BA's move from Ataturk to the new Istanbul airport
Sep 21, 2018, 12:42 am
#31
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The likelihood of the new airport fully opening and operating at the end of October is practically ZERO, it will open, there will be a few flights there and that will be it. Part of the reason for this is that there are no suitable transport links available. As mentioned above, the bus tender has been cancelled. The train will not be ready for at least another two years, The authorities have strangely made an agreement with the current Taxi cooperative to operate only 660 taxis from the new airport, and not allowing non-airport taxis to make pickups, which disastrously will mean that no city taxi will want to make a trip out to the airport, which is way out of town and with nothing around it, as no taxi driver would want to go that distance and be forced to return empty, and lose much of his shift (currently at IST outside taxis are not supposed to make pick-ups, but this is often ignored when there are few airport taxis allowed) in any case currently a taxi driver has plenty of places to go to get business near the current airport. There is nothing for many kilometers around the new airport. In addition to all this, there has been a crackdown on ride sharing services, so that Careem seems to be dead and Uber has been under extreme pressure.
When you add all this to the fact that AFAIK the first landing test on runway two was only about 48 hours ago, and that no international body has yet approve anything at the new airport, not to mention that is has already been announced quite publicly that Cargo operations will not be ready at the new airport for at least a further six months, not to mention that TK cannot afford to get into a BKK situation (and privately TK has been advocating for more than a year to be allowed to move into the airport last), it just ain't happening. BUT, if there is a limited soft opening, with a few "non-connecting" flights, BA may in fact be forced into the "soft" operating airport...............
As for transport to the current airport, out of the literally thousands of times I have frequented the airport, I think I have used public transport maybe twice. The issue is not the quality, Istanbul trains etc are fine, the issue is where one has to go. Public transport in IST has traditionally been limited, and if it goes where you need then great, but often does not go everywhere (although its growing fast) and often requires multiple modes (i.e. a Train to a bus to a ferry to a Dolmus to a Taxi or whatever).
When you add all this to the fact that AFAIK the first landing test on runway two was only about 48 hours ago, and that no international body has yet approve anything at the new airport, not to mention that is has already been announced quite publicly that Cargo operations will not be ready at the new airport for at least a further six months, not to mention that TK cannot afford to get into a BKK situation (and privately TK has been advocating for more than a year to be allowed to move into the airport last), it just ain't happening. BUT, if there is a limited soft opening, with a few "non-connecting" flights, BA may in fact be forced into the "soft" operating airport...............
As for transport to the current airport, out of the literally thousands of times I have frequented the airport, I think I have used public transport maybe twice. The issue is not the quality, Istanbul trains etc are fine, the issue is where one has to go. Public transport in IST has traditionally been limited, and if it goes where you need then great, but often does not go everywhere (although its growing fast) and often requires multiple modes (i.e. a Train to a bus to a ferry to a Dolmus to a Taxi or whatever).
Sep 21, 2018, 12:58 am
#32
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Sep 21, 2018, 1:11 am
#33
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The likelihood of the new airport fully opening and operating at the end of October is practically ZERO, it will open, there will be a few flights there and that will be it. Part of the reason for this is that there are no suitable transport links available. As mentioned above, the bus tender has been cancelled. The train will not be ready for at least another two years, The authorities have strangely made an agreement with the current Taxi cooperative to operate only 660 taxis from the new airport, and not allowing non-airport taxis to make pickups, which disastrously will mean that no city taxi will want to make a trip out to the airport, which is way out of town and with nothing around it, as no taxi driver would want to go that distance and be forced to return empty, and lose much of his shift (currently at IST outside taxis are not supposed to make pick-ups, but this is often ignored when there are few airport taxis allowed) in any case currently a taxi driver has plenty of places to go to get business near the current airport. There is nothing for many kilometers around the new airport. In addition to all this, there has been a crackdown on ride sharing services, so that Careem seems to be dead and Uber has been under extreme pressure.
