BA First pricing sudden price hike
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2019
Programs: BA execurive Club
Posts: 8
BA First pricing sudden price hike
I've been looking at booking a flight with BA to PHX from LHR leaving on Thurs 16/1/20 and returning 20/1/20. I normally fly CW but first was only £200 each way more expensive and with free immediate seat booking ( I'm only Blue on Executive Club), saving nearly £200.
Prices for some time have been around £1,100(GBP) outbound and £900 return.
Yesterday the outbound flight went up to a staggering £8,100. I checked the seat allocations and only two seats out of 8 have been allocated in first (it's a Dreamliner), which has been the case for some time.
It is still possible to book a return First for £2,000 via LAX on a 747.
As a final note when using the low price checker on BA.com it says there are no flight available to PHX in First for less that 7 nights stay.
Does anyone understand BA's rationale here or is it a glitch maybe related to the IT problems a few days ago?
My first post and I thank you in advance for reading it.
Regards
Alan
Prices for some time have been around £1,100(GBP) outbound and £900 return.
Yesterday the outbound flight went up to a staggering £8,100. I checked the seat allocations and only two seats out of 8 have been allocated in first (it's a Dreamliner), which has been the case for some time.
It is still possible to book a return First for £2,000 via LAX on a 747.
As a final note when using the low price checker on BA.com it says there are no flight available to PHX in First for less that 7 nights stay.
Does anyone understand BA's rationale here or is it a glitch maybe related to the IT problems a few days ago?
My first post and I thank you in advance for reading it.
Regards
Alan
#3
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Belgium
Programs: BA Silver
Posts: 146
I've been looking at booking a flight with BA to PHX from LHR leaving on Thurs 16/1/20 and returning 20/1/20. I normally fly CW but first was only £200 each way more expensive and with free immediate seat booking ( I'm only Blue on Executive Club), saving nearly £200.
Prices for some time have been around £1,100(GBP) outbound and £900 return.
Yesterday the outbound flight went up to a staggering £8,100. I checked the seat allocations and only two seats out of 8 have been allocated in first (it's a Dreamliner), which has been the case for some time.
It is still possible to book a return First for £2,000 via LAX on a 747.
As a final note when using the low price checker on BA.com it says there are no flight available to PHX in First for less that 7 nights stay.
Does anyone understand BA's rationale here or is it a glitch maybe related to the IT problems a few days ago?
My first post and I thank you in advance for reading it.
Regards
Alan
Prices for some time have been around £1,100(GBP) outbound and £900 return.
Yesterday the outbound flight went up to a staggering £8,100. I checked the seat allocations and only two seats out of 8 have been allocated in first (it's a Dreamliner), which has been the case for some time.
It is still possible to book a return First for £2,000 via LAX on a 747.
As a final note when using the low price checker on BA.com it says there are no flight available to PHX in First for less that 7 nights stay.
Does anyone understand BA's rationale here or is it a glitch maybe related to the IT problems a few days ago?
My first post and I thank you in advance for reading it.
Regards
Alan
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2019
Programs: BA execurive Club
Posts: 8
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Falkirk, Scotland,VS Red, BA Gold, HH Diamond,UK Amex Plat
Programs: Master of the Privy Purse des Muccis
Posts: 17,899
Hi.
It is the dreamliner in winter 19/20 then goes to a 777 300 from summer 2020 and from t5
Regards
Tbs
It is the dreamliner in winter 19/20 then goes to a 777 300 from summer 2020 and from t5
Regards
Tbs
#7
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2019
Programs: BA execurive Club
Posts: 8
It's quite recent. When I first looked it was a 747, it was about a month ago that the Dreamliner appeared. I'm guessing that most passengers that fly First would try to avoid a 747 as I assume that have a much older hard product than say a Dreamliner or A380. Interestingly the cheap(£2,000) fare via LAX is on a 747, I though that route was A380's.
