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Brexit: IAG may have to buy out British shareholders

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Old Jan 19, 2018, 3:01 pm
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Ldnn1
it would be a rather odd outcome for US airlines to be able to fly infra-EU (as they currently can, though not vice versa) while UK airlines cannot.
They can fly infra EU, but only as part of a service that goes to the US. The same applies for EU airlines within the US.

See Article 3 of the Air Transportation Agreement.

Last edited by Calchas; Jan 19, 2018 at 3:08 pm
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Old Jan 19, 2018, 5:09 pm
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by Calchas
They can fly infra EU, but only as part of a service that goes to the US. The same applies for EU airlines within the US.

See Article 3 of the Air Transportation Agreement.
There is a crucial difference - EU airlines cannot pick up passengers for intra-US travel, whereas US airlines can pick up passengers for intra-EU travel.

For example, EU airlines cannot sell JFK-MIA. US airlines can sell CDG-BCN.

Unless some form of open skies deal is agreed post-Brexit, UK airlines will no longer be able to sell CDG-BCN.

(infra was an autocorrect typo in my post above btw - I meant intra)
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Old Jan 20, 2018, 2:40 pm
  #33  
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Originally Posted by Ldnn1
(infra was an autocorrect typo in my post above btw - I meant intra)
Oh I thought it was a clever way of referring specifically to one level of subdivision below the EU, i.e., the nation state.

---

Originally Posted by Ldnn1
Ultimately in the long term it would be a rather odd outcome for US airlines to be able to fly intra-EU (as they currently can, though not vice versa) while UK airlines cannot.
But in any respect, that strange consequences may arise from Brexit must surely be taken as a given. Tidying up inconsistencies is not going to happen.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 9:50 am
  #34  
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The Financial Times has got some details of the state of the US-UK treaty negotiations.

At present the Americans are offering only a standard bilateral air service agreement.

It would require that airlines operating UK-US routes have “substantial ownership and effective control” by either UK or US nationals. BA, owned by IAG, a Spanish corporation, presumably would not qualify. VS presently does as Sir Richard owns 51% of it, but he is attempting to sell his stake to Air France-KLM.

The Americans are apparently also reluctant to extend the existing anti-trust immunity provisions, which enable AA and BA to cooperate on pricing and scheduling.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 10:08 am
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Calchas
It would require that airlines operating UK-US routes have “substantial ownership and effective control” by either UK or US nationals. BA, owned by IAG, a Spanish corporation, presumably would not qualify. VS presently does as Sir Richard owns 51% of it, but he is attempting to sell his stake to Air France-KLM.
I'm sure if needed AF-KLM would sell a part of their share to Delta to push them to 51% (currently they're 49%)
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 10:48 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by layz
I'm sure if needed AF-KLM would sell a part of their share to Delta to push them to 51% (currently they're 49%)
The threshold for US airlines is 75% ownership by US citizens. Also, the airline has to be majority run by US citizens. Sir Richard ran into this problem with Virgin America.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 1:30 pm
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by Calchas
The threshold for US airlines is 75% ownership by US citizens. Also, the airline has to be majority run by US citizens. Sir Richard ran into this problem with Virgin America.
The US loves a free market as long as American companies benefit from it, they're not so keen on foreign companies having a principal position in the USA.

The UK is unlikely to close its markets much, as it will need any foreign investment it can get, to try to grow the economy post-Brexit, but I can imagine the EU closing its economic borders somewhat after the UK leaves and a more dirigiste, protectionist ethos starts to come to the fore.

Squaring a more aggressive EU ownership and control requirement with a US-UK bilateral agreement requiring UK control of the UK airline could be very difficult. IAG, of course, could transfer most of the BA assets to Iberia or another EU airline, leaving a transatlantic and UK regional rump of BA left. London Atlantic Airways, anyone?
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Last edited by flatlander; Mar 5, 2018 at 1:35 pm
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 1:58 pm
  #38  
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Or there could be some sort of grandfather rights re ownership so no change is needed.

I could imagine IAG lobbying the EU to basically say "through no fault of our own you are forcing us to divest ourselves of a major part of our company and that is going to cost us a lot of money which is unfair"
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 2:35 pm
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by UKtravelbear
Or there could be some sort of grandfather rights re ownership so no change is needed.
While nothing is over until the fat lady sings, I think this is unlikely - it seems to me like having one’s cake and eating it.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 2:44 pm
  #40  
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Why? IAG has a cake already so what's wrong with them wanting to keep their existing cake?

Grandfather rights are pretty standard things all over the world.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 2:52 pm
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This will be just like the current 25% tariff proposal on steel, it's will screw America more than anyone else and will never happen. I'm sure they'll be a lot of huffing and puffing before early 2019 but when the time comes, they'll push over. Pretty sure AA quite likes the JBV...
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 3:16 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by UKtravelbear
Why? IAG has a cake already so what's wrong with them wanting to keep their existing cake?

Grandfather rights are pretty standard things all over the world.
Originally Posted by Calum
This will be just like the current 25% tariff proposal on steel, it's will screw America more than anyone else and will never happen. I'm sure they'll be a lot of huffing and puffing before early 2019 but when the time comes, they'll push over. Pretty sure AA quite likes the JBV...
Things get grandfathered when its mutually beneficial to fudge something. Thats effectively what grandfathering is, a fudge.

So, as in any trade negotiation grandfathering depends on what else the UK is willing to put on the table and whether the other parties (EU, US) get something they are happy with.

I'm constantly amazed that most of the UK press seem to think one side negotiates a trade deal. Quid pro quo etc.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 3:37 pm
  #43  
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Might be a stupid question, but what happens if British shareholders do not want to sell?
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 4:29 pm
  #44  
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Originally Posted by layz
I'm sure if needed AF-KLM would sell a part of their share to Delta to push them to 51% (currently they're 49%)
I think that you are missing the point. The objective is to ensure that VS is UK-controlled, not-US-controlled so as to obtain traffic rights as a UK company.

Originally Posted by UKtravelbear
Or there could be some sort of grandfather rights re ownership so no change is needed.

I could imagine IAG lobbying the EU to basically say "through no fault of our own you are forcing us to divest ourselves of a major part of our company and that is going to cost us a lot of money which is unfair"
Again, I am not sure I see the point here: it would not be the EU forcing IAG from divesting themselves of anything but rather the US.
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 11:46 pm
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by NickB
I think that you are missing the point. The objective is to ensure that VS is UK-controlled, not-US-controlled so as to obtain traffic rights as a UK company.

Again, I am not sure I see the point here: it would not be the EU forcing IAG from divesting themselves of anything but rather the US.
Arguably it’s the UK forcing IAG to break-up, everyone knows that the US is a tough negotiator, the aviation lobby is motivated by self-interest (look at the Norwegian saga) and open skies deals need congressional approval - and the U.K. still voted for this situation.
Michael O’Leary must be laughing his head off given this is what he’s been saying for the last 2 years while Willie Walsh has been relying on the “it’s inconceivable” line...
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