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Contingency planning at the start of a TP run to PRG

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Contingency planning at the start of a TP run to PRG

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Old Feb 2, 2018, 4:34 pm
  #1  
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Contingency planning at the start of a TP run to PRG

I have a fairly big ex Prague run starting towards the end of Feb, and looking at a bit of contingency planning. This was originally planned to start with a ET HBO fare from LHR to PRG for positioning, but having done a POUG to CE it's now in 'U' fare class.

There's a risk that because this is a 10.30 am flight and I'm travelling from the Gatwick area on the National Express coach, trouble on the M25 might create a bit of squeaky bum time. If all goes to plan I get to T3 by 8am which is loads of time - it's the earliest I can get there because of trains to Gatwick.

However I have all day to get to PRG if things go awry, and there are plenty of options. I just need a bit of advice on a couple of scenarios:

1) Am I correct in thinking the 'U' class tickets won't work for same day changes? That's what MMB says and I have no reason not to believe it.
2) Is the "flat tyre" rule likely to work if there's a traffic delay?
3) What is the likelihood of availability of RFS the day of the flight if I needed it? I could book one today for Ł17.50 + 4000 avios but it seems a bit wasteful if the flat tyre rule applies or there is something available on the day
4) If I fly out by an alternate method, will BA be persuadable to maintain my return leg?

Thanks.
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Old Feb 2, 2018, 10:23 pm
  #2  
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1) POUG certainly changes the ticket rules, so even if you had originally been booked in a Plus fare that might not necessarily apply now. If MMB says no changes, it’s almost certainly accurate.

2) You’ve probably answered your own question in the first paragraph - the clause in the T&Cs is 3c4, which requires events to be “beyond your control”. You recognise the risk of traffic delays meaning you miss your flight - so you have the opportunity to leave earlier by other means to mitigate these, or stay in a LHR hotel the night before (which, if it’s that important, is what I’d be doing ...). BA might be understanding, they might play hardball, they might propose a compromise of a Ł60 change fee - it’s wholly unpredictable.

3) I guess you might get a clue by looking at bookings on the day for a few days to get a feel for the route. If they’re scarce then it sounds like you’d value the insurance.

4) See the last sentence of 2) . It’s really anyone’s guess and much depends on how the agent interprets the situation. I’d personally, and it’s a gut feeling, be somewhat less confident about this happening though.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 2:50 am
  #3  
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
There's a risk that because this is a 10.30 am flight and I'm travelling from the Gatwick area on the National Express coach, trouble on the M25 might create a bit of squeaky bum time. If all goes to plan I get to T3 by 8am which is loads of time - it's the earliest I can get there because of trains to Gatwick.
I'm still only on my first coffee, so I really shouldn't be posting on Flyertalk, but the "trains to Gatwick" and "National Express from Gatwick" isn't squaring neatly in the CWS brain. Time for more coffee I guess. Maybe you're taking a train to GTW and a coach from LGW to LHR. However if you are HBO and have a choice / time, I would personally suggest Southern and tube over National Express at that hour. There is a small risk in that LGW to East Croydon is a choke point, but once past East Croydon you are pretty much guaranteed to make the trip in 90 minutes or so, fractionally less on HEX. The National Express will normally win the race, but there is a more consistent, timed set of services on the train.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 3:08 am
  #4  
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I live 200 yards from a station a few miles south of Gatwick - I pick up the National Express at the airport. First train gets to Gatwick at about 6am, and National Express is usually the best option for cost and timing when I'm paying myself. The train services are if anything less reliable than the coach, one signal failure and you're stuffed and there are fairly frequent cancellations. Train is a contingency if there's a delay on the M25 that's known when I get on the train to Gatwick.

The more likely scenario though is that there's a delay that develops en route and I arrive late at Heathrow. That's not all that likely, and there are plenty of ways of getting to Prague in time that day, so the main thing I want to understand is what the BA view will be on the "flat tyre" scenario and not cancelling the return leg. I can arrange a RFS return as cover, but loathe to if unnecessary.

Yes, it's HBO.

In retrospect I probably should have taken a later outbound flight - I'm not sure what went through my mind when booking a 10.30 flight, probably that if it failed for some reason I'd have the whole day to sort something out.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 3:13 am
  #5  
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
I live 200 yards from a station a few miles south of Gatwick - I pick up the National Express at the airport. First train gets to Gatwick at about 6am, and National Express is usually the best option for cost and timing when I'm paying myself. The train services are if anything less reliable than the coach, one signal failure and you're stuffed and there are fairly frequent cancellations. Train is a contingency if there's a delay on the M25 that's known when I get on the train to Gatwick.
OK, that's is clearer to me now, thanks. In which case, given the Ł25 or so NEx fare, one option is to spend the night before at any location north of East Croydon up to LHR itself. For a Ł50 hotel fee you'd get a great deal more comfortable and assured route to LHR. The multiple breakfast options in T3 mean that you can get a Hampton or HI Express or HGI for around that price, and cheaper than the RFS options. Or use points..
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 5:58 am
  #6  
 
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I agree with CWS - if you’re at all worried about it (which I assume you are, given the post here) then I would recommend staying at LHR the night before. A 10pm bus to LHR would be my preference over an early start the next day. But if you’re not worried, your plan sounds reasonable - just don’t rely on BA’s (seemingly more generous at present) goodwill if it goes awry.

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Old Feb 3, 2018, 6:48 am
  #7  
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Thanks. It's not really a question of worrying, just preparedness, there are plenty of options. I've opted against the overnight hotel, it's not really worth the cost, though I'd already booked a Premier Inn for another flight in the sequence at LHR before another 10.15 flight where it didn't seem worth going home overnight.

