Chance of getting OPUP?
Jan 11, 2018, 12:51 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: LHR & JER
Programs: BAEC Gold, Hilton Gold
Posts: 253
Chance of getting OPUP?
Hi all,
I'm on the BA119 LHR>BLR next Friday 19th Jan. I'm currently booked into WT+ and the flight availability is currently showing as [J8,C5,D3,R1,I0,W0,E0,T0] on EF, Y is currently wide open in all buckets. Looking at that do I have a half decent chance of being bumped in J as a BA Gold travelling on my own? I'm also currently being offered a POUG for £450, but I don't need to travel in J and probably on this trip it's not worth it for me.
Before anyone suggests that you should only expect the cabin you pay for, I'm not relying on an upgrade, but it would be nice on a 9hr30m overnight flight.
Thanks.
I'm on the BA119 LHR>BLR next Friday 19th Jan. I'm currently booked into WT+ and the flight availability is currently showing as [J8,C5,D3,R1,I0,W0,E0,T0] on EF, Y is currently wide open in all buckets. Looking at that do I have a half decent chance of being bumped in J as a BA Gold travelling on my own? I'm also currently being offered a POUG for £450, but I don't need to travel in J and probably on this trip it's not worth it for me.
Before anyone suggests that you should only expect the cabin you pay for, I'm not relying on an upgrade, but it would be nice on a 9hr30m overnight flight.
Thanks.
Jan 11, 2018, 1:09 pm
#3
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Feb 2010
Programs: BA Lifetime Gold; Flying Blue Life Platinum; LH Sen.; Hilton Diamond; Kemal Kebabs Prized Customer
Posts: 63,803
It's always important to consider the whole aircraft in these scenarios (which of course you not be overthought....) since one key determinant is how will BA get everyone on board. So the most important piece of data is missing: how is it looking in World Traveller. But still, I wouldn't be paying for a POUG in this scenario, unless the TPs would also be helpful.
Jan 11, 2018, 1:33 pm
#4
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: uk
Programs: Accor Silver, HHonours Silver, Carlson Gold, BA Blue
Posts: 290
Slightly OT, but a question that has puzzled me with WTP upgrades. Let's say most WTP cabins are 24 Seats, if economy is oversold by 24 does that mean that all WTP passengers will be upgraded to J? Or is there some other wizardry to take into account?
Jan 11, 2018, 1:38 pm
#5
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Gloucestershire
Programs: BA Gold (ex-GGL, maybe future Silver), Hilton Diamond
Posts: 6,198
Only been in that scenario once. The magic beep was almost constant at boarding. Assume that those who didn’t upgrade proof themselves (infants, special meals) would go forward more or less universally.
Jan 11, 2018, 1:38 pm
#6
Join Date: May 2013
Location: YYZ/YTZ/YUL
Programs: BA Gold, TK Elite
Posts: 1,558
The whole idea of overbooking is that you try to estimate how many passengers you will "lose".
Jan 11, 2018, 1:40 pm
#7
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Netherlands
Programs: KL Platinum; A3 Gold
Posts: 28,729
No airline would ever oversell Economy by 24 or more. And the chances that EVERYONE shows up is almost zero.
Jan 11, 2018, 1:43 pm
#8
FlyerTalk Evangelist, Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Somewhere between 0 and 13,000 metres high
Programs: AF/KL Life Plat, BA GGL+GfL, ALL Plat, Hilton Diam, Marriott Gold, blablablah, etc
Posts: 30,526
The OP is actually mentioning that "Y is currently wide open in all buckets". I agree that it is a very important element of the puzzle and makes the need for opup far more tentative in my view as WT+ being a smaller cabin is paradoxically a little easier to predict. Many upgrades from WT+ seem to be ripple effects from the overselling of Y (though overselling of W also happens of course)..
Jan 11, 2018, 1:46 pm
#10
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: SE1, London
Posts: 23,435
Jan 11, 2018, 1:53 pm
#12
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
Join Date: Feb 2010
Programs: BA Lifetime Gold; Flying Blue Life Platinum; LH Sen.; Hilton Diamond; Kemal Kebabs Prized Customer
Posts: 63,803
BA routinely did this on West African routes, sometimes you could add 100 to that number, used to drive check-in staff up the creek. Now 50 or so oversold? Not daily but more than weekly. On JFK a particular service could easily be 50 oversold, fortunately with umpteen flights all leaving within a few hours they usually manage to squeeze everyone on board somehow or other by the final service. Non status passengers in World Traveller are the ones to come across this, unsurprisingly it's not something FTers will necessarily come across.
Jan 11, 2018, 1:54 pm
#13
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: uk
Programs: Accor Silver, HHonours Silver, Carlson Gold, BA Blue
Posts: 290
the idea of 'Lose' I guess is two-fold: those who have paid such a low price that they are willing to forgo the flight, and those that have paid for fully flex tickets that they can just change their mind at the drop of a sombrero
Jan 11, 2018, 1:59 pm
#14
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: London, UK
Programs: BAEC GGL/GFl, HH Diamond, BW Diamond, Virgin Voyages Deep Blue Extra, Blue Peter Badge Holder
Posts: 3,937
Indeed, particularly when someone else has paid for the flight, but also those who sleep through their alarm, miss their connection or whose documents are not in order to think of another few examples. In the prediction, an airline can also take into account the number of status passengers and by virtue of their flight history it would be possible to predict their likelihood of arriving in time.
Jan 11, 2018, 2:03 pm
#15
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: uk
Programs: Accor Silver, HHonours Silver, Carlson Gold, BA Blue
Posts: 290
Indeed, particularly when someone else has paid for the flight, but also those who sleep through their alarm, miss their connection or whose documents are not in order to think of another few examples. In the prediction, an airline can also take into account the number of status passengers and by virtue of their flight history it would be possible to predict their likelihood of arriving in time.
Lets say 12-fold then
