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IAG signs LOI for 200 737MAX - some for BA LGW

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Old Jun 30, 2019, 3:58 am
  #241  
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
It was properly reviewed and agreed not to be a critical to safety function. Hindsight is very easy to apply: square windows were once not thought unsafe.

It absolutely cannot have been properly reviewed though because it got through the process. Or the wrong / inexperienced people reviewed it. I have bolded your word "hindsight" because this sums it up. A true and effective safety culture does not use the word hindsight, it uses the word "foresight" to run constant "what-if" scenarios over and over again with all possible failure modes of sensors, sub-systems etc, differing pilot experience levels etc. The analogy with the Comet square windows is not at all valid because that is nearly 70 years ago, long before the effects of metal fatigue were understood and way before the safety standards of today therefore could not have been anticipated. I trust you are not suggesting this MCAS situation could not have been anticipated?

Originally Posted by bisonrav
That’s all it takes and why accidents still happen, not everything can be anticipated.
In a proper top-down, bottom-up safety culture they certainly can be. The words "anticipate" and "foresight" are absolutely paramount in a proper safety culture. To any aircraft engineer, having a system that can take control of the aircraft (and at low level) and is also vulnerable to being deployed as a result of a single faulty sensor without redundancy is truly shocking. To only find this out with hindsight after 346 deaths is ok?
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 4:03 am
  #242  
 
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Originally Posted by bisonrav

Actually Boeing are probably right that had the pilots followed the prescribed recovery methods the situation was recoverable. This will be tested in simulators.
I think this is more of an issue than people realise. Ethiopian have a MAX simulator but it was only delivered in January so not all their pilots had been on it and, apparently, it wasn't designed to replicate the current issues anyway. No American airlines have a MAX simulator yet - one or two will be getting one this year. I'm wondering if the airlines will wait until they have the simulators and have retrained enough pilots before they'll start flying the aircraft again.
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 5:01 am
  #243  
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I have wondered about the two 7M8 crashes more than a few times. The first Lion Air in Indonesia and second Ethiopian in Ethiopia. While both were shocking at least the planes did not come down over a populated area perhaps thanks to the pilots but we'll never know. The behaviour of Boeing and the FAA is well documented.

Now just imagine if the first one had been American Airlines on departure from JFK and the second one Air Canada on departure from Toronto and neither was able to avoid coming down in an urban and populated area.

I wonder how different the reactions of Boeing, the FAA and the rather ill informed Sam Graves: “Pilots trained in the United States would have successfully been able to handle” the emergencies on both jets, said Rep. Sam Graves of Missouri, ranking member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

I suspect it would all have been very different.

And BA want to buy Boeings.
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 5:35 am
  #244  
 
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Originally Posted by BOH
It absolutely cannot have been properly reviewed though because it got through the process. Or the wrong / inexperienced people reviewed it. I have bolded your word "hindsight" because this sums it up. A true and effective safety culture does not use the word hindsight, it uses the word "foresight" to run constant "what-if" scenarios over and over again with all possible failure modes of sensors, sub-systems etc, differing pilot experience levels etc. The analogy with the Comet square windows is not at all valid because that is nearly 70 years ago, long before the effects of metal fatigue were understood and way before the safety standards of today therefore could not have been anticipated. I trust you are not suggesting this MCAS situation could not have been anticipated?



In a proper top-down, bottom-up safety culture they certainly can be. The words "anticipate" and "foresight" are absolutely paramount in a proper safety culture. To any aircraft engineer, having a system that can take control of the aircraft (and at low level) and is also vulnerable to being deployed as a result of a single faulty sensor without redundancy is truly shocking. To only find this out with hindsight after 346 deaths is ok?
This is just hyperbole. Accidents can happen with any system of risk review, and in aviation they are often catastrophic. Accidents happen because a sequence of events are not anticipated. The number of deaths is irrelevant here, the obvious point is that it wasn’t anticipated. Accidents caused by faulty logic with instrumentation happen to Aiirbuses too, with Air Asia Indonesia and Air France, essentially both the same issue as each other. .... happens.