When you add all this to the fact that AFAIK the first landing test on runway two was only about 48 hours ago, and that no international body has yet approve anything at the new airport, not to mention that is has already been announced quite publicly that Cargo operations will not be ready at the new airport for at least a further six months, not to mention that TK cannot afford to get into a BKK situation (and privately TK has been advocating for more than a year to be allowed to move into the airport last), it just ain't happening. BUT, if there is a limited soft opening, with a few "non-connecting" flights, BA may in fact be forced into the "soft" operating airport...............
As for transport to the current airport, out of the literally thousands of times I have frequented the airport, I think I have used public transport maybe twice. The issue is not the quality, Istanbul trains etc are fine, the issue is where one has to go. Public transport in IST has traditionally been limited, and if it goes where you need then great, but often does not go everywhere (although its growing fast) and often requires multiple modes (i.e. a Train to a bus to a ferry to a Dolmus to a Taxi or whatever).
When you add all this to the fact that AFAIK the first landing test on runway two was only about 48 hours ago, and that no international body has yet approve anything at the new airport, not to mention that is has already been announced quite publicly that Cargo operations will not be ready at the new airport for at least a further six months, not to mention that TK cannot afford to get into a BKK situation (and privately TK has been advocating for more than a year to be allowed to move into the airport last), it just ain't happening. BUT, if there is a limited soft opening, with a few "non-connecting" flights, BA may in fact be forced into the "soft" operating airport...............
As for transport to the current airport, out of the literally thousands of times I have frequented the airport, I think I have used public transport maybe twice. The issue is not the quality, Istanbul trains etc are fine, the issue is where one has to go. Public transport in IST has traditionally been limited, and if it goes where you need then great, but often does not go everywhere (although its growing fast) and often requires multiple modes (i.e. a Train to a bus to a ferry to a Dolmus to a Taxi or whatever).
. What you say makes complete sense although I had no idea that matters were so in arrears. The way the blurb reads, you’d think that the Tram was already there.
Sep 21, 2018, 1:24 am
#34
Ambassador: Emirates Airlines
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 18,600
I think you are overthinking this. The first flight at the airport was actually months ago, and if there is a need, the bus thing will happen. Turkey is good at finding last minute solutions, they are very hard workers. The airport was never planned to open fully, the cargo flights are not a priority, the passenger flights are. The move will happen on time with a terminal and 2 runways, one way or another. Failure is not an option!
Sep 21, 2018, 1:34 am
#35
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I think you are overthinking this. The first flight at the airport was actually months ago, and if there is a need, the bus thing will happen. Turkey is good at finding last minute solutions, they are very hard workers. The airport was never planned to open fully, the cargo flights are not a priority, the passenger flights are. The move will happen on time with a terminal and 2 runways, one way or another. Failure is not an option!
The individual systems need to be checked then the systems in combination need to be tested to ensure that there are no failure points. For this it is not just the airport company or the Turkish government that sign these off but the individual suppliers from international companies which will not accept the reputations risk and potential liquidation of their company if they prematurely sign off the systems to meet a political deadline. Maybe someone can confirm if there will also be the signoffs from overseas regulatory authorities required (falls outside my area of expertise).
You will find that there is political pressure on infrastructure projects around the world, the projects with the best end results are those where the management team are open about the issues and if required delay completion until the project is fit for purpose rather than forcing premature opening/completion announcements where everyone ones that they are trying to save face.
Sep 21, 2018, 10:03 am
#36
FlyerTalk Evangelist
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For those not following the mega thread on the TK forum. The CEO of the IGA consortium was fired several months ago because supposedly in a board meeting he stated the obvious that there was no way possible that the airport could be open on that date in any meaningful way, supposedly it even got physical. In fact over the last 2-3 weeks the hyperbole about it being the "biggest move in history" has been toned down greatly and much like Ahmet above, what has been stressed is that it will be "open" but not that any meaningful amount of flights will be going in and out for six months or a year.
As far as the "first flight" a couple of months ago, are you referring to the A320, which was swapped at the last minute from an A330 because none of the instrumentation needed for an A330 landing was in place and the A320 was able to make a visual landing? The one that was on the first runway, because the second one was not yet finished? And which in any case was about 4 months behind the original scheduled and published timeline of February 14th? That one, right?
