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Weather disruption - LHR and perhaps elsewhere - 27 December 2017

Weather disruption - LHR and perhaps elsewhere - 27 December 2017

Old Dec 26, 17, 7:52 am
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Weather disruption - LHR and perhaps elsewhere - 27 December 2017

I imagine some people know what's coming whenever they see a thread from me with such a title!

I've been made aware that there are cancellations coming up in the system for travel tomorrow. Keep an eye on your bookings, if you haven't switched off the privacy settings you should get pro-active text and email messages alerting you to cancellations and perhaps auto rebooking you. This typically comes a couple of hours after BA.com/arrdep has pencilled up a cancellation.

This is what we know so far as cancellations:
BA1440-1441 EDI 11:30 hrs ex LHR
BA1484-1489 GLA 13:05
BA1342-1343 LBA 12:10 (no MAN cancellations yet, plenty of availability)
BA430-431 AMS 07:45
BA426-4277 AMS 18:45
BA396-397 BRU 11:00
BA314-315 CDG 13:05
BA828-829 DUB 18:20
BA936-937 DUS 07:10
BA910-911 FRA 15:10
BA724-725 GVA 07:00
BA964-965 HAM 07:00
BA460-461 MAD 13:25
BA952-953 MUC 12:10
BA994-995 TXL 13:55
BA716-717 ZRH 13:00
I notice tomorrow is a heavy day for domestics, more flights than normal. Some of the above may have been cancelled prior to Christmas but I know most of them are new.

We are aware of some AMS back to backers tomorrow, you may need to proceed with caution here, if this turns out to be preventative then you may want to remain back to back, but work backwards to an earlier rotation. If you suspect real problems then it gets more complicated but you may want to ask BA to just delete AMS and you'll find someway to get to LHR.....

Any TAF Metar information from anyone? [Ideally decoded!]
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Last edited by corporate-wage-slave; Dec 26, 17 at 3:47 pm
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:02 am
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave View Post

This is what we know so far:
apols, worked out myself. cancellations.

I am on a DUB or two tomorrow......... and a FRA.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:02 am
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Any idea if BA461 MAD-LHR is cancelled tomorrow because of weather or rather the 787 issue (the plane scheduled was a 777)?
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:06 am
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I can't decode a TAF well enough to post it on here, but looking at this we can see that it will be very windy but not cold enough to snow with a freezing level of 500 meters.
This TAF which comes decoded automatically on this site: METAR TAF : Heathrow Airport, London-Heathrow England and says 2500 meters visibility with high crosswinds so yes delays and cancellations inevitable, but nothing too crazy hopefully. Flow restrictions at LHR due to visibility and wind?





Last edited by ahmetdouas; Dec 26, 17 at 8:23 am
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:06 am
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Originally Posted by Goonflyer View Post
Any idea if BA461 MAD-LHR is cancelled tomorrow because of weather or rather the 787 issue (the plane scheduled was a 777)?
Weather as far as I can tell.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:23 am
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Are more cancellations expected?
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:23 am
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave View Post
Weather as far as I can tell.
I think winds basically along with a little bit of rain/sleet (hopefully someone will confirm or correct me). This is the problem bit I think:

BECMG 2706/2709 34016G26KT
TEMPO 2706/2712 35020G36KT 2500 RASN BKN004
So basically tomorrow morning from 6am to midday is forecast to be quite windy (20kts gusting to mid 30s). In itself not critical as with Time Based Separation they can reduce spacing so that the landing rate is kept fairly high. However TBS works best when the wind is mostly headwind - you can imagine that a strong headwind means groundspeed is lower so aircraft can be physically closer whilst maintaining the same time separation. The problem tomorrow is the wind is coming from more or less due south (350 degrees) so with a east-west runway configuration at LHR it's all crosswind with little if any headwind so TBS is of little use.

I think there may also be deicing delays too since at those temperatures where there is rain/sleet some deicing may be needed during the day.

Again the above is my amateur guess. Hopefully one of our resident experts can give some detail.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:24 am
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In basic terms the TAF says that there is a 30% chance of heavy sleet showers between 6am and midday reducing visibility to 2500m, with 400 foot cloudbase and winds turning northly (ie straight across the runway) at 30mph gusting 40mph. 30% is a very low chance in forecasting terms but if you happen to catch one it would be buttock clenching time!! From around 3pm onwards it should be quite a nice day. Of course the winds at 2000ft will be significantly stronger and that is probably what is driving a lower predicted flow rate. A new forecast should be issued around 6pm.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:33 am
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"Clear the schedules, clear the schedules".
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:39 am
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Originally Posted by tedcruz View Post
Are more cancellations expected?
I've been told TACPLAN is now in place (so tactical planning to reduce aircraft movements). There may be other cancellations I've not heard about or found yet.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:42 am
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Second cancelled LBA flight this month I've been booked on unfortunately! Lets hope MAN holds up a bit better than the chaos last time.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 8:57 am
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Here's hoping they do cancel BA886 to OTP tomorrow so that I can start my OTP-PHX from London

If the cancellation couod be announced just after I enter the CCR that would be even better
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Old Dec 26, 17, 9:32 am
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Newsflash on BA.com now:
Originally Posted by BA.com
Possible snow at Heathrow – Wednesday 27 December

Answer Id 6292 Updated 26/12/2017 02.28 PM (UK time)

Sleet and possibly snow are forecast for the Heathrow area tomorrow morning so we are making some adjustments to our schedule on Wednesday 27 December.

During cold weather conditions aircraft have to be de-iced prior to departure to ensure that they are safe and additional measures are taken to ensure the safety of our operation is maintained at all times. We ask customers to check the status of their flight before they come to the airport and we will do all we can to minimise the effect the weather has on our operations.

Check the status of your flight

Please keep checking the very latest information about your flight on a regular basis before travelling to the airport, as the weather forecast may change.

> Check the status of your flight

You can also check your flight status on your mobile phone.

What to do if your flight has been cancelled

If your flight has been cancelled, please do not travel to the airport. We have a policy in place outlining the options available to you and how to make changes to your booking.

> Re-booking options if your flight has been cancelled
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Old Dec 26, 17, 11:41 am
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I'm on BA1329 at 12.00 tomorrow. There is a flight at 11.55 as well. Maybe they can combine the two.
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Old Dec 26, 17, 11:53 am
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A minority interest, but JER could be sporting tomorrow...
F7
Northwest strong F7 to gale F8, perhaps occasionally severe gale F9 in the morning, decreasing strong F6 to 7 by evening .....
Again an East/West runway, so crosswind limits may apply.
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