After Lion Air, MCAS was very rapidly fingered and specific instructions to review the relevant instructions natructions were issued by Boeing. At the time the FAA were satisfied with that. It’s extremely surprising in view of that that the same thing happened again, either the instructions were wrong or they weren’t followed. The investigation will bottom that out.

But its not a reason not to get an option to order, still less to grab the pitchforks and go after Boeing. If there’s any corporate culpability they’ll get hammered anyway and the option will lapse.

As Blake put it, what is now known was once only imagined. So it goes with safety, and the more so with the complex interactions accidents need to happen these days.
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 6:39 am
  #245  
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
But the point here here is that beyond asking to put Boeing out of business and never darkening their orderbook again, what exactly are people expecting?
I'd say:

1) Do some soul searching to understand how things got so wrong and notably how could warnings be "buried under the carpet" instead of using them as a prompt to conduct more checks at a time disasters could still be averted;

2) Revise their policies and operations to ensure that it cannot happen again and be clear about what they have changed;

3) Be specific about the new levels and processes of safety testing that they will use for the revised 73X and how they differ from the previous processes that they used;

4) Possibly allow some volunteer external auditing of their current and proposed safety processes

In a way, it seems that you consider it is enough that they are simply complying with their regulatory obligations by "cooperating", but for many of us, it is not. None of what you describe as Boeing now doing corresponds to anything voluntary or going beyond their strict obligations and all the qualifications ("intense" scrutiny, "fully" cooperating, etc) are merely interpretations which merely seem to be Boeing's self-description of their own attitude and not corresponding to any specific fact that I have personally read about. For anyone considering that the safety culture has been found to be insufficient (ie in cruder words, that the whole incident suggests that Boeing has not specifically and voluntarily put safety above their financial and operational goals throughout the 73X crisis), merely complying is, by nature, not going to come across as a change of attitude as it merely exposes Boeing as doing the minimum that they are obliged to.

Originally Posted by bisonrav
This is just hyperbole. Accidents can happen with any system of risk review, and in aviation they are often catastrophic. Accidents happen because a sequence of events are not anticipated. The number of deaths is irrelevant here, the obvious point is that it wasn’t anticipated


Individual accidents yes. This was not an individual accident, that is the whole point.
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 8:46 am
  #246  
 
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Originally Posted by bisonrav


This is just hyperbole. Accidents can happen with any system of risk review, and in aviation they are often catastrophic. Accidents happen because a sequence of events are not anticipated. The number of deaths is irrelevant here, the obvious point is that it wasn’t anticipated. Accidents caused by faulty logic with instrumentation happen to Aiirbuses too, with Air Asia Indonesia and Air France, essentially both the same issue as each other. .... happens.

After Lion Air, MCAS was very rapidly fingered and specific instructions to review the relevant instructions natructions were issued by Boeing. At the time the FAA were satisfied with that. It’s extremely surprising in view of that that the same thing happened again, either the instructions were wrong or they weren’t followed. The investigation will bottom that out.

But its not a reason not to get an option to order, still less to grab the pitchforks and go after Boeing. If there’s any corporate culpability they’ll get hammered anyway and the option will lapse.

As Blake put it, what is now known was once only imagined. So it goes with safety, and the more so with the complex interactions accidents need to happen these days.
Without wishing to be rude, your attitude seems very much to be one that was considered appropriate about 50 years ago, but, thankfully, isn't really seen in aviation today. The reason aviation has developed from being a relatively unsafe method of transportation into by far the statistically safest method of getting somewhere over the last 50 years is because both airlines and aviation regulators have taken the view that "oh well, s*** happens" is a totally inappropriate response to uncovering safety issues. "Accidents happen" is absolutely not the expected response to two planes full of people dying due likely to exactly the same issue in 2019. Personally I'm quite happy for that to be the case.
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 9:41 am
  #247  
 
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Originally Posted by bisonrav

But the point here here is that beyond asking to put Boeing out of business and never darkening their orderbook again, what exactly are people expecting? They are working with the authorities to determine cause. From what I have read, intense scrutiny is being applied. Wait for the report, then by all means go after those responsible. Good deal to get a big option dirt cheap for IAG, it’s a classic bet to nothing.
So, you object to anyone rushing to judgment about Boeing’s actions, and at the same time endorse IAG’s exploitation of precisely that judgment in using Boeing’s predicament to secure what is probably a massive discount on the option. Cake and eat it springs to mind...

