPT, in December. What’s the point in us booking other trips that are, on current form, unlikely to happen?
We are vaguely hoping things will relax, and some might become viable again. We have MLA, IAD, ANU and CPT in MMB. I have no intention of adding to the list in the vague hope that FCO advice or destination Border restrictions might ease. We will be just be grateful if we can salvage anything for our 2020 programme,
BTW, very glad you’re here, and giving your time to the BAFT community. Respect. 👏
#28
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 629
Hi, Hawk777 ...I see where your coming from, but I don’t see that solves the current situation.
We, comfortable OAPs, do 5 or so trips a year to warm places. Many of our bookings are made literally a year ahead, and all those are already closed down by travel restrictions. The latest one (of 4) is CPT, in December. What’s the point in us booking other trips that are, on current form, unlikely to happen?
We are vaguely hoping things will relax, and some might become viable again. We have MLA, IAD, ANU and CPT in MMB. I have no intention of adding to the list in the vague hope that FCO advice or destination Border restrictions might ease. We will be just be grateful if we can salvage anything for our 2020 programme,
BTW, very glad you’re here, and giving your time to the BAFT community. Respect. 👏
We, comfortable OAPs, do 5 or so trips a year to warm places. Many of our bookings are made literally a year ahead, and all those are already closed down by travel restrictions. The latest one (of 4) is CPT, in December. What’s the point in us booking other trips that are, on current form, unlikely to happen?
We are vaguely hoping things will relax, and some might become viable again. We have MLA, IAD, ANU and CPT in MMB. I have no intention of adding to the list in the vague hope that FCO advice or destination Border restrictions might ease. We will be just be grateful if we can salvage anything for our 2020 programme,
BTW, very glad you’re here, and giving your time to the BAFT community. Respect. 👏
#30
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 629
The value of avios at the moment is the same as it has always been - zero.
They are only worth what you are prepared to spend them on, it’s a completely personal decision and it’s why the attempts to put a ‘true’ value on an avios point are futile.
They are only worth what you are prepared to spend them on, it’s a completely personal decision and it’s why the attempts to put a ‘true’ value on an avios point are futile.