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Probable A380 Program Termination This Week - No last minute BA Order

Probable A380 Program Termination This Week - No last minute BA Order

Old Feb 12, 19, 10:39 am
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BOH
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Probable A380 Program Termination This Week - No last minute BA Order

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1PW2GE

Looks like the end of the A380 this week when on Thursday 14th July Airbus announce their annual results. Hit by poor demand due to the Boeing 77W followed by the B787 and A350, Airbus will have sold less than 30% of the forecast number by 2020 when they originally built the business case for go-ahead nearly 20 years ago.

Interestingly only last week Willie Walsh stated again that IAG (BA) would still take some new 380s if Airbus were more realistic on price. With the second-hand value now likely to fall by the expected Airbus announcement, I wonder if BA would take some second-hand examples, something else WW has also stated in the past

Sad day for aviation and Europe really, only flew on one once and that was on LHR-FRA when BA first introduced the 380 and there were only about an A320s worth of pax on board and probably only about 25% of fuel too. I recall it seeming that the engines only seemed to move slightly above idle for the take-off run and we seemed to be airborne and climbing very quickly too.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 10:44 am
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That timing would lend credence to the suggestion that QF's (formal) cancellation came after Airbus had applied pressure on QF to make up its mind: QF cancels remaining A380 order
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:00 am
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That's Emirates in trouble too then. They're effectively sitting on 100+ worthless aircraft that are killing them yield wise, not that there was much of a second market in the first place.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:02 am
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Presumably Airbus have taken the view that any future orders whilst cash generative (Iím presuming the A380 is washing its face on a marginal basis by this stage and positively contributing to historic costs?) would simply cannibalise more profitable A350 orders.

Shame it didnít prove as big a success as predicted. But itís not a huge jump to imagine that future changes in sustainability regulations could incentivise VLAs at a future point.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:08 am
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Originally Posted by BOH View Post

Sad day for aviation and Europe really
Yep. Might not be the most beautiful aeroplane in the skies but an absolute joy to fly on. The idea that the 777, which is a dog of an aircraft from a passenger perspective, was decided to be a better choice by so many airlines is sad in the extreme.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:11 am
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Originally Posted by 1010101 View Post
That's Emirates in trouble too then. They're effectively sitting on 100+ worthless aircraft that are killing them yield wise, not that there was much of a second market in the first place.
Do you by any chance have sources for that (yield-wise)?

The aircraft are owned by leasing companies, EK can just return them at the end of their leasing period, that is my understanding, unless you have some information to the contrary?
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:25 am
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Airbus cannot make money producing so few A380s; what is the current rate, 8 per year? Cutting off the supply of new frames to EK means they may need to extend leases and Airbus can sell spare parts at a profit!
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:27 am
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I reckon EK will still be flying the A380 in 20 years. There are still another 50 or so on order - assuming these haven't been converted to A350s as was rumoured.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:37 am
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Originally Posted by DYKWIA View Post
I reckon EK will still be flying the A380 in 20 years. There are still another 50 or so on order - assuming these haven't been converted to A350s as was rumoured.
That's the whole point, the discussions around EK not taking any more of them so Airbus will shut the line down.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:47 am
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Potential deal to be had for BA if EK decide to sell any in the future...
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Old Feb 12, 19, 11:55 am
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Originally Posted by BOH View Post
That's the whole point, the discussions around EK not taking any more of them so Airbus will shut the line down.
Really? There's nothing in that report that suggests this. Just that EK want to switch *some* orders to A350s.

Also, it says the production line will be closed down earlier than anticipated, not immediately.

I've no insider knowledge on this, but what you're stating doesn't seem to tally with that report.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 12:01 pm
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I think EK would be happy to not take any more A380s. The aircraft has worked well for them but times are changing and they're near their limit where they can sustain the number of frames they have. It's still working for them, but another 50 might be too many given their reduced growth rate.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 12:03 pm
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Clearly I have no insider information and clearly Iím just an aviation fan.

But......

on the face of it this just seems like 2+2=20

lets wait and see what happens.

cs
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Old Feb 12, 19, 12:12 pm
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Originally Posted by DYKWIA View Post
Really? There's nothing in that report that suggests this. Just that EK want to switch *some* orders to A350s.

Also, it says the production line will be closed down earlier than anticipated, not immediately.

I've no insider knowledge on this, but what you're stating doesn't seem to tally with that report.
Correct - nothing in the report but I have some limited insider knowledge (usually reliable) and the feeling is EK will take very few (if any) more once those currently in build / long-lead items already committed to are delivered. This may be about 8-10 of their outstanding number of 50+. The last top-up order some 18 months ago is not firm and binding anyway (not sure it ever was) because RR did not come good on some promised engine improvements.

To take those in build / long-lead components committed to is to be expected though - it is not as if Airbus could place those frames with another airline desperate to acquire some so the cancellation penalties would potentially be enormous making it pointless paying them and not also acquiring the frames.

Shame BA never took up any of the options for the A380
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Old Feb 12, 19, 12:29 pm
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While inevitable given the economics of the A380 vs 787/A350 i echo the comments of this outcome as rather sad. the A380 is my favorite aircraft in the BA fleet
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