I don’t think Boeing should be out of business. However, its “cooperation” with investigations needs to be seen in the context of the fact that the Max is only grounded due to the FAA being forced to act, following authorities in many other jurisdictions taking action first, and US politicians recognising a toxic situation approaching when they see one. Up to that point, Boeing seemed pretty confident its cosy FAA relationship could keep it in the air. Humility has not been much in evidence so far, and Boeing could have shown some without admitting legal liability.
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Old Jun 30, 2019, 9:54 am
  #248  
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
This is just hyperbole.
In your opinion it may be. But I described quite accurately how a proper safety culture should operate, based on some 30 years combined of working in military test flying, civil aviation as a licensed avionics engineer and rail signalling where a SIL4 environment is standard in both.

How you are describing things is what it was like decades ago where the culture was more, "accidents happen". Thankfully the days you live in are long gone, these two accidents with the MAX were entirely preventable and some basic foresight, anticipation and running some critical "what-if" scenarios (the absolute bedrock of a safety culture) would have prevented these.
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Old Jul 2, 2019, 3:29 am
  #249  
 
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Oh dear...

In line with FT Rules, a small snippet to give you the gist

Source: MSN.com

"It remains the mystery at the heart of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max crisis: how a company renowned for meticulous design made seemingly basic software mistakes leading to a pair of deadly crashes. Longtime Boeing engineers say the effort was complicated by a push to outsource work to lower-paid contractors.

The Max software -- plagued by issues that could keep the planes grounded months longer after U.S. regulators this week revealed a new flaw -- was developed at a time Boeing was laying off experienced engineers and pressing suppliers to cut costs.

Increasingly, the iconic American planemaker and its subcontractors have relied on temporary workers making as little as $9 an hour to develop and test software, often from countries lacking a deep background in aerospace -- notably India."


Full article here -> https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ADzCXz?ocid=sf
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Old Jul 2, 2019, 3:51 am
  #250  
 
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Originally Posted by Tiger_lily
Oh dear...

In line with FT Rules, a small snippet to give you the gist

Source: MSN.com

"It remains the mystery at the heart of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max crisis: how a company renowned for meticulous design made seemingly basic software mistakes leading to a pair of deadly crashes. Longtime Boeing engineers say the effort was complicated by a push to outsource work to lower-paid contractors.

The Max software -- plagued by issues that could keep the planes grounded months longer after U.S. regulators this week revealed a new flaw -- was developed at a time Boeing was laying off experienced engineers and pressing suppliers to cut costs.

Increasingly, the iconic American planemaker and its subcontractors have relied on temporary workers making as little as $9 an hour to develop and test software, often from countries lacking a deep background in aerospace -- notably India."


Full article here -> https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ADzCXz?ocid=sf
I work in the engineering consulting industry, this is nothing new, if you aren't doing a significant portion of the design work in india, you're not getting the job. Doesn't matter how competitive you are, it's the perception you can be cheaper and faster if you get the work done in india. It's a race to the bottom. Having said that, some of the best engineers I've worked with are indian, so it's a bit silly to say they lack an understanding of aerospace technology, or biotech etc etc. Where the project struggles is communication and difficulties of multi office execution primarily from tight deadlines, differences in time zones, cultures etc etc, i.e. you're coming in and they're going home, 4 of your local leads are taking 2 weeks off for diwali etc and you're in deep .....

P.S.
9$ is very generous, last consultancy I worked for, the cost was about 5€ for jr engineers, and we were still billing them for same amount as the irish engineers (>50€/hr for jr, 65-75€/hr for 5+yrs exp, 85€+ for 10+ yrs exp, 110€+), multiplication factor for margins was 2x for local employees (bare rates, so cost of someone billed at 50 was about 25 give or take) and 1.404 for contractors (so contractor billed at 65€ made 46€/hr), so you can see how it works, you're making 2x on local guys, 20x on indians.