As far as what is said about Cargo above, they cannot just 2-3 days ago brag that TK is one of the World's five largest cargo carriers and then go and decimate their entire cargo operation. The operation is NOT centered around solely their 14 cargo aircraft, but rather the transshipment of cargo between their other 300 or so aircraft AND their cargo aircraft, having the cargo fleet based 60 km and up to a 2 hour drive away, plus the relevant security checks, etc, does NOT lend itself to a functional cargo operation in any way shape or form, and all that business that TK has taken off of LH, AF, EK and others over the last decade can evaporate overnight if they get it wrong. TK knows this very well and is one of the reasons that internally all management at TK has pushed to be the last into the new airport.
Diver Boy, none of the relevant international authorities have signed off on anything yet, nor in fact even made formal inspections, FAA, CAA, none of the Europeans, TSA, etc. Rumor has it that there was a FAA/TSA scheduled meeting in mid-August that was delayed at the height of the US/Turkey issues of August. Who knows how true they are. But just the North American flights and their connections account for over 10% of TK's traffic and supposedly over 20% of their revenues.
There will be an opening at the end of October, there will be a few flights in and out, if nothing else so the BOT consortium can start to be paid, and BA might be forced to be one of the first in there, but that is about it.
As far as the "first flight" a couple of months ago, are you referring to the A320, which was swapped at the last minute from an A330 because none of the instrumentation needed for an A330 landing was in place and the A320 was able to make a visual landing? The one that was on the first runway, because the second one was not yet finished? And which in any case was about 4 months behind the original scheduled and published timeline of February 14th? That one, right?
As far as what is said about Cargo above, they cannot just 2-3 days ago brag that TK is one of the World's five largest cargo carriers and then go and decimate their entire cargo operation. The operation is NOT centered around solely their 14 cargo aircraft, but rather the transshipment of cargo between their other 300 or so aircraft AND their cargo aircraft, having the cargo fleet based 60 km and up to a 2 hour drive away, plus the relevant security checks, etc, does NOT lend itself to a functional cargo operation in any way shape or form, and all that business that TK has taken off of LH, AF, EK and others over the last decade can evaporate overnight if they get it wrong. TK knows this very well and is one of the reasons that internally all management at TK has pushed to be the last into the new airport.
Diver Boy, none of the relevant international authorities have signed off on anything yet, nor in fact even made formal inspections, FAA, CAA, none of the Europeans, TSA, etc. Rumor has it that there was a FAA/TSA scheduled meeting in mid-August that was delayed at the height of the US/Turkey issues of August. Who knows how true they are. But just the North American flights and their connections account for over 10% of TK's traffic and supposedly over 20% of their revenues.
There will be an opening at the end of October, there will be a few flights in and out, if nothing else so the BOT consortium can start to be paid, and BA might be forced to be one of the first in there, but that is about it.
Sep 21, 2018, 6:38 pm
#37
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It seems an enormous act of faith that the new airport will be open for regular use by any carrier within five weeks or so, But should BA be one of the early guinea pigs, I imagine the ride into the city will be a long and expensive taxi journey. No idea why the bus contract was cancelled, though it's likely the winning bid was not high enough to satisfy those who need to be satisfied, or the "wrong" company made that winning bid.
Sep 22, 2018, 1:10 am
#38
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The metro at the current airport was built as much to move employees in and out of the airport as moving passengers. It costs close to nothing these days, the issue as you rightly point out, is that it is fine if it goes where you want to go, but really inconvenient if you have to go "intermodal" especially if you have bags.
Sep 22, 2018, 5:29 am
#39
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Sep 22, 2018, 8:07 pm
#41
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...The first flight at the airport was actually months ago, and if there is a need, the bus thing will happen. Turkey is good at finding last minute solutions, they are very hard workers. The airport was never planned to open fully, the cargo flights are not a priority, the passenger flights are. The move will happen on time with a terminal and 2 runways, one way or another. Failure is not an option!
I
Sep 23, 2018, 12:18 am
#42
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Sep 24, 2018, 12:03 am
#43
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Sep 24, 2018, 6:16 am
#44
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Seems clear that the new airport will not be fully ready on time, but equally it is important for Turkey's leadership that it becomes a success as soon as possible. Getting the non-local and smaller airlines to switch first would be a sensible way to break the new facility in.