msm2000uk

The article published today by Raffles at HfP sheds a bit of light, potentially, on that -

"South China Morning Post: Can you reassure BA frequent flyers that thresholds won’t change? Or revenue-based mindset won’t be introduced?

Cruz: Let me rephrase your question. Is the exchange of points for money a tricky subject? The answer is yes..."

There is much more to that answer, which can be seen over at www.headforpoints.com

M

sxc

@msm2000uk thanks for pointing me there. It looks like Cruz either ignored the question, or didn't understand the question because he brings it right back to talking about what seems to be Avios earn/burn rather than status earn.

TheFlyingCyclist

subject2load

Dave_C

So Lufthansa have this today, in addition to their award chart and it’s not the end of the world. It’s rubbish value and people shouldn’t use it, but they do.

Interestingly, Amadeus have done some interesting talks on this, and the way they see it used most often is for people with small balances to clear out their accounts for a discount against the price of a ticket.

If otherwise their miles were about to expire, I don’t see this as too bad a use of them.

Let’s also be clear, I’m no huge fan of M&M, especially coupled with the recent revenue based devaluation which has dramatically decreased earnings, particularly on A and P fares.

In Rob’s interview, there was nothing about changes to status, status benefits and tier points. I suspect the “slider” is being trailed to distract from other changes.

If I were a betting man, I would posit that they would be going down the Delta route of removing reward charts entirely, and to a more dynamic Avios cost per flight, more closely linked to the underlying revenue selling class.

bisonrav

All the warning signs are there. Invocation of "groups of frequent fliers" in a consultation exercise (if that's true someone here should be part of that, and I don't see anyone suggesting they are). That's a classic "following consultation with our most valued customers we have decided to enhance away..." attempt to deflect complaints. Usually the consultations are not real or composed of Hobson's choice questions.

And he dodged the question about tier levels completely. He's not stupid, he understood the question and he gave a ridiculously cryptic answer.

I think you can conclude from the interview that we have until the end of the year, after that I'd be amazed if status and earn/burn weren't revenue based.

subject2load

@bisonrav - I’d say you’ve pretty much nailed it.

Whenever politicians (not widely regarded as shining beacons of honesty) respond to a simple question with a different question of their own ...........

craigthemif

Given the priors of both BA and the rest of the industry, "dynamic pricing" gives me the chills, as it can and will be used to hide all sorts of devaluations.

But even the most jaded FTer probably jumps on the opportunity to "part pay with Avios" whenever a promotion brings the value up to 1p or so. What's not to like? Pay less cash, still earn Avios and Tier Points from a standard revenue ticket. No faffing about with award inventory.

Want to reward your best customers? Don't hand out more Avios for higher fares, but let Silvers and Golds "part pay with Avios" at higher rates...

mike turnbull

I don't know how many Avios members/collectors there are globally, but I guess from a redeeming point the possible proposed changes are going to affect numerous members at the lower end. I have a neighbour who only collects for his annual visit within Europe once per year. Without knowing what the increase is likely to be, he will probably be shocked when he learns that, his one or two business flight a year, plus a bit of shopping, will now be nowhere near enough to redeem for himself, wife and child.

bisonrav

There's a pyramid model here - it's more important to induce your worst customers to pay more, either by choosing you in the first place or by buying add-ons, than it is to improve what your better customers pay. It's counter intuitive, but there are far fewer "best customers" and so the scale isn't there.

This is at the heart of various Cruz strategies mostly including de-bundling. But in making it possible at quite low levels of loyalty - a couple of flights a year - to get some savings on elements that don't cost BA a lot, such as seat selection, you drive behaviour at the mass consumption level where it really makes a difference.

I doubt he cares much about changes to GGL or even gold, because the numbers are relatively low. I suspect he won't want to rock the boat too much there, and hence the comments on not wanting changes to be seen as punitive. But you could easily imagine benefits being eroded by the ability to pay for seats, lounge access, boarding privilege using Avios.

Lefly

If I recall correctly, M&M went revenue based for award miles, but they didn't touch earnings and requirements for status. Same for Flying Blue, they just changed the award system but nothing about status?

subject2load

@mike turnbull - your neighbour may (or may not !) continue to be able to take advantage, just as they currently do.

Cruz was already hinting at impending changes to the scheme back in November last year during a speech and Q&A in London (at which I happened to be present). His basic line then was that current burn levels would not be worsened - but that availability would increase. His actual example was

Raffles

I don't think you should look at the US schemes as a model. Those are island-driven. UK members are also using Finnair, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Qatar, RJ, American etc and a BA-only revenue system won't work. You can't get revenue data from partners.

Mordac

At least on AA Advantage, you can still earn "Elite Qualifying Dollars" by distance travelled and fare class on OW partners.

etiene

I suspect the point was that the vast majority of members don't - when you don't leave the US much/at all, staying within the preferred airline is much more important.