Edit of course the above is for reimburse projects (holy grail), fixed price is more tricky, you off load more and more stuff on to the indians to keep up the margins which the clients tend to prefer these days (they know how much money we're making and they don't like it)
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Old Jul 2, 2019, 4:41 am
  #251  
 
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It’s funny how people who quite rightly slated BA for its IT policy and outsourcing would happily fly on an aircraft which seems to have been developed on the same save all possible costs model. Boeing should have accepted that the 737 had reached its maximum design potential and brought a new fit for purpose modern aircraft to the market. I suspect the design and development costs will seem small fry compared to what the Max is costing the company now and in the future
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Old Jul 2, 2019, 6:23 am
  #252  
 
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Who said anything about suggesting an "accidents happen" mentality? I didn't. What I said was explicitly "don't rush to judgement", and I went through in some detail the progression of events as they have emerged that led from a pilot aid function agreed by the FAA to be non-critical to safety to being something that appears to be a major contributory factor to an accident. When the report is published we will know better. That is the point at which to draw conclusions. I think everyone agrees that aviation accidents are complex combinations of unlikely events, and understanding why they happened and learning lessons is the entire point of the investigation. If it becomes an article of faith that "boeing bad" or "pilots heroic" you can miss important conclusions. And the plane is grounded, it will remain that way until the FAA are satisfied the accident is understood and lessons have been learned, so what precisely are people worrying about here?

The idea that Boeing corporate culture has led to safety deficiencies is just conjecture. Nothing more than that until it has been proved. Boeing are heavily restricted in what they can say for legal reasons. End of. And it is perfectly sensible for Willy Walsh to take a purchase option - it's a bet to nothing as far as he's concerned. It does seem that that offends people who would prefer to extract a pound of flesh from Boeing, but what exactly is he doing wrong? First sign of further trouble and the option gets torn up. By the time the option vests, the 737max will be the most scrutinised airliner in the sky, and I'll happily fly in one.

I don't think any of this is unreasonable, but hey ho. It may well end up that Boeing design practices end up being criticised, but wait for the report. Why is that so difficult for some to accept as a proposition? Apart from asking Boeing to come out and make commercially impossible statements before all the facts are known, or shutting the programme down completely and putting tens of thousands out of a job, what is the desired state exactly?
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Old Jul 4, 2019, 2:53 pm
  #253  
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I'm guessing but, by putting in an LOI, their manufacturing slots are reserved but 2 things 1)BA won't have had to make a down payment as this isn't a firm order and 2) if Boeing can't recover the reputation for the Max sufficiently, BA can walk away penalty free.

There is no downside on this deal for BA.

of course, if they do walk and still need new aircraft, they'll have to join the queue for Airbuses.

Ĺ
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Old Jul 5, 2019, 9:55 am
  #254  
 
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Originally Posted by USA_flyer
I'm guessing but, by putting in an LOI, their manufacturing slots are reserved but 2 things 1)BA won't have had to make a down payment as this isn't a firm order and 2) if Boeing can't recover the reputation for the Max sufficiently, BA can walk away penalty free.

There is no downside on this deal for BA.

of course, if they do walk and still need new aircraft, they'll have to join the queue for Airbuses.

Ĺ
IAG still have loads of A320 family options so they're already in the Airbus queue. They converted two of those options into firm orders last week and they're getting those aircraft delivered in 2021.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...iberia-459375/
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Old Jul 6, 2019, 8:41 am
  #255  
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Originally Posted by Schind
IAG still have loads of A320 family options so they're already in the Airbus queue. They converted two of those options into firm orders last week and they're getting those aircraft delivered in 2021.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...iberia-459375/
That's not my point. My point is, should IAG need 200 Airbus to replace their Maxes, they will have to join the queue. I said nothing about the Airbuses they have on order.
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