#8
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Gloucestershire
Programs: BA Gold (ex-GGL, maybe future Silver), Hilton Diamond
Posts: 6,197
BA has simply looked at the loading, decided that it was more likely to sell 1× fully flex F at £8k to someone for whom money is not a concern (or maybe £4k from Prague but whatever) than it is to sell 4× cheap A fares. So an empty cabin with only expensive tickets sold looks preferable - and thus BA has set the price accordingly. A big part of that is that there is not the same level of "shading" in price that you find in economy, or even Club - so that when prices in F jump, they can jump in a big way.
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Netherlands
Programs: KL Platinum; A3 Gold
Posts: 28,697
You (and the bulk of FT contributors) may be the type to immediately select a seat once you've booked a ticket, but many travellers aren't so eager and often don't select a seat at the time of purchase.
#12
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: BA, Hilton
Posts: 2,091
Welcome to FlyerTalk alanred13 (I see you registered in June, so the standard issue warning about only being allowed 5 posts in your first 24 hours should not apply here )
I suspect Cymro has essentially nailed it here, and that BA revenue management have decided they will get more money from selling (possibly fewer) F bucket fares than filling the cabin with A class ones. Looking at the current availability for the outbound BA289 on Jan 16th 2020, we see:
F5 A0
Meaning BA are willing to sell up to 5 tickets in the higher F bucket, but none in the A bucket, which will correspond to the cheaper fares you were looking at. This may be because they've sold all they were prepared to sell in A, or simply the dark arts of revenue management changing what they make available based on what they think they can sell.
If you look at the Friday 17th, you see:
F6 A1
So they'll still sell you one fairly cheapish First class ticket if that travel date is any use to you, although it is 1300 rather than the 1100 you were seeing before.
Finally as others have pointed out, the seat map does not directly relate to tickets sold, although in the First cabin there is probably a stronger correlation as F tickets come with free seat selection, so more people will probably select at time of purchase. However, even with free selection, some simply won't care. Indeed, the fact they are only selling 5 more F tickets suggests they have sold tickets to some people who are yet to select a seat.
For the specific outbound you were looking at on the 16th, seat 1A is currently allocated and all the others are unallocated. It is even possible that the passenger in 1A bought the last A bucket ticket yesterday and that's why it's no longer available.
(EDIT: And rapidex puts it so much more succinctly!)
I suspect Cymro has essentially nailed it here, and that BA revenue management have decided they will get more money from selling (possibly fewer) F bucket fares than filling the cabin with A class ones. Looking at the current availability for the outbound BA289 on Jan 16th 2020, we see:
F5 A0
Meaning BA are willing to sell up to 5 tickets in the higher F bucket, but none in the A bucket, which will correspond to the cheaper fares you were looking at. This may be because they've sold all they were prepared to sell in A, or simply the dark arts of revenue management changing what they make available based on what they think they can sell.
If you look at the Friday 17th, you see:
F6 A1
So they'll still sell you one fairly cheapish First class ticket if that travel date is any use to you, although it is 1300 rather than the 1100 you were seeing before.
Finally as others have pointed out, the seat map does not directly relate to tickets sold, although in the First cabin there is probably a stronger correlation as F tickets come with free seat selection, so more people will probably select at time of purchase. However, even with free selection, some simply won't care. Indeed, the fact they are only selling 5 more F tickets suggests they have sold tickets to some people who are yet to select a seat.
For the specific outbound you were looking at on the 16th, seat 1A is currently allocated and all the others are unallocated. It is even possible that the passenger in 1A bought the last A bucket ticket yesterday and that's why it's no longer available.
(EDIT: And rapidex puts it so much more succinctly!)
#13
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2019
Programs: BA execurive Club
Posts: 8
When you try and book it says there are 5 seats available at this price, so a maximum of 3 have been sold. (8 seat cabin)
#14
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: BA, Hilton
Posts: 2,091
BA oversell First by 1 in certain circumstances as rapidex notes, so it could be 4 tickets sold. We don't have the info to be absolutely sure either way.
#15
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2019
Programs: BA execurive Club
Posts: 8