Blumie

I'm posting this in the BA forum because I'm interested in the weather at LHR and whether I should switch my AA flight to BA.
Let me also add that I'm not the better-safe-than-sorry type. By which I mean to say that if a pilot for a major commercial airline is willing to fly notwithstanding the weather forecast, I'll get on that plane; I'm not going to second guess her.

I just arrived at JFK for AA100, the 18:15 JFK-LHR flight tonight (Saturday night, arriving early Sunday morning). I was advised when I checked in that the flight is delayed until 20:30 due to weather. Which I found odd, because when I looked at the board, I saw that all nine of AA and BA's other JFK-LON flights tonight are operating on time. I naturally assumed that "weather" was AA's code for a late inbound aircraft or a delayed crew. But the AA agents insist that it's weather related, and one even showed me a weather map forecasting typhoon-like weather at LHR on Sunday morning.

As I was typing this, AA100 has been further delayed to 21:30, but now AA106, AA's scheduled 20:30 departure also has been delayed to 21:30, giving further credence to AA's claim of weather. But all of BA's flights, including departures at 18:30, 18:50, and 19:25, are still showing on time.

What are people seeing in London? Do you think AA is being too conservative by proactively delaying their flights? Should I ask to switch to one of the BA flights? I'm connecting to AUH, and while I still have plenty of time for my connection, I wouldn't mind landing at T5 rather than T3. No checked bags, and good availability in F, so I should be able to get AA to switch me if I ask.

rossmacd

If there is a seat available and you can switch to an on-time flight, do you really need to ask here?

Blumie

I guess I wasn't clear in my post. The question really is whether the BA flights are likely to operate on time, even though my flight is delayed three hours. Because clearly the answer to your question is yes! My concern is asking to switch, dealing with the hassle of changing terminals and reclearing security, only to find that the BA flights end up equally delayed.

flygod

BA's pilots have probably flown in to a lot of the European alternates many times earlier in their career on short-haul. Just as AA's pilots have probably flown into lots of US alternates.

So perhaps a matter of practicality why BA more confident that AA on a east-bound?

scottishpoet

or ba are being more optimistic that slots delays will improve and plan to board on time in the hope a 2 hour delay can be reduced to a one our delay if they say they are ready to go

Flier74

BA have proactively delayed quite a number of 747 departures tonight inbound to LHR in order to avoid the worst of Storm “Dennis” in the morning and I guess to avoid go arounds diversions as much as possible, which may still happen who knows.
So if was the OP just stick to what you are booked on and hope for the best.
HAL has also asked for some retimings from Airlines for the same reason

Often1

The frame performing AA 100 arrived from GRU last night at 23:20, about 19 minutes early. Thus, the supervisor really isn't lying.

The delay could be as simple as extended spacing across the North Atlantic in this particular time slot. Conjecture about who is "conservative" and whether AA PIC's are "comfortable" with diversions in the UK or on the Continent is just that: conjecture.

AA spends a great deal of time, effort & money on projecting delays so that aircraft can be held at the departure point rather than holding or being diverted on the other end.

jeremyBA

I live 5 miles from Heathrow.

it is a bit breezy and there is some drizzly rain. I have just been out for the night and come home.

if is nothing like last weekend and much calmer. I am sure Dennis has hit some places but south west London is not one of them.

Blumie

I can see the aircraft at the gate, and have no reason not to believe when AA tells me the crew is available. At the end of the day, all I really care about, more than whether the information the airline is providing is accurate, is getting to LHR as quickly as possible (for no reason, given my long connection time, other than that I'd rather be there than here). So I simply am trying to devise a strategy.

BA have now delayed some, but not all, of their flights. Of course, the BA delays could be due to late arriving aircraft, or other reasons, and not at all due to tomorrow's weather. BA112, which departs in 20 minutes (15 minutes after the original scheduled departure time of my flight) is still showing on time. If that flight gets out on time, with an expected on time arrival, I will inquire about switching to BA116, the 20:15 departure, which also still is showing on time, has F seats available, and will bring me to T5 rather than T3.

Not the end of the world if I stay on my AA flight, but these games are ones we often find ourselves playing, no?

Blumie

Never mind. BA116 just went from F4 to F0 (presumably with passengers being reaccommodated from other flights, or maybe airport upgrades), so I'll be sticking with AA100 tonight. Although I still have plenty of cushion for my connection, I wouldn't complain if I get stuck in London for the night. Save me a seat at the bar at The Wigmore.

tjcxx

It's a bit more than "a bit breezy". Last weekend I lost one greenhouse pane. I've heard the crashing sound three times today. The forecast was indeed less extreme than last weekend, but it's more sustained today. And it's due through into tomorrow midday. That's 24 hours of it.

Anyway, from what I can see, all the BA flights into JFK have or will arrive on or close to on time. The departure delays are interesting -- there's a general departure delay till after 21.00, but BA112 did get away early (with a very early arrival expected) and BA116 is still on time at 20.15

In answer to the original query, last weekend AA cancelled the full programme of flights to LHR (or 90% of it.) BA didn't (on the corresponding routes).

On the other hand, when I look at LHR departures on a typical bad weather day, AA gets away on time generally, when BA delays mount.

Often1

It could be sunny and 80 at both JFK and LHR. Take 5 minutes and look at the weather map over the NA as well as some of the video of Dennis and you may understand why the trained professionals are making the judgment calls they have made.

Blumie

I’m not sure why you’re always so combative. I’m not so much questioning anyone’s judgment, but rather just that some flights are delayed three hours due to weather, while others, on the same route at the same time, are operating on time. I’m sure there’s a valid reason. I’m just trying to come up with my own personal strategy.

So, because I can’t leave well enough alone, I switched to BA172, which still is operating on time. After the 20 or so minutes it took for AA to make the change, a quick change of terminals, and the 15 minutes it took for the TSA agent to identify the suspicious metal credit card in my bag, I only had 5 minutes in the CCR. But boarding began an hour before flight time. I’ve got my jammies and my champers. It looks like I made a good call.

What is people’s advice on arrival at T5, where I expect to have a 3-hour connection to BA73 (to AUH)? First dining in the arrivals lounge or breakfast in the CCR? Either way I intend to go through immigration and reclear security at First check in.

Blumie

For those keeping score at home, we just pushed back 10 minutes early.

Prospero

Having just been woken by windows rattling in the wind, I’d thought I run a provision score. Your decision to switch to the BA172 was very astute, but.... still too early to call though.