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-   -   Extremely full TATL flight - chances of beng involuntarily bumped on redemption? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/british-airways-executive-club/1989597-extremely-full-tatl-flight-chances-beng-involuntarily-bumped-redemption.html)

ColonelHughPickering Oct 1, 2019 9:53 am

Extremely full TATL flight - chances of beng involuntarily bumped on redemption?
 
I'm flying to London from the US in a few days for a family event.

I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.

Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...327103e0c5.png
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).

I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.

How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?

UKtravelbear Oct 1, 2019 10:03 am

does it happen? yes it does but not as often people think it does - especially on international flights

Personally many on here wouldn't worry but make sure you do OLCI as early as possible.

Yes if you think an earluer flight is a better option then yes look to change to it but remember (a) there may not be any redemtions on it and (b) there may be change fees to pay as well

BTW is is very useful to give the route as you will get more tailored adviceand there could be specific reasons that could affect flights.

DYKWIA Oct 1, 2019 10:13 am

You're a Gold, so I think it's extremely unlikely you'd get bumped.

fruitcage Oct 1, 2019 10:13 am

Being bumped or downgraded is very rare indeed. Where it becomes much more likely is when there is a plane swap from a large to a smaller plane, or where operational problems force cancellations, and then there just aren't enough seats to go round on the remaining flights.

You can decrease your already-small chances of problems by choosing seats in advance (free for GCH) and checking in at the earliest opportunity. Your GCH status also helps reduce the chance.

tuonopepper Oct 1, 2019 10:17 am


Originally Posted by ColonelHughPickering (Post 31582809)
I'm flying to London from the US in a few days for a family event.

I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.

Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...327103e0c5.png
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).

I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.

How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?

Personally I'd leave it. I'd go in and select my seat (if you can) and do OLCI. There's a chance some of those will be no shows, there's a chance people will get shuffled around the cabins, there's a chance they'll ask for volunteers at the gate and if you have time to spare you could cash in.

I don't think the reward booking makes much, if any difference, you could argue the other that your status makes it less likely you'll get bumped. Given you have time on your side I'd leave it to fate.

MSPeconomist Oct 1, 2019 10:19 am

Can the OP check whether there's been an aircraft or schedule change?

In addition to getting seats NOW if OP hasn't already done this and doing OLCI ASAP, OP should research Plan B, C, D, etc. in advance and carry hard copies of details of alternate flights. Become familiar with BA CoC and EC261 rules as well as USA DOT rules for IDBs, which require solicitation of volunteers.

OP might also want to think in advance whether to accept WT seats on the flight if WT+ isn't available.

SK AAR Oct 1, 2019 10:21 am

The chance of you being invol. bumped from this flight is very close to zero - in particular if you do OLCI. BA is obliged to look for volunteers for VDB and often there will more than enough pax prepared to give up their seats in exchange of cash. There is nothing to worry about - you will be on that flight.

HIDDY Oct 1, 2019 10:27 am


Originally Posted by DYKWIA (Post 31582876)
You're a Gold, so I think it's extremely unlikely you'd get bumped.


I would have thought so...I would bet on the OP being upgraded to CW than being thrown off.

MSPeconomist Oct 1, 2019 10:30 am

Please report back.

Cymro Oct 1, 2019 10:30 am

Honestly, I'd be 100 times more worried about getting stuck in traffic on the way to the airport than being bumped from the flight.

You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.

The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.

The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.

MSPeconomist Oct 1, 2019 10:33 am


Originally Posted by Cymro (Post 31582947)
Honestly, I'd be 100 times more worried about getting stuck in traffic on the way to the airport than being bumped from the flight.

You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.

The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.

The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.

NO, F1 means that the airline is willing to pay someone else to get off the flight, and to pay to downgrade someone else, if a customer appears late and is willing to buy an extremely expensive ticket, much more than the cost of an IDV/VDB and/or downgrade compensation.

rapidex Oct 1, 2019 10:35 am

F1 means that BA are happy to bump a Y passenger if they can sell a full fare F ticket. There is almost no chance of BA bumping a Gold in WT+.

Often1 Oct 1, 2019 10:42 am

The real risks here are weather & mechanical. Denied boarding for oversale is way, way, way down the risk list.

We don't know your routing (most helpful if you would supply), but there may also be alternatives in the event that the very slim risk becomes a reality.

ColonelHughPickering Oct 1, 2019 11:14 am

I'm glad to hear it's not very likely! I guess I probably knew that, but just wanted a bit of reassurance as the only time I've ever been bumped was on the same flight to another family function 5 years ago (which I missed).

For those who were wondering, the flight is 214 BOS-LHR on Oct. 3. It looks like the earlier flight was cancelled - maybe explaining how full it is.

Pocalypse Oct 1, 2019 11:14 am

How do you get a single result in EF to show both revenue and reward buckets (F and Z)?


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