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Snow forecast 12 January

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Snow forecast 12 January

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Old Jan 11, 2017, 2:50 pm
  #31  
 
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I still stand by my theory that the snow/rain will melt on the ground. I think the main issue would be visibility. Let's see tomorrow.

Here is the latest forecast by the way.
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 2:54 pm
  #32  
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The TAF, which is what I assume BApilotinsider is reporting on, is far more relevant than that forecast.
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 6:11 pm
  #33  
 
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The TAF for Heathrow also predicts some stiff crosswinds today (Thursday) around 18:00, which could be 22kt gusting 38kt from North / NW, adding to interesting flying conditions (and decreased flow rate), even if there is rain without snow.
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 6:36 pm
  #34  
 
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Plus a 30% chance of moderate snow in 500 metres visibility. While gusting 38 knots. Lovely. That's got First Officer's walkaound written all over it...

EGLL 112254Z 1200/1306 27008KT 9999 SCT040
BECMG 1210/1213 16010KT 7000 RA BKN012
PROB40
TEMPO 1212/1216 4500 +RA BKN005
BECMG 1216/1218 33017G28KT 4000 -RASN BKN008
TEMPO 1217/1220 1400 -SN BKN004
PROB30
TEMPO 1217/1219 33022G38KT 0500 SN VV///
BECMG 1219/1221 30012KT 9999 NSW FEW022

Boring TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast) decode available here.
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 8:10 pm
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by wingtip428
Plus a 30% chance of moderate snow in 500 metres visibility. While gusting 38 knots. Lovely. That's got First Officer's walkaound written all over it...

EGLL 112254Z 1200/1306 27008KT 9999 SCT040
BECMG 1210/1213 16010KT 7000 RA BKN012
PROB40
TEMPO 1212/1216 4500 +RA BKN005
BECMG 1216/1218 33017G28KT 4000 -RASN BKN008
TEMPO 1217/1220 1400 -SN BKN004
PROB30
TEMPO 1217/1219 33022G38KT 0500 SN VV///
BECMG 1219/1221 30012KT 9999 NSW FEW022

Boring TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast) decode available here.
Yep, irrespective of whether any snow accumulates, such a forecast of Cat2 visibility and crosswind turbulent conditions with the inevitable go arounds will push NATS to impose a very punitive flow rate, hence the mandated cancellations looks to be a good plan and may well turn out not to be enough. I gather that LGW have taken no action which would be a big bet. Anyone know the story there?
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 10:34 pm
  #36  
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Pure speculation but BA.com, along with the expected short haul cancellations, shows cancellation of flights to JFK, IAD and JED. Are these proactive to free up aircraft and crews to allow them to operate additional capacity on the short haul?
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 11:18 pm
  #37  
 
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Anyone had cancellations to/from LCY yet?
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 12:48 am
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by madfish
Pure speculation but BA.com, along with the expected short haul cancellations, shows cancellation of flights to JFK, IAD and JED. Are these proactive to free up aircraft and crews to allow them to operate additional capacity on the short haul?
Pure speculation back but from previous experience HAL mandate a percentage of cancellations PER HOUR (very sensible IMHO) so if you do not have sufficient short haul flights in the inventory you have to cancel long haul
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 1:06 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Porky Speedpig
Pure speculation back but from previous experience HAL mandate a percentage of cancellations PER HOUR (very sensible IMHO) so if you do not have sufficient short haul flights in the inventory you have to cancel long haul
That would be my thought too. And whilst fog-cancellations are typically morning, with a high proportion of short haul departures and arrivals, today's issues are likely to come at times when a lot of long haul flights are scheduled. That said, it could also be that in this season of weaker long haul travel, a weather related cancellation of one JFK rotation might work quite fine for BA whilst some of the short haul might be fuller with business travellers.
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 1:07 am
  #40  
 
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My flight BA2776 18:30 LGW-JER is cancelled. Got moved to the 19:30 flight. Not sure if the cancellation is for the snow. Seems that few other flights (BOD,AMS,GLA) are cancelled too.
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 1:29 am
  #41  
 
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[QUOTE=wingtip428;27746337]Plus a 30% chance of moderate snow in 500 metres visibility. While gusting 38 knots. Lovely. That's got First Officer's walkaound written all over it...

^
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 2:38 am
  #42  
 
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[quote=rapidex;27747582]
Originally Posted by wingtip428
Plus a 30% chance of moderate snow in 500 metres visibility. While gusting 38 knots. Lovely. That's got First Officer's walkaound written all over it...

^
Yes i think the biggest issue is the visibility and not the snow itself. The crosswinds should be fun = )

Has anyone seen this one? Insane!

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Old Jan 12, 2017, 2:47 am
  #43  
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Originally Posted by ahmetdouas
Yes i think the biggest issue is the visibility and not the snow itself. The crosswinds should be fun = )
Crosswind component is likely to be around 26kts at most so really not that much of an issue.
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 3:57 am
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
Crosswind component is likely to be around 26kts at most so really not that much of an issue.
But with winds gusting to 38kt per the TAF and Airbus equipment with windshear warning systems installed that's a mandatory go around if I recall correctly (pilots on here can confirm/correct). Same issue regularly affects LGW I think especially EZY with more recent deliveries.
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 4:01 am
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by Oaxaca
Anyone had cancellations to/from LCY yet?
These tend to happen closer to departure than LHR.
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