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Probable A380 Program Termination This Week - No last minute BA Order

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Old Feb 13, 2019, 1:09 am
  #31  
 
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When airports around the world are reaching or exceeding capacity than the A380 is a logical choice... but logic has no place in business.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 1:46 am
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Jambon87
i can see why airlines aren’t keen on the aircraft though, when you need 20+ crew to man it, it can only fly certain routes, the sheer volume of Pax to deal with should it go tech.


With regards to the higher crew number, that is generally proportional to the number of extra pax carried though. The 380 capacity can be thought of as a 777 capacity on the lower deck and a 767 on the top. If you look at the cabin crew required for those two aircraft the combined total is more than an A380. Plus then you need 4 highly paid pilots to operate 2 aircraft whereas the A380 needs 2. Sometimes this is 3 on very long haul aircraft but that would be 6 for running 1x 777 and a 767 on the same route. So proportionally LESS crew
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 1:52 am
  #33  
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Originally Posted by BOH
With regards to the higher crew number, that is generally proportional to the number of extra pax carried though. The 380 capacity can be thought of as a 777 capacity on the lower deck and a 767 on the top. If you look at the cabin crew required for those two aircraft the combined total is more than an A380. Plus then you need 4 highly paid pilots to operate 2 aircraft whereas the A380 needs 2. Sometimes this is 3 on very long haul aircraft but that would be 6 for running 1x 777 and a 767 on the same route. So proportionally LESS crew
Crew is immaterial compared to the fuel cost that can be saved by the ability to "dial down" capacity in slack season.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 1:52 am
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
Totally agree. It is an ugly girl, truly and another advantage of being inside an A380 is that you don't have look at her bulging exterior. But my, she is superb to fly on, amazing power, near turbulence exempt and one arrives (almost) as fresh as a daisy. If there is one good aircraft for nervous flyers it is this one, so smooth. 777s, oh what a contrast. I had a LHR-MAD on the 777-300 a few days back and I was glad to get off. I have two EZE coming up in the next few weeks and I'm dreading it. Awful aircraft.
As someone that works under a LHR flight path, i see the A380s every once in a while and think that they are incredible to look at.. They pretty much take over the sky and i watch them till they are out of site. I think they are beautiful to watch when descending.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 1:59 am
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by BOH
With regards to the higher crew number, that is generally proportional to the number of extra pax carried though. The 380 capacity can be thought of as a 777 capacity on the lower deck and a 767 on the top. If you look at the cabin crew required for those two aircraft the combined total is more than an A380. Plus then you need 4 highly paid pilots to operate 2 aircraft whereas the A380 needs 2. Sometimes this is 3 on very long haul aircraft but that would be 6 for running 1x 777 and a 767 on the same route. So proportionally LESS crew
You would also need 2 x slot pairs for the 2 smaller aircraft, which are simply unavailable at some slot restricted airports.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:00 am
  #36  
 
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Originally Posted by Yachtman
When airports around the world are reaching or exceeding capacity than the A380 is a logical choice... but logic has no place in business.
What you have to factor in is a far great growth in the Point to Point market rather than the Hub and Spoke model. Just look at the airframes which are doing well (787) and you can see which way things are going.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:04 am
  #37  
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Originally Posted by percysmith
Crew is immaterial compared to the fuel cost that can be saved by the ability to "dial down" capacity in slack season.
Well of course. I was only addressing the point that airlines don't like them because they have a high number of crew @:-)

Flexibility is a strong reason why they have not sold so well as expected - but on a route of year round high yield (HKG for example) it is proportionally less to run a single A380 rather than 2 separate smaller aircraft to haul the same number of pax. I wasn't suggesting that an A380 is always going to be lower cost than 2x smaller aircraft.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:16 am
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by Yachtman
When airports around the world are reaching or exceeding capacity than the A380 is a logical choice... but logic has no place in business.
I seem to remember reading that the A380 is a minimum of 20 years ahead of when it's needed.
A380 SuperNeoPlusXL launched in 2050 then?
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:22 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Worcester
What you have to factor in is a far great growth in the Point to Point market rather than the Hub and Spoke model. Just look at the airframes which are doing well (787) and you can see which way things are going.
Interesting to note that some low frequency routes can quickly become too fat for B787 and larger aircraft have to be considered.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:24 am
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by Yachtman
When airports around the world are reaching or exceeding capacity
Are there really that many airports with serious slot restrictions with the new Istanbul in soft opening, new Beijing opening later this year, etc.? Many airports are over capacity in terms of passenger turnover, but replacing A380s with smaller planes doesn't help a lot in these cases.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:25 am
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Yachtman
When airports around the world are reaching or exceeding capacity than the A380 is a logical choice... but logic has no place in business.
A380s enable the poorer-off flyers who want to fly.

But airline revenue management doesn't see it as their business to facilitate that.
They rather capture the dozen business passengers who pay for everyone else in the back, and those passengers need frequency.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 2:30 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by skywardhunter
Do you by any chance have sources for that (yield-wise)?

The aircraft are owned by leasing companies, EK can just return them at the end of their leasing period, that is my understanding, unless you have some information to the contrary?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...its-own-future
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 3:00 am
  #43  
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Originally Posted by Temedar
Are there really that many airports with serious slot restrictions with the new Istanbul in soft opening, new Beijing opening later this year, etc.? Many airports are over capacity in terms of passenger turnover, but replacing A380s with smaller planes doesn't help a lot in these cases.
Not that many - but is interesting to note that air travel has almost tripled since 2000 when the A380 business case was put together but the same airport capacity has not tripled. Airbus bet that hub-to-hub would grow at the same rate and that would result in a very large number of airports being slot restricted by today. Their predicted answer would therefore be airlines forced to move many more pax per precious slot but this has not really happened. Yes the average size of aircraft at LHR has crept up but not by the same leap as the capacity increase an A380 offers over a 777 for example.

20 years later, the answer however has been more point-to-point (or point-to-hub) rather than congested hub to congested hub. Personally I think with the longer range single aisles starting to take-off (no pun intended) we may see this trend really accelerate now. Single aisle routes such as BRS-YYZ and NCL-ORD for example - yes I know the 757 has enabled this to some extent but those aircraft are at least 20 years old and at least two previous engine generations. The A32X NEO series aircraft take this to another level with fuel efficiency.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 3:12 am
  #44  
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Originally Posted by BOH
I have always wondered if EK was a blessing in disguise for the A380 - on the one hand they have taken >100 frames but would more total have been sold to the traditional big 744 operators mentioned above if EK had not decimated their traditional Europe to Middle East, Asia and Australia markets by siphoning everything through DXB. One can only wonder about this....
Anyone know if Airbus made their investment back on the 380? If not, then EK's heavy reliance on the aircraft and the resulting optimism at Airbus may have prevented Airbus from pulling the plug earlier, which might have saved them some money.
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Old Feb 13, 2019, 3:28 am
  #45  
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Originally Posted by SQTraveller
It will be a real shame when they stop flying.
There's no chance of the 380s ceasing to fly any time soon. Even if the Airbus announcement is what it's rumoured to be, it's only that Airbus will stop building new ones.
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