Measuring BA's grip on London Heathrow
 

Work in progress

There is one thing I read quite frequently in this forum and that is comments about BA’s dominance at LHR. While BA has a dominant position and there is no doubting that, the matter was somewhat unmeasured in my mind. So I set to work…

To begin this study, I am starting with the long haul routes operated out of Heathrow. This makes my task a little more manageable, but please don’t let my shortcomings stop you adding your own short haul figures. If asked to estimate the total number of long haul destinations operated by all carriers out of Heathrow, i'd probably guess somewhere in the region of 150. Well, according to London Heathrow, the current number is 96 (give or take one or two). So there you go, much fewer than I thought. These have been plotted on to the map for dramatic effect as you can see below.

https://prospelicious.com/wp-content...Routes.001.png
Abu Dhabi was overlooked when the map was created. I will try to work it in ASAP (the ME region is a very tight fit)

Using oneworld.com’s interactive network map, I collated BA’s current long haul routes served from LHR and plotted them onto a fresh map. Then I counted. By my calculation, there are 68 BA routes. So if you are to fly from LHR to anywhere in the world this week, BA can take you to about 70% of the destinations direct out of LHR. This figure includes BA's one-stop routes such as Sydney and Grand Cayman - a minor variance that comes out in the wash.

https://prospelicious.com/wp-content...Routes.002.png
Destinations greyed out are 1 stop routes: LHR-SIN-SYD and LHR-NAS-GCM

So we can look at these routes in more detail to gain a better picture on service frequencies. Other airlines plying the route and their frequencies are shown in square brackets. All figures relate to weekly frequencies since not every flight operates on a daily basis. I have also added cabin classes available on BA's routes. Please bear with me as I am still mining this data, so the full list of competitor's frequencies is not complete at the moment. I will also indicate BA codeshares during the next update.

North America and Caribbean: 28 airports
LHR-ATL | 7 flights per week | 773 | FJWM [DL: 7, VS: 7]
LHR-AUS | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM
LHR-BOS | 25 flights per week | 388+744+772+789 | FJWM [DL: 7; VS: 7]
LHR-BWI | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-DEN | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-DFW | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [AA: 21]
LHR-EWR | 14 flights per week | 772+789 | FJWM [AI: 3, UA: 42, VS: 7]
LHR-GCM | 4 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-IAD | 14 flights per week | 744+772 | FJWM [UA: 21, VS: 7]
LHR-IAH | 14 flights per week | 772 | FJWM [UA: 14]
LHR-JFK | 49 flights per week | 744+772 | FJWM [AA: 28, DL: 21, VS: 42]
LHR-LAS | 11 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-LAX | 14 flights per week | 388 | FJWM [AA: 14, NZ: 7, UA: 7, VS: 21]
LHR-MIA | 14 flights per week | 388+744 | FJWM [AA: 14, VS: 7]
LHR-MEX | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [AM: 6]
LHR-MSY | 4 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-NAS | 4 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-ORD | 14 flights per week | 744+772 | FJWM [AA: 28, UA: 21]
LHR-PHL | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [AA: 14, DL: 5]
LHR-PHX | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-SAN | 7 flights per week | 773 | FJWM
LHR-SEA | 12 flights per week | 744+772 | FJWM [VS: 7]
LHR-SFO | 14 flights per week | 388+744 | FJWM [UA: 14, VS: 11]
LHR-SJC | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM
LHR-YUL | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM [AC: 7]
LHR-YVR | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [AC: 7]
LHR-YYC | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM [AC: 7]
LHR-YYZ | 14 flights per week | 772+788+789 | FJWM [AC: 26]

South America: 4 airports
LHR-EZE | 7 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-GIG | 5 flights per week | 772 | FJWM
LHR-GRU | 7 flights per week | 772 | FJWM [JJ: 7]
LHR-SCL | 4 flights per week | 789 | FJWM

Africa: 8 airports
LHR-ABV | 4 flights per week | 772 | FJWM
LHR-ACC | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-CAI | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM [MS: 13]
LHR-CPT | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-JNB | 14 flights per week | 388+744 | FJWM [SA: 8, VS: 7]
LHR-LAD | 2 flights per week | 772 | FJWM
LHR-LOS | 7 flights per week | 772 | FJWM [VS: 7]
LHR-NBO | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [KQ: 6]

