DFB_london

sorry but that is scaremongering.

its not 1 in 30, but 1 in a 100 of those reported/tested.

It’s possible that where’s it’s mild then those mildly infected are being missed from that stats, so it might be less. It’s an uncertain number, But it’s is NOT 1 in 30 based on any of the better founded more scientifically based reports so far.

In this context I think it is fair to call the OP (and the above ) out - how the individuals reported became infected seems to have no relationship to their their role at BA, therefore why is it relevant to BA?

More widely, for those in denial, it’s looks probable around 70pct of us will get it. Most governments’ tactics so far seem to be just finding a way to make that less of a peak bulge of infection and more spread out,.This is so health services in Europe are not overwhelmed - and can thus focus on those most in need, ie the elderly and immune compromised.

If there’s going to be any scaremongering, then pause to think what happens when it hits the USA - with a sizeable population with no access to free at point of use healthcare.

flatlander

"Guardian reports 2 BA crew with Corona virus
I am not cancelling my flights yet but interesting to know:"

Unsure if this was intended, by the original author, to stoke concern or simply to be menacing but it isn't a harmless phrasing.

DFB_london

People die all the time. This will elevate it for sure, but perhaps suggestions that healthcare will ‘collapse’ is a response equally starved of oxygen. Let’s be clear - you can slow but you can’t stop viral transmission unless everyone self quarantines - then food and healthcare etc will collapse.
The most worrisome scenarios I’ve seen concern the US - due to its already poor healthcare (if at all) for many of those most at risk.

mjack99

I certainly was not meaning to stir things up, just reporting what I saw in the Guardian (as mentioned, I erroneously wrote 'crew' and would be happy for a mod to change the subject).

cupsandsaucers

WHO have the most robust data out there. It's their job.
They have said a mortality rate of around 3.4%.

That is near as damn. 1 in 30.

End of story.

crazy8534

Honestly, I wish you were right.
2 months ago I thought you were.
You should have a look on twitter at some of the reports from the italian ITU doctors who are dealing with the outbreak there.

I really hope that in July you can re-post, quote me and tell me how wrong I was.

crazy8534

Indeed, and for comparison the mortality from seasonal 'flu is around 0.1%
(US rate, annualised from data over past decade)

xarantine

Be very careful with mortality rates - the WHO's initial report includes data from very early in the outbreak when healthcare staff in Wuhan didn't really have any idea what they were dealing with, which will lead to an inflated CFR.

However, even that report says that the CFR for those with no comorbid conditions was 1.4% (this includes the elderly), and is almost certainly an overestimate due to underdiagnosis.

CFRs are also far more useful when stratified by age and pre-existing conditions.

General opinion among epidemiologists [1, 2, 3] is that the generalised CFR is between 0.5% and 1%.

USA_flyer

If we're looking at this objectively, the WHO has said 3.4% mortality rate with the government predicting worst case scenario 80% of us will get it. That's about 1.8m deaths in the UK alone.

Even 10% of that would be fairly dramatic.

toadman

What do you mean by "When"? It's already here. But our dear leader, Trump says to keep working, even when you are sick, and COVID-19 is no big deal. So, we've got that going for us. Cheers!

ahmetdouas

So 5 billion people will get the virus? Right now we are at 100,000. If this isn’t scaremongering than what is ?

by the way summer is on the way, as chief medical officer said, focus is on delaying outbreak until end of flu season

AlanA

I am 61, a diabetic so hit the target demographic, but I too think it’s over hype n]by the press who now onky write what’s in Twitter and forums not real news.
every year on average influenza kills 6,000, 26,000 die in road incedents, yet the fact one person has died has caused mass panic in tge stores.

ridiculous

mcbg1

Once again, if people just wash their hands and avoid touching their face, they will be fine. I'm over the hysteria around this virus. The stats being mentioned in this thread are ridiculous.

Ivanerr

I like the fact that a WHO official says "this is not a drill" and "time to pull out all the stops" and some people who are probably nowhere near the virology field say "that's just hysteria".

USA_flyer

How is it ridiculous. Approx 100,000 people have been diagnosed with it and approx 3,300 people have died.