BA's upgrade "formula"
Nov 9, 2018, 11:23 am
#16
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Nov 9, 2018, 12:19 pm
#17
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Just for those who don't know, the Poisson process is particularly helpful for airline revenue management as it allows you to model a so-called "arrivals process". The idea is that passengers make bookings/buy tickets in a way that over a large number of reservations is predictable. Hence you can model the proportion of passengers who are likely to "arrive" between the time now and the time of the flight, allowing you to understand how much of the so-called "demand to come" is left out there in the market, and you can then figure out how many seats to block for higher fare payers later vs. releasing for lower fare payers now.
Hope that makes sense!
Next time - explaining airline pricing using beer bottles (really!)...
Hope that makes sense!
Next time - explaining airline pricing using beer bottles (really!)...
Nov 9, 2018, 1:57 pm
#18
Join Date: Jul 2014
Programs: Mucci de l'Arbitrage
Posts: 927
So, as a couple of Golds who always pay to fly CW (and indeed CE) why are we never given a free taste of First, or even FLub? Don’t they want to try and squeeze even more cash from our pockets? Or do they think I won’t live long enough to make it worth bothering? 
Or do we have a record of flying AA too often?
Or do we have a record of flying AA too often?
Nov 10, 2018, 6:12 am
#19
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: US/UK - and elsewhere
Programs: BA Gold
Posts: 2,555
Just for those who don't know, the Poisson process is particularly helpful for airline revenue management as it allows you to model a so-called "arrivals process". The idea is that passengers make bookings/buy tickets in a way that over a large number of reservations is predictable. Hence you can model the proportion of passengers who are likely to "arrive" between the time now and the time of the flight, allowing you to understand how much of the so-called "demand to come" is left out there in the market, and you can then figure out how many seats to block for higher fare payers later vs. releasing for lower fare payers now.
Hope that makes sense!
Next time - explaining airline pricing using beer bottles (really!)...
Hope that makes sense!
Next time - explaining airline pricing using beer bottles (really!)...
Just an example, an (outbound) upgrade (for one) from WT to WT+ TATL came in at over $21,000, but was recently reduced to a mere $9,983 - a bargin!
Nov 10, 2018, 11:19 am
#20
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Argentina
Posts: 40,210
The wife and I have been upgraded from WT+ to CW on two occasions. GRU-LHR and LHR/YVR a week or two later. No idea about loads as I didn't go aft to see. Impossible to do but if it were down to me I'd only upgrade those who have never flown CW before.
Nov 10, 2018, 12:38 pm
#22
Suspended
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Nov 10, 2018, 12:45 pm
#24
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why do you think you have been upgraded?
Have you made an enquiry about the cost of an upgrade as sometimes that causes ghost seats to appear in MMB even though you didn't go through with it.
Have you made an enquiry about the cost of an upgrade as sometimes that causes ghost seats to appear in MMB even though you didn't go through with it.
Nov 10, 2018, 1:52 pm
#26
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MMB - Manage My Bookings
It would be surprising for BA to give someone a free upgrade this far in advance of the flight taking place. If they do it us usually a couple of days before or more usually on the day the flight. Which is why I think it is a 'ghost seat' and you'll still be in economy
See this recent post for example which also has some advice about checking MMB in the app or website - Flight upgrade
It would be surprising for BA to give someone a free upgrade this far in advance of the flight taking place. If they do it us usually a couple of days before or more usually on the day the flight. Which is why I think it is a 'ghost seat' and you'll still be in economy
See this recent post for example which also has some advice about checking MMB in the app or website - Flight upgrade
Nov 11, 2018, 11:14 am
#28
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Nov 11, 2018, 2:26 pm
#30
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: UK
Programs: BA Gold, AA 1MM lifetime gold, Starwood gold, Marriott Gold Elite
Posts: 719
I'm pretty sure lap infants remove you from the list. When our youngest was below 2 and was a lap infant, we have been on overbooked flights in WTP where others have gone from WT to CW and we have remained in WTP, despite all 3 seated passengers being gold (2 adults and 1 child). I would recommend splitting the party with a lap infant as I subjectively feel that your chances of getting the passengers not linked to the lap infant upgraded will be higher, however slim that may be.