corporate-wage-slave

I imagine some people know what's coming whenever they see a thread from me with such a title!

I've been made aware that there are cancellations coming up in the system for travel tomorrow. Keep an eye on your bookings, if you haven't switched off the privacy settings you should get pro-active text and email messages alerting you to cancellations and perhaps auto rebooking you. This typically comes a couple of hours after BA.com/arrdep has pencilled up a cancellation.

This is what we know so far as cancellations:
BA1440-1441 EDI 11:30 hrs ex LHR
BA1484-1489 GLA 13:05
BA1342-1343 LBA 12:10 (no MAN cancellations yet, plenty of availability)
BA430-431 AMS 07:45
BA426-4277 AMS 18:45
BA396-397 BRU 11:00
BA314-315 CDG 13:05
BA828-829 DUB 18:20
BA936-937 DUS 07:10
BA910-911 FRA 15:10
BA724-725 GVA 07:00
BA964-965 HAM 07:00
BA460-461 MAD 13:25
BA952-953 MUC 12:10
BA994-995 TXL 13:55
BA716-717 ZRH 13:00
I notice tomorrow is a heavy day for domestics, more flights than normal. Some of the above may have been cancelled prior to Christmas but I know most of them are new.

We are aware of some AMS back to backers tomorrow, you may need to proceed with caution here, if this turns out to be preventative then you may want to remain back to back, but work backwards to an earlier rotation. If you suspect real problems then it gets more complicated but you may want to ask BA to just delete AMS and you'll find someway to get to LHR.....

Any TAF Metar information from anyone? [Ideally decoded!]

chris1979

apols, worked out myself. cancellations.

I am on a DUB or two tomorrow......... and a FRA.

Goonflyer

Any idea if BA461 MAD-LHR is cancelled tomorrow because of weather or rather the 787 issue (the plane scheduled was a 777)?

ahmetdouas

I can't decode a TAF well enough to post it on here, but looking at this we can see that it will be very windy but not cold enough to snow with a freezing level of 500 meters.
This TAF which comes decoded automatically on this site: METAR TAF : Heathrow Airport, London-Heathrow England and says 2500 meters visibility with high crosswinds so yes delays and cancellations inevitable, but nothing too crazy hopefully. Flow restrictions at LHR due to visibility and wind?

corporate-wage-slave

Weather as far as I can tell.

tedcruz

Are more cancellations expected?

KARFA

I think winds basically along with a little bit of rain/sleet (hopefully someone will confirm or correct me). This is the problem bit I think:

So basically tomorrow morning from 6am to midday is forecast to be quite windy (20kts gusting to mid 30s). In itself not critical as with Time Based Separation they can reduce spacing so that the landing rate is kept fairly high. However TBS works best when the wind is mostly headwind - you can imagine that a strong headwind means groundspeed is lower so aircraft can be physically closer whilst maintaining the same time separation. The problem tomorrow is the wind is coming from more or less due south (350 degrees) so with a east-west runway configuration at LHR it's all crosswind with little if any headwind so TBS is of little use.

I think there may also be deicing delays too since at those temperatures where there is rain/sleet some deicing may be needed during the day.

Again the above is my amateur guess. Hopefully one of our resident experts can give some detail.

oaplovestravel

In basic terms the TAF says that there is a 30% chance of heavy sleet showers between 6am and midday reducing visibility to 2500m, with 400 foot cloudbase and winds turning northly (ie straight across the runway) at 30mph gusting 40mph. 30% is a very low chance in forecasting terms but if you happen to catch one it would be buttock clenching time!! From around 3pm onwards it should be quite a nice day. Of course the winds at 2000ft will be significantly stronger and that is probably what is driving a lower predicted flow rate. A new forecast should be issued around 6pm.

simons1

"Clear the schedules, clear the schedules".

corporate-wage-slave

I've been told TACPLAN is now in place (so tactical planning to reduce aircraft movements). There may be other cancellations I've not heard about or found yet.

lost_in_translation

Second cancelled LBA flight this month I've been booked on unfortunately! Lets hope MAN holds up a bit better than the chaos last time.

OverTheHorizon

Here's hoping they do cancel BA886 to OTP tomorrow so that I can start my OTP-PHX from London

If the cancellation couod be announced just after I enter the CCR that would be even better

corporate-wage-slave

Newsflash on BA.com now:

tedcruz

I'm on BA1329 at 12.00 tomorrow. There is a flight at 11.55 as well. Maybe they can combine the two.

T8191

A minority interest, but JER could be sporting tomorrow...
Again an East/West runway, so crosswind limits may apply.