For what it's worth, the plan will be to go to Gatwick on the train from home, then check traffic. I have the option of National Express (already booked) or to head to Blackfriars or Victoria on the train. Very unlikely both routes will fail, if they do or if there's M25 shenanigans after I'm on the coach I'll see if I can invoke the flat tyre rule, in extremis there are EasyJet flights from Gatwick.

I'm interested to know though what sorts of same day availability there is for RFS - I've really done it. But I can go and have a look at that on the BA site myself.

For interest's sake, the overall itinerary is as below - actually two runs but with one flow. 4 tickets in total.

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Old Feb 3, 2018, 7:07 am
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
Thanks. It's not really a question of worrying, just preparedness, there are plenty of options. I've opted against the overnight hotel, it's not really worth the cost, though I'd already booked a Premier Inn for another flight in the sequence at LHR before another 10.15 flight where it didn't seem worth going home overnight.

For what it's worth, the plan will be to go to Gatwick on the train from home, then check traffic. I have the option of National Express (already booked) or to head to Blackfriars or Victoria on the train. Very unlikely both routes will fail, if they do or if there's M25 shenanigans after I'm on the coach I'll see if I can invoke the flat tyre rule, in extremis there are EasyJet flights from Gatwick.

I'm interested to know though what sorts of same day availability there is for RFS - I've really done it. But I can go and have a look at that on the BA site myself.

For interest's sake, the overall itinerary is as below - actually two runs but with one flow. 4 tickets in total.
I’d suggest looking at availability on the relevant day each week until departure. Could also buy a cheap LCC back-up if required, I’ve thrown away a Ł30 Norwegian ticket before but thought it was a reasonable insurance policy for my situation.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 7:57 am
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Originally Posted by bisonrav

Lordy
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 4:06 pm
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
Thanks. It's not really a question of worrying, just preparedness, there are plenty of options. I've opted against the overnight hotel, it's not really worth the cost, though I'd already booked a Premier Inn for another flight in the sequence at LHR before another 10.15 flight where it didn't seem worth going home overnight.

For what it's worth, the plan will be to go to Gatwick on the train from home, then check traffic. I have the option of National Express (already booked) or to head to Blackfriars or Victoria on the train. Very unlikely both routes will fail, if they do or if there's M25 shenanigans after I'm on the coach I'll see if I can invoke the flat tyre rule, in extremis there are EasyJet flights from Gatwick.

I'm interested to know though what sorts of same day availability there is for RFS - I've really done it. But I can go and have a look at that on the BA site myself.

For interest's sake, the overall itinerary is as below - actually two runs but with one flow. 4 tickets in total.

Wow.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 4:37 pm
  #11  
 
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Originally Posted by bisonrav
Thanks. It's not really a question of worrying, just preparedness, there are plenty of options. I've opted against the overnight hotel, it's not really worth the cost, though I'd already booked a Premier Inn for another flight in the sequence at LHR before another 10.15 flight where it didn't seem worth going home overnight.

For what it's worth, the plan will be to go to Gatwick on the train from home, then check traffic. I have the option of National Express (already booked) or to head to Blackfriars or Victoria on the train. Very unlikely both routes will fail, if they do or if there's M25 shenanigans after I'm on the coach I'll see if I can invoke the flat tyre rule, in extremis there are EasyJet flights from Gatwick.

I'm interested to know though what sorts of same day availability there is for RFS - I've really done it. But I can go and have a look at that on the BA site myself.

For interest's sake, the overall itinerary is as below - actually two runs but with one flow. 4 tickets in total.

This is a routing that you've booked over 4 separate tickets? Goodness, you don't have much contingency built into the schedule between the two intercontinental sections. If I were you, I'd be looking into whether there are direct flights available between Prague and Helsinki on Feb 27th not worrying about the traffic on the M25!
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 5:13 pm
  #12  
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Originally Posted by crazyanglaisy
This is a routing that you've booked over 4 separate tickets? Goodness, you don't have much contingency built into the schedule between the two intercontinental sections. If I were you, I'd be looking into whether there are direct flights available between Prague and Helsinki on Feb 27th not worrying about the traffic on the M25!
That's not particularly risky in fact. I get into HEL near the end of the PRG->US->PRG run. If there's some sort of cataclysmic weather event on the cards, then I can wait there. If the PRG->LHR gets delayed such that I risk missing the LHR->HEL I can stay in PRG and essentially have two days to get back to HEL, probably on Norwegian. If there's a problem with LHR->HEL there are options available the next day before the HEL->DOH. Short of European airspace being shut down completely, it's difficult to come up with scenarios that aren't manageable. The point of most risk is PRG->LHR->HEL obviously. Obviously I've considered this and I'm comfortable with the risk, the reason for asking about the M25 issues was to understand the options I had to mitigate a reasonably high probability risk of traffic trouble on the M25 (the option I was considering was an RFS one way later in the day which is actually cheaper than train on the day or a hotel the day before).

You can never deal with everything, and obviously if this falls apart I've made myself a hostage to fortune Such is life.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 5:27 pm
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The whole trip looks like a very exciting run.

Will you be doing a trip report - live, or other? Be v interested to hear it all unfold.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 5:44 pm
  #14  
 
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An option often overlooked between LGW and LHR yet rather simple is...

LGW - Clapham Junction (Southern Rail - shortest; 24mins), then catch a Clapham Junction to Feltham Service (South West rail; 18mins). Feltham is a couple of miles south of Heathrow; depending on time there's a direst local London bus route from the station or taxi. My record is under an under.
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Old Feb 3, 2018, 6:06 pm
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Holy cow, that’s one heck of an itinerary. Pretty much 10 days solid flying. You sure It’s worth it?!
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