Europe: 1 airport
LHR-DME | 21 flights per week | 321+772 | FJWM [SU: 19 to SVO]

Middle East: 12 airports
LHR-AMM | 7 flights per week | 321 | JM [RJ: 7]
LHR-AUH | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM [EY: 21]
LHR-BAH | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [GF: 14]
LHR-BEY | 7 flights per week | 321 | JM [ME:14]
LHR-DOH | 7 flights per week | 772 | FJWM [QR: 42]
LHR-DXB | 20 flights per week | 744+772 | FJWM [EK:42, QF: 14, VS: 7]
LHR-IKA | 7 flights per week | 772 | JWM [IR: 3]
LHR-JED | 6 flights per week | 789 | FJWM [SV: 4]
LHR-KWI | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM [KU: 10]
LHR-MCT | 5 flights per week | 772 | FJWM [WY: 14]
LHR-RUH | 7 flights per week | 744+772 | FJWM [SV: 1]
LHR-TLV | 16 flights per week | 321+772+788 | FJWM [LY: 18]

Asia: 14 airports
LHR-BKK | 7 flights per week | 772 | JWM [BR: 6, TG: 13]
LHR-BOM | 14 flights per week | 773+789 | FJWM [AI: 7, 9W: 14]
LHR-BLR | 7 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-DEL | 14 flights per week | 789 | FJWM [AI: 14, VS: 7, 9W: 7]
LHR-HKG | 14 flights per week | 388+773 | FJWM [CX: 35, VS: 7]
LHR-HND | 7 flights per week | 773 | FJWM [JL: 7, NH: 7]
LHR-HYD | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-MAA | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-NRT | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM
LHR-ICN | 6 flights per week | 788 | JWM [KE: 7, OZ: 7]
LHR-KUL | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM [MH: 13]
LHR-PEK | 7 flights per week | 773 | FJWM [CA: 14]
LHR-PVG | 10 flights per week | 772+789 | FJWM [MU: 7, VS: 7]
LHR-SIN | 14 flights per week | 388+773 | FJWM [SQ: 22]

Australasia: 1 airport
LHR-SYD | 7 flights per week | 773 | FJWM [EK: 7, QF: 7]

Total: 68 airports


Moving on, from the total of 68 airport destinations served by BA, I removed those airports where BA has at least one direct competitor, which leaves us with 20 routes operated by BA exclusively out of Heathrow (including BA's one-stop service to Grand Cayman)

https://prospelicious.com/wp-content...Routes.003.png
Destinations greyed out are 1 stop services: LHR-NAS-GCM

Again, looking at these routes in more detail to get a better picture on service frequencies:

North America and Caribbean (10):
LHR-SJC | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM
LHR-SAN | 7 flights per week | 773 | FJWM
LHR-LAS | 11 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-PHX | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-DEN | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-BWI | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-AUS | 7 flights per week | 789 | FJWM
LHR-MSY | 4 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-NAS | 4 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-GCM | 4 flights per week | 772 | JWM

South America (3):
LHR-EZE | 7 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-GIG | 5 flights per week | 772 | FJWM
LHR-SCL | 4 flights per week | 789 | FJWM

Africa (4):
LHR-ACC | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM
LHR-ABV | 4 flights per week | 772 | FJWM
LHR-LAD | 2 flights per week | 772 | FJWM
LHR-CPT | 7 flights per week | 744 | FJWM

Asia (3):
LHR-BLR | 7 flights per week | 772 | JWM
LHR-HYD | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM
LHR-MAA | 7 flights per week | 788 | JWM

Total: 20 airports


Routes served out of Heathrow not operated by BA
http://prospelicious.com/wp-content/...Routes.004.png

So if BA serves 70% of the current routes, which carriers are serving the remaining 30%? And, more to the point, which routes are currently missing from BA's network?

