HAL drops domestic fees - speculation on new routes
Jan 4, 2018, 1:32 am
#91
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GCI runway cannot presently take an A319 or A320, which is why BA pulled out when they sold BA connect, and why EZ do not go there either. Indeed I have heard that even the Aurigny E190 is weight restricted when the runway is wet.
Another vote for JER - it is a status heavy route with a lot of premium connecting pax to business destinations from LHR. They would certainly fill 2 LHR flights, and people would pay a premium to avoid the M25 schlep.
It is quite possible to operate for BA to operate GCI to LGW as it would not require a fully fuelled plane.
Whilst many in Guernsey argue that lengthening the runaway to 1,900m would attach the bigger players, in reality they can fly there at the moment if they really wanted to. BA of course could also operate E170 or E190 planes as part LCY weekend programme.
Jan 4, 2018, 2:19 am
#93
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It makes me wonder how many airports which are served by the likes of KLM & LH, BA would find profitable if they factor in customers transferring onto long haul
Jan 4, 2018, 3:25 am
#95
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I love these questions!
Dead Certs:
JER: it's only at LGW?? never knew that. Im amazed it isn't at LHR already, so Im sure that will be one of the first.
Newquay: For all the Londoners who think that Cornwall is the only county outside the M25.
Personally I would be targeting where KLM are running the city hopper services, All the hub and spoke passengers that BA should be having and where the road networks are worse.
Top priorities:
Highlands of Scotland
Humberside (biased as its my local) Large amount of renewable energy, oil & gas & shipping industry close by.
Bristol: road connections to LHR are good, but with 4 flights a day with KLM surely they could take some business, could serve the South West and South Wales
Norwich: roads from Norfolk to the capital are mediocre at best so don't think location is a problem. serving most of East Anglia
Potentially:
Durham: KLM running 3 a day so could be some demand but could be too close to NCL.
Cardiff, depends on how well QR do with that route. KLM run 3 a day IIRC
Liverpool: Big population, but MAN is the right side of the city for Liverpool so could cannibalise.
East Midlands: Close to Nottingham & population belt, but from a highway perspective the most well connected place in the whole of the UK, so easy access to alot of airports.
Wild card:
Robin Hood (DSA for the avgeeks): good little airport, deserves more traffic, large base of South Yorkshire population and could serve the HUY customers.
Dead Certs:
JER: it's only at LGW?? never knew that. Im amazed it isn't at LHR already, so Im sure that will be one of the first.
Newquay: For all the Londoners who think that Cornwall is the only county outside the M25.
Personally I would be targeting where KLM are running the city hopper services, All the hub and spoke passengers that BA should be having and where the road networks are worse.
Top priorities:
Highlands of Scotland
Humberside (biased as its my local) Large amount of renewable energy, oil & gas & shipping industry close by.
Bristol: road connections to LHR are good, but with 4 flights a day with KLM surely they could take some business, could serve the South West and South Wales
Norwich: roads from Norfolk to the capital are mediocre at best so don't think location is a problem. serving most of East Anglia
Potentially:
Durham: KLM running 3 a day so could be some demand but could be too close to NCL.
Cardiff, depends on how well QR do with that route. KLM run 3 a day IIRC
Liverpool: Big population, but MAN is the right side of the city for Liverpool so could cannibalise.
East Midlands: Close to Nottingham & population belt, but from a highway perspective the most well connected place in the whole of the UK, so easy access to alot of airports.
Wild card:
Robin Hood (DSA for the avgeeks): good little airport, deserves more traffic, large base of South Yorkshire population and could serve the HUY customers.
Jan 4, 2018, 3:43 am
#96
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Although CAX would be an interesting option for me, it’s 137 miles from there to MAN, and an additional 107 miles to GLA, but only 52 miles from NCL.
Is there really the population in Cumbria to support commercial flights? I live as far from CAX as it is possible to get whilst remaining in the county but it will still take me almost 2 hours to drive there.
Is there really the population in Cumbria to support commercial flights? I live as far from CAX as it is possible to get whilst remaining in the county but it will still take me almost 2 hours to drive there.
There would obviously be summer traffic heading to the lakes, and the environs of Carlisle (100,000) even when tacked onto Dumfries, and greater Cumbria probably only equate to half the population of Leeds, but more than the Isle of Man, same as Jersey - and perhaps most relevant - double Inverness. I never saw Glasgow or Manchester as a 'nice' options to fly from if you lived there, so I certainly think an airport would open up a fairly inaccessible place (compared to a lot of places in England anyway). I'm sure Eddie Stobart would be supportive (despite his small ownership in Aer Arran) and the freight 'terminal' may mean that Carlisle could be part subsidised by whats under the plane.
