travellingjake

One reason why it’s unlikely to happen, but should Heathrow have put so many of their eggs in BA’s basket?

Joeykins

I think you're giving the US administration too much credit. The governments of the Schengen countries only found about about the first iteration of the travel restrictions when it was announced from the Oval Office...

Andriyko

It is not a downturn. The measures some governments are implementing are dealing death blows to the travel industry. Do not forget that airlines fly almost empty planes during some months without laying off staff because they know that the passengers will come back, the same applies to hotels. There will always be slow periods for the travel industry, and the travel industry have never responded with layoffs for those slow periods. This madness is different though. Airlines won't make people redundant because there is no demand in the next few months, they will do it because they do not see demand long-term. The panic was created, the genie is out of the bottle and there is no putting him back in.

Also, businesses do not owe us an explanation about their redundancy plans and reasons for implementing them. That's between the employer and the employees.

I am not sure what solution you have in mind for the travel industry in this situation but from where I stand, they are in deep ****. This is why the governments must step in because this is of their own making and they must protect people's livelihoods.

TTmex

Can't see iag going bust. Too much infrastructure and dependence on it. Either government would bail it out or there would a cash injection from a private source. With such enormous potential profit margins, I'm sure some kind of cash rich investor would be willing to snap up cheap shares and keep it afloat.

Bohinjska Bistrica

The long-term damage cannot be foreseen currently, though. The industry is indeed screwed for the next couple of months at least, but ultimately no one knows how long this is going to last. It pretty much comes down to how effective the Chinese response to this has been - everyone shut away for weeks and the rate of infection drastically slowed to a tiny amount.

However, the proof will be in what happens when the measure is relaxed. If the infection rates spike again, then we are ultimately we are all back to square one and thus is going to be a long haul until a vaccine is developed.

​​​​​If it works, then we are all going to have to take on a dreadfully boring month of house arrest, I think.

The memo my comments referred to was an internal memo and not one issued to the public.
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As for the solution, it seems as though some sort of state aid for many industries is inevitable to prevent large-scale job losses and/or economic collapse. The problem is much wider than just the travel industry.

Edited to add: looks like VS think the UK's airline sector needs Ł7.5bn.


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Workie Ticket

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news....ilout-11957708

Virgin Atlantic boss urges Boris Johnson to sanction Ł7.5bn airline bailout

Tinseltown

Same where I work. And I also think business behavior will shift once this has passed: more working from home, less travel and a lot more web-based meetings.

And whilst there may be many here who won't like that shift, there might be a silver lining there for ’the greater good’.

From a business perspective, companies save money that was spent on travel. And it turns out that many work more effectively sans office politics. Plus I don't know about everyone else here, but I work a few hours longer (the time I’d spend commuting) when I don't have to commute and get more stuff done.

And despite working longer hours, I feel less fatigued (it feels as though I have a better work/life balance). All this only works, of course, if you have all your tech set up at home.

The airline industry will have to re-invent itself. Not sure how though.

Andriyko

But airlines can see the long-term damage because they see what the bookings are.

And you are absolutely right in saying that the problem is much wider and does not just affect the travel industry. I fear the repeat of 2008-2009 and the job losses across all industries that accompanied those horrible years.

Tinseltown

There's a knack to web-based meetings/workshops. You can't conduct it like a live meeting and you need to change the structure of it all. When done well, it could actually be better than normal workshops/meetings.

If you're the meeting organiser, you can put everyone else on mute. Questions can be asked at a particular time (won't disturb your flow and you enable their microphones then), etc. I guess kids who are used to playing video games with total strangers will be better at using this technology in future.

TTmex

Agreed. Today I was on 50 people meeting for university. What made the difference was having a formal organizer running the logistics. It flowed smoothly and was no different to being in the conference room

Bohinjska Bistrica

I do wonder if the longer term picture can still be rescued? No doubt bookings aren't where they would usually be, but if we start getting over the worst may begin to recover? Trouble I guess is knowing when "the worst" will actually be.
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I sincerely hope it is soon, for the reasons you've highlighted. We all know the short term is bad, but just hope we can avoid a prolonged hit and minimise the damage.

Confus

Boris hates BA - from the time when as mayor of London he made a public shout about buying economy longhaul but then getting his PA to call up and demand a free upgrade (but BA - rightly - refused).
No one really knows what will happen. I guess government intervention is ok after private sources of funding have been exhausted - but there’s probably still a few of those around. And if government does get involved, there will (/should) be a legal intervention from those behind flybe, as they were sacrificed in the name of ‘free enterprise’.

LGWClosedAgain

If IAG needs money they should ask the Spanish government...

Andriyko

Unfortunately none of us has a crystal ball, Two weeks ago we were discussing which airline BA may buy, a week ago we were discussing how BA has 3 billion euro in cash to survive this crisis, and now we are talking about redundancies and a possible not-so-very-bright future for BA. The GBP7.5 bailout request from Virgin speaks volumes.

Something has gone horribly horribly wrong here, and all we can do is accept the consequences of the decisions made. I can more or less see how other industries will return to business as usual at some point, whenever that is, but I fear the implications for the travel industry are much more dire. The worst thing is that it did not have to happen this way.

let_BAegones_be

How soon do you think they will start to cut back on employee numbers?

Is it fair to assume that they would start with WW and EURO fleet as they are more expensive to employ than mixed fleet?