North America and Caribbean (8):
CLT Charlotte [AA: 14]
DTW Detroit [DL: 7]
YHZ Halifax [AC: 5]
MSP Minneapolis [DL: 7]
YOW Ottawa [AC: 6]
RDU Raleigh-Durham [AA: 7]
SLC Salt Lake City [DL: 5]
YYT St Johns [AC: 7]

South America (1):
BOG Bogata [AV: 7]

Africa [3):
ADD Addis Ababa [COLOR="Gray"][ET: 7]
LXR Luxor [MS: 5]
MRU Mauritius [MK: 3]

Asia (17):
AMD Ahmedabab [AI: 1]
ASB Ashgabat [T5: 1]
TSE Astana [KC: 4]
GYD Baku [J2: 5]
BWN Brunei [BI: 7]
CMB Colombo [UL: 7]
DAC Dhaka [BG: 4 via ZYL]
CAN Guangzhou [CZ: 7]
HAN Hanoi [VN: 4]
SGN Ho Chi Minh City [VN: 3]
ISB Islamabad [PK: 4]
CGK Jakarta [GA: 3]
KHI Karachi [PK: 2]
LHE Lahore [PK: 4]
MNL Manila [PR: 7]
ZYL Sylhet [BG: 4]
TAS Tashkent [HY:2]

Australasia (2):
AKL Auckland [NZ: 7 via LAX]
MEL Melbourne [QF: 7 via DXB]


Summary data
Having collated the service frequencies developed from the list of long haul destinations provided by Heathrow Airport, these can be reviewed by geographic region. Routes within each region have been divided into alliance groups with weekly slot pairs added to indicate service frequencies. Charts have been added for dramatic effect.

North America and Caribbean
https://prospelicious.com/wp-content...Charts.001.png

oneworld
BA: 28 airports | 308 slot pairs
AA: 8 airports | 140 slot pairs

Star Alliance
AC: 7 airports | 65 slot pairs
AI: 1 airport | 3 slot pairs
NZ: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
UA: 6 airports | 119 slot pairs

Skyteam + Virgin Atlantic
AM: 1 airport | 6 slot pairs
DL: 7 airports | 59 slot pairs
VS: 9 airports | 116 slot pairs


South America
http://prospelicious.com/wp-content/...Charts.002.png

oneworld
BA: 4 airports | 23 slot pairs
JJ: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs

Star Alliance
AV: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs


Africa
https://prospelicious.com/wp-content...Charts.003.png

oneworld
BA: 8 airports | 55 slot pairs

Star Alliance
ET: 1 airport | 5 slot pairs
MS: 2 airports | 18 slot pairs
SA: 1 airport | 8 slot pairs

Skyteam
KQ: 1 airport | 6 slot pairs

Others
MK: 1 airport | 3 slot pairs
VS: 2 airports | 14 slot pairs


Europe:

oneworld
BA: 1 airport | 21 slot pairs

Skyteam
SU: 1 airport | 19 slot pairs


Middle East:
http://prospelicious.com/wp-content/...Charts.004.png

oneworld
BA: 12 airports | 101 slot pairs
QF: 1 airport | 14 slot pairs
QR: 1 airport | 42 slot pairs
RJ: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs

Skyteam
SV: 2 airports | 5 slot pairs
ME: 1 airport | 14 slot pairs

Others
EK: 1 airport | 42 slot pairs
EY: 1 airport | 21 slot pairs
GF: 1 airport | 14 slot pairs
KU: 1 airport | 10 slot pairs
LY: 1 airport | 18 slot pairs
IR: 1 airport | 3 slot pairs
VS: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
WY: 1 airport | 14 slot pairs


Asia:
https://prospelicious.com/wp-content...Charts.005.png

oneworld
BA: 14 airports | 128 slot pairs
CX: 1 airport | 35 slot pairs
JL: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
MH: 1 airport | 13 slot pairs
UL: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs

Star Alliance
AI: 3 airports | 22 slot pairs
BR: 1 airport | 6 slot pairs
CA: 1 airport | 14 slot pairs
NH: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
OZ: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
SQ: 1 airport | 22 slot pairs
TG: 1 airport | 13 slot pairs

Skyteam
CZ: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
GA: 1 airport | 3 slot pairs
KE: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
MU: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
VN: 2 airports | 7 slot pairs

Others
BG: 1 airport | 4 slot pairs
BI: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
HY: 1 airport | 2 slot pairs
J2: 1 airport | 5 slot pairs
KC: 1 airport | 4 slot pairs
PK: 3 airports | 10 slot pairs
PR: 1 airport | 7 slot pairs
T5: 1 airport | 1 slot pairs
VS: 3 airports | 21 slot pairs
9W: 2 airports | 21 slot pairs


I hope you find this of interest and again, if anyone wishes to add short haul data, please go ahead.