I can see how a convincing argument could be made to run a Carlisle - Heathrow twice daily service - but the most important thing initially would be the support the local council is seemingly offering to make it a successful regional airport.
As an aside I fly CWL-LCY on BE a couple of months ago - 2 days before it was cheaper than the train - and only 8 people on it. Not sure it's a viable option year round when LHR is so easily accessible (only started due to Severn Tunnel being shut for maintainence I think?)
Jan 4, 2018, 3:52 am
#97
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I wonder if they could get the Welsh government to stump up some PSO money for a daily flight to Maes Awyr Môn (Anglesey Airport or VLY).
Interesting for a BA do, as the other users of the airport make it a haven for plane spotters.
Interesting for a BA do, as the other users of the airport make it a haven for plane spotters.
Jan 4, 2018, 3:58 am
#98
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OK, so looking around on some of these comments, a few extra thoughts:
- the PSC reduction may help a bit, but it is probably the HAL route subsidy that really matters. A cynic may want to link the "potentials" map with marginal parliamentary constituencies.
- I think orbitmic is right that FlyBe will probably be far more interested in this than BA overall. So that is probably places like Newquay, Guernsey, Isle of Man.
- However Loganair probably has a niche interest too, hence perhaps Lerwick/Sumburgh (Loganair already flies Stansted to Dundee) and notwithstanding their recent introduction of "Clan Points", Loganair has an extensive codeshare deal with BA.
- BA's interest would indeed more for those places where KLM and Lufthansa are taking connecting trade away from BA, as we saw in Inverness.
So on that list, locations not served by BA are the following, some are clearly too near to LHR to be viable. Some locations below are seasonal / a bit on-off.
- KLM: Cardiff, Bristol, Humberside, Norwich, Birmingham, Humberside, Durham-Middlesbrough
- Lufthansa/Eurowings/SN: Guernsey, Newquay, Birmingham, Southampton, Bristol [some are BMI Regional]
- AF/Hop!: Durham-Boro, Birmingham, Norwich, Cardiff, Bristol, Exeter, Southampton, Isle of Man [some are FlyBe codeshares]
So using a Venn diagram, Birmingham seems to be on the radar here in terms of BA interest.
- the PSC reduction may help a bit, but it is probably the HAL route subsidy that really matters. A cynic may want to link the "potentials" map with marginal parliamentary constituencies.
- I think orbitmic is right that FlyBe will probably be far more interested in this than BA overall. So that is probably places like Newquay, Guernsey, Isle of Man.
- However Loganair probably has a niche interest too, hence perhaps Lerwick/Sumburgh (Loganair already flies Stansted to Dundee) and notwithstanding their recent introduction of "Clan Points", Loganair has an extensive codeshare deal with BA.
- BA's interest would indeed more for those places where KLM and Lufthansa are taking connecting trade away from BA, as we saw in Inverness.
So on that list, locations not served by BA are the following, some are clearly too near to LHR to be viable. Some locations below are seasonal / a bit on-off.
- KLM: Cardiff, Bristol, Humberside, Norwich, Birmingham, Humberside, Durham-Middlesbrough
- Lufthansa/Eurowings/SN: Guernsey, Newquay, Birmingham, Southampton, Bristol [some are BMI Regional]
- AF/Hop!: Durham-Boro, Birmingham, Norwich, Cardiff, Bristol, Exeter, Southampton, Isle of Man [some are FlyBe codeshares]
So using a Venn diagram, Birmingham seems to be on the radar here in terms of BA interest.
Jan 4, 2018, 4:06 am
#99
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Would an airline really risk the ire of environmentalists by introducing BHX-LHR flights when it's 1h10 from Euston to the airport served by trains every 20 minutes?
Jan 4, 2018, 4:09 am
#100
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As much as I would love HUY, Humberside, I would be surprised if that was ever on the agenda.
Whilst it's handy for LIncoln, Hull, S....horpe, Grimsby etc., and as said, there's some oil / renewables around the area, not sure if there would be the demand.
It's got no real transport links to it unless you're driving, catch the irregular bus that doesn't really suit plane times, or get a taxi the 4 miles from Barnetby railway station. I use it for KLM to Schiphol and then can go wherever from there.
2.5hr drive from Lincoln to Heathrow.
30 mins maybe to HUY.
Case of factoring in time taken, petrol, parking etc.
Grimsby is supposed to be getting a direct Cleethorpes-Kings Cross train at some point which might avoid changes at Doncaster or Newark, thus speeding up getting to London.
Lincoln already has a direct trains as does Hull.
Transpennine Express run hourly trains between Cleethorpes and Manchester Airport.
Leeds Bradford involves getting to Doncaster, Northern Rail or Virgin to Leeds and then the bus which is awkward.
