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Easter snow and ex-ARN...

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Old Mar 20, 2018, 5:37 am
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Easter snow and ex-ARN...

So its got past the second major snowstorm of the winter/spring and the snowfearbrexitgood papers are talking up a predicted snowstorm over Easter potentially starting on good Friday.

I've got an ex ARN booked on Easter Sunday to Auckland about 18:00, flying over late Saturday BA from LHR to connect.

I'd usually ignore the snowfear, but they've been right the last two. I also realise that snow doesn't always mean snow in the South East, though the system has been affecting there. I expect Stockholm to deal with snow better than us.

I've got Platinum amex business card (I believe their insurance covers trips not paid with card, unlike the personal), and booked it on the BA Amex. But not sure if snow delays on positioning would be paying out...

I know there's two flights from LHR on Sunday which might just make it (later one probably too close), so there are planes to rebook on. But I always assumed all cancelled on snow delays and backlog has built up for such days.

It might be unduly worrying too far in advance, but just wondering how scr*w*d I could be in the nightmare ex-EU options...
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 5:59 am
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Since your outbound flight to ARN is on BA, I'd say you have a relatively good chance of BA helping you in this kind of situation. I was talking to a guy in the lounge who had a similar situation during the "beast from the east" -- BA actually allowed him to start his ex-EU trip from London, because they had cancelled both his outbound to the EU destination and his inbound back to connect to long-haul. Of course there are no guarantees and you should have travel insurance, but I'd say your chances are much better than e.g. if you had a flight on another airline out to the EU destination...
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 6:02 am
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Originally Posted by mid
So its got past the second major snowstorm of the winter/spring and the snowfearbrexitgood papers are talking up a predicted snowstorm over Easter potentially starting on good Friday.
This is more than ten days away tho?! Surely any confidence in this forecast being correct would be extremely low, to say the least.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 6:25 am
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Originally Posted by SimonsMiles
Since your outbound flight to ARN is on BA, I'd say you have a relatively good chance of BA helping you in this kind of situation. I was talking to a guy in the lounge who had a similar situation during the "beast from the east" -- BA actually allowed him to start his ex-EU trip from London, because they had cancelled both his outbound to the EU destination and his inbound back to connect to long-haul. Of course there are no guarantees and you should have travel insurance, but I'd say your chances are much better than e.g. if you had a flight on another airline out to the EU destination...
Sadly QR so no chance of the old switcheroo, if you will...

I will perhaps look at Manchester to Stockholm in case it hits LHR but not MAN. Plan C if you will...
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 6:45 am
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Originally Posted by ScruttonStreet
This is more than ten days away tho?! Surely any confidence in this forecast being correct would be extremely low, to say the least.
Sadly snowfear in recent months has been 100% accurate. Luck, perhaps, but it has been an unusual winter/spring...
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 6:56 am
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Well I must admit I think this may be overthinking it given the timeframe, there again I may ending up eating my words. But as a theoretical exercise, here are some semi-plausible scenarios, apart, of course, from "nothing happens".

1) Flight gets cancelled on Saturday, you find out on Friday night: so would you be able to get an alternative service to ARN in time? Any cheap LCC alternatives from airports more resistant to poor weather than LHR, or perhaps to other places in Sweden? Maybe don't book until nearer the time but watch the fares?

2) Flight gets cancelled after you get to the airport: probably you'd be rebooked on Lufthansa or KLM or something. I would just look up plausible options there.

3) Book RFS on Sunday earlier service and perhaps cancel at T-25 hours when the forecast is better?

4) Guidelines are issued on Friday: be prepared to travel on an earlier service.

5) The Doris Day approach. Probably where I am to be honest.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 7:11 am
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Albeit a few weeks later, but I have a QR flight out of ARN shortly as well. Now that's highly unlikely to be affected by snow, but I'm not terribly worried even if something else goes wrong - I have a nominal 8 hours between flights at the moment, during which period there are something like 11 BA/SK/LH/KL flights which depart LHR which would still allow me to make the connection with a degree of comfort.

SK very rarely cancels on the LHR-ARN route, and if all you're looking for is a seat without being concerned about cabin, then I'd be astonished if you can't get on one of their services.

I'd be with c-w-s on the Doris Day approach to things, knowing that if it really went pear-shaped on the day there would still be an excellent chance of recovery, even if potentially you'd have to splash a bit of cash.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 7:17 am
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I am old enough to remember Doris Day but in this context, er, what?

Some weather websites are far more positive about Easter. Look at the BBC, for instance.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 7:19 am
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Originally Posted by Ancient Observer
I am old enough to remember Doris Day but in this context, er, what?
You're clearly not a football fan . Her very famous modified hit, heard throughout the country during cup matches (and increasingly many other competitions now. It must be a staple for Spurs fans): Que Sera Sera.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 7:23 am
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Thanks.
I thought the only song known to Spurs fans was "61, never again, 61, never again, 61, never again, 61, never again,"etc.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 7:50 am
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Thanks for the answers. I might consider a RFS closer to the time as the weather becomes clearer and given Good Friday is a day off for us, we can try for earlier flights and overnight stays. If major chance of cancels then there will be costs money to cover such things... And LHR-ARN on SAS being rarely cancelled is a great bit of information...
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 8:03 am
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Smid
I might consider a RFS closer to the time as the weather becomes clearer ...
If you are considering using this as a backup plan, wouldn't you be better off booking this now while you still can? Otherwise, Murphy will decree that by the time you think you really need one, there will be no more award availability and you will then be looking at £££££ to buy a cash ticket.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 9:01 am
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Risk management includes setting trigger conditions for invoking contingencies. Usually when the probability of an outcome increases, or the availability of a mitigation is compromised.

For me it it would be too early but I'd be monitoring availability of seats for example, and checking weather forecasts.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 10:18 am
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Originally Posted by NWIFlyer
Albeit a few weeks later, but I have a QR flight out of ARN shortly as well.
FT BA Mods flying QR - whatever next? In the not so distant past the very mention of QR on this forum was enough to get you hung, drawn and quartered - how times have changed.

Take the piss out of Tottenham Hotspur and their fans if you must, but as a supporter of 50+ years standing I’d rather support a team that doesn't simply buy success, as opposed to the ‘money no object’ Citys, Uniteds and Chelskis of this world. Look at the wage bills and net transfer spend of the big six - now the big five (sorry, Arsenal ) - and you’ll see what I mean.
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Old Mar 20, 2018, 10:29 am
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Here’s what the Met Office say:-
‘The Easter weekend is still too far away to be confident with any details. The most likely scenario currently is a spell of colder than average weather, with increased likelihood of overnight frosts, and a greater than normal chance of snow, especially in the north.’

I wouldn’t be panicking yet on the basis of that. My OTP-PHX commences with positioningnin 5th april so I’m just as invested in the weather for early April as you are!
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