Very interesting ^

I'm not sure if it's still the case, but there were more destinations from MAN than LHR. There used to be a big sign in T1 saying MAN was the most connected UK airport :)

Really interesting to see. I think the argument around BA's dominance at LHR is overplayed. LHR is a very competitive market. I am also sure that the proportion of slots BA operates at LHR is much less than AF at CDG or LH at FRA.

LHR is actually poorly connected in terms of the range of destinations. I am sure that AMS, CDG and FRA have a much wider and more diverse route network.

Interesting figures.

Very nice, but remember that JBAs mean that on many routes AA / IB / AY / QR / JL?
are not competitors but part of BA's income. BA and AA could divide up routes in a similar way to DL & VS, and it would appear that they have less competition using the analysis above, when it fact it would be identical.

But that's not a phenomenon unique to BA. As you point others (VS/DL, UA/LH/LX, QF/EK etc) are doing the same and the regulatory environment around the approval of these is that there is competition.

The area that is weak on competition is the secondary cities eg, MSY, AUS etc. But as we all know the reverse is true, with a weak BA presence in the UK regions.

Very interesting
I wonder how that compares to Lufthansa at FRA, Air France at CDG etc ?

I'm not sure poor is right. LHR wins on frequencies, especially transatlantic. And if you compare LHR with JFK, SYD, NRT, I am not sure you would settle on the word poor either.

LHR network limitations are a factor of slot constraints. The slots go where the money goes.

Totally agree with the frequency point. Hence my choice of words:"range of destinations"- although I would further caveat that by saying "range of destinations outside North America" because North America is clearly well connected from LHR in every sense.

in what way? Can you offer an example?

Sure - if AA shifted their planes away from LHR-DFW and BA filled the gap by pulling out of LHR-DOH, it would appear on the analysis approach used that BA have a new monopoly on Dallas, and don't benefit from serving Doha.
But from BA's perspective, they get the same cash regardless of the operating airline on these routes, so their 'grip' remains the same.

In the same way, AA could start operating some rotations to SJC by reducing frequencies to CLT and RDU, and BA could cut some rotations to SJC and fill in the new gaps to CLT and RDU. It would seem that 3 routes with no competition are now competitive, but BA and AA would still earn the same amounts from each of the routes due to the joint business agreement.

I don't want things to be overcomplicated, but BA does not have a competitor if that airline is in a JBA - so Qatar, American, Finnair, Iberia and Japan Airlines.

Very nicely laid out 'base' data .. the surprise for me was the exclusivity for the three Indian routes. But also some clear 'nice little earners' on that graphic.
Dozens of caveats, of course, the data seems to be Summer schedule (ie. CPT shown as x7 as opposed to x14 thru the Winter).
Of interest also is the cities BA choose not to serve (another nice graphic :)), not many on that list I'd expect to be high up the list of priority for new routes.

Good work Prospero, thank you.

One could run all sorts of interesting analyses and visualisations on this kind of data if it were available in suitable formats. I wonder what kind of sources of data are available - I notice OpenFlights has a database, but I don't know how comprehensive it is, and there is an example of using this to plot route maps using R here.

Edit: more examples of this kind of thing here in the US, but you could do interesting things with a similar UK dataset for LHR. The nice thing about R or Python is that you can get both stats and pretty visualisations…

Edit 2: the CAA has airport datasets including movements by month and year (e.g. 2016 here) which could be a good starting point, but they report as block totals. I don't know if this is available by carrier anywhere, unfortunately.

This is only true if you book under the BA prefix. And the revenue (or codeshare availability) is no doubt adjusted by the total metal contributed or else AY has got a fantastic deal out of it.

In any respect, does it matter? Some folks are very happy to travel on AA but not BA even though there is revenue sharing.