No idea about Doncaster, East Midlands or any other regional airports.
Whilst it's handy for LIncoln, Hull, S....horpe, Grimsby etc., and as said, there's some oil / renewables around the area, not sure if there would be the demand.
It's got no real transport links to it unless you're driving, catch the irregular bus that doesn't really suit plane times, or get a taxi the 4 miles from Barnetby railway station. I use it for KLM to Schiphol and then can go wherever from there.
2.5hr drive from Lincoln to Heathrow.
30 mins maybe to HUY.
Case of factoring in time taken, petrol, parking etc.
Grimsby is supposed to be getting a direct Cleethorpes-Kings Cross train at some point which might avoid changes at Doncaster or Newark, thus speeding up getting to London.
Lincoln already has a direct trains as does Hull.
Transpennine Express run hourly trains between Cleethorpes and Manchester Airport.
Leeds Bradford involves getting to Doncaster, Northern Rail or Virgin to Leeds and then the bus which is awkward.
No idea about Doncaster, East Midlands or any other regional airports.
Jan 4, 2018, 4:32 am
#101
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Some musings on Jersey (JER) ...
1. The JER-LHR route used to be served by BMI. I last used it on 28 May 2008 to connect to a BA TATL ... and on the return leg 3 weeks later it was gone, and we had to hop to LGW to get home with BA. Why did it disappear? Slots? Non-profitable? I only know that the route was dropped within 24 hours of my last BMI booking ... I received a very prompt refund!
2. Is there enough demand for JER-LHR? i have no doubt there are plenty of business pax connecting to l/h from LHR, but how many rotations a day would that justify ... two? Compare and contrast with the current 5-a-day to LGW, add the 2-a-day FlyBe JER-LCY, and we already have pretty intensive connectivity. Is there really demand for more? Would dropping 1 or 2 LGWs in favour of LHRs actually work?
3. What is the mix of Business/Leisure between JER and London airports? Assuming Business pax are mainly heading for central London, how many are left to go l/h from LHR? And how many Leisure pax are wanting to go to LHR, when so many BA leisure routes are now ex-LGW?
Without any specific data [even if such exists] it would be a very complex scenario to unravel and justify the introduction of [a few] JER-LHR flights.
1. The JER-LHR route used to be served by BMI. I last used it on 28 May 2008 to connect to a BA TATL ... and on the return leg 3 weeks later it was gone, and we had to hop to LGW to get home with BA. Why did it disappear? Slots? Non-profitable? I only know that the route was dropped within 24 hours of my last BMI booking ... I received a very prompt refund!
2. Is there enough demand for JER-LHR? i have no doubt there are plenty of business pax connecting to l/h from LHR, but how many rotations a day would that justify ... two? Compare and contrast with the current 5-a-day to LGW, add the 2-a-day FlyBe JER-LCY, and we already have pretty intensive connectivity. Is there really demand for more? Would dropping 1 or 2 LGWs in favour of LHRs actually work?
3. What is the mix of Business/Leisure between JER and London airports? Assuming Business pax are mainly heading for central London, how many are left to go l/h from LHR? And how many Leisure pax are wanting to go to LHR, when so many BA leisure routes are now ex-LGW?
Without any specific data [even if such exists] it would be a very complex scenario to unravel and justify the introduction of [a few] JER-LHR flights.
Jan 4, 2018, 4:46 am
#102
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Whilst I'm only a single data point I'd exclusively use a JER>LHR over a LGW route. I fall in to the category of the LH connections, but I also fly to and from JER to the mainland for meetings, and a lot more of the country is on the LHR side of London than LGW and having to add 45 mins (on a good day) to orbit the M25 just to get to HR and beyond is a pain.
(I live part time in Jersey and otherwise in Hammersmith so LHR is supremely useful personally)
(I live part time in Jersey and otherwise in Hammersmith so LHR is supremely useful personally)
Jan 4, 2018, 4:59 am
#103
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It's more like 2h20m from Heathrow to Brirmingham via Tube and National Rail, or 1h50m with more changes of train and higher cost using Heathrow Express, Tube, and National Rail. Add in ticketing hassles (needing to either pre-buy tickets yourself or pay large walk-up fares), bag carrying, problems of re-accommodation on the train journey after the flight to Heathrow arrives late or vice-versa, and so on then an air routing of BHX-LHR-rest-of-world could look a lot more attractive.
Jan 4, 2018, 5:25 am
#104
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If it has a positive effect on the profitabily of an airline then the views of environmentalists are irrelevant. Despite their protestations, environmental groups will never gain the upper hand on big business, they can only hope to effect minor changes to business practice where it suits the business agenda.
