Woody12354

With the current political and economical position the UK are in at the moment will we continue to see > £800 deals to JFK and MIA Ex-DUB that we have in the past? Or with the devalue at the moment in the Euro will we see that increase?

Similar question with BA J fares Ex EU that we have had over the last 12 months >£900

Just wondering what the thoughts are?

I ask as I'm looking to do a multi city next year to NYC/Miami or SanFran/Vegas.... Would like to treat my other half and old dear if it's within my price range and upgrade them to first( if availability lets me)

I know I know .... Maybe I should have a crystal ball? However I'm guessing there are many financial/travel experts on here with an educated guess.

LondonAndy

Given that one of the big costs is fuel, and it is always denominated in US$, assuming that IAG haven't hedged too far in advance I would expect fares to rise in the next year, particularly heading to the US.

orbitmic

And obviously, with the depreciation of the GBP, any fares that are priced in other major currencies where you intend to pay in pounds would go up in price. So even if the ex-DUB might not increase much, if you pay from a £ account rather than a € one it will likely cost you quite a lot more.

On the plus side, conversely, if you are an Irish resident with an Irish bank or a French resident with a French bank account, both in € but want to buy a ticket ex-LHR, you might save a bit of money!

Woody12354

I've read on HFP that there has been a lot of cancellations with BA, especially Corporate travel. Do you think this will lead to more flash sales, or just reduced capacity, if at all possible?

AlanA

No one actually knows. Just have to wait and see.

Don't forget the US has an election this year and that will have an effect too

FlyerTalker688786

You are all right and all wrong in the same time.

Out from UK, the price will not be very much different.

But from EU, the price will eventually even out. The reason is banks in Italy is in crisis, banks in Germany is suffering, banks in Portugal is on life support, banks in Greece are already zombie...Eventually, Pounds will recover and be strong while Euro tanks. I think US bound flight will be slightly more expensive but flights to Asia will remain competitive.

Raffles

Airlines are not like normal businesses. Input costs do not drive output costs. The revenue management people do not even talk to the cost guys.

It is irrelevant if fuel prices go up. If demand drops, prices will fall. And demand is dropping.

Globaliser

Come on, someone's crystal ball must be working OK tonight?

Globalist

As Avios is sort of a UK currency let's see when the next devaluation comes.

Globalist

Cymro

Crystal ball gazing: my view is that we will see an overall drop in demand for flight to and from the UK. Unless flight connections somehow becomes much more complicated for EU nationals (unlikely given how onerous the current arrangements are for everyone, including British citizens) long-haul demand from Europe is unlikely to change much in the short term.

So I expect the savings to diminish, caused by a weaker currency over the next three to five years (i.e., until we get through the next cyclical recession and either have a trade deal in place or the markets - not just currency markets but importers and exporters - have priced in the lack of one, after which normal factors come into play) as well as a lack of demand, pushing down ex-UK fares in sterling.

Long term? It depends how BA reacts to the position. At the moment, W cabins are too small but BA is OK with letting J cabins soak up the excess so that it has the capacity to offer expensive J tickets when needed.

It could respond to reduced demand by cutting prices and filling planes to keep slots, in which case ex-EU prices would probably be similar in pounds, and ex-UK prices less in sterling. Equally it could find that revenue is maximized by leaving things as they are or even simply selling fewer, but more expensive J tickets and keeping W and Y prices correspondingly high.

Over a slightly longer period, it could also move away from First and expand WTP, with a smaller J cabin and a better WTP product (e.g., the new CX and AA PE products with seats with extra leg support, maybe moving to something close to angle flat throughout). This would be particularly so if more travel policies move away from J altogether and make W the highest permitted long-haul cabin. Eventually this would allow BA to charge correspondingly high prices for those who still need or are allowed J travel.

Finally, it could simply cut back on flights and slots, and opt not to replace planes as they leave the fleet, charging the same or more for fewer tickets. The only problem there is that those slots, once given back, would be difficult to retrieve, but if Brexit represents a long-term shift in capacity of the British economy as a whole, this may still be the right strategy.

Flying Lawyer

Continue dreaming, Boris! Banks are preparing to withdraw from London. Prices ex London will however go down since BA and others need to get their seats sold. On the long run, there will be no need for a further runway in LHR. Good for the environment.

ProleOnParole

I can't see how the prices could go up except nominally in GBP. In the long run, they'll be going down, following the negative demand shock.

FlyerTalker688786

Banks withdraw from London is an overstatement. If anything is going to happen once UK completely withdrawn from the EU, you will see banks actually increase its foothold in London. Granted, some jobs will be moved. Sour grapes like JP Morgan may move 1,000 staff BACK to the EU, majority will continue their business as usual as many of the red tapes will be removed.

So based on above estimate, I still believe the EU economy will tank faster, which in turn makes ex-EU fares more reasonable after the initial shock. The banking link between the USA/Canada and the UK will further strengthen thus trans-Atlantic fares will be higher.

At last please respect your fellow FTer, another opinion might not be what you liked or what you would agree, call it 'dreaming' is unnecessary. May I remind you some courtesy words like 'I think' 'I don't agree' 'I believe'. In the end, we are all speculating (despite your profession and works may lead you to believe in certain outcomes).

Raffles

You would be a fool to operate any sort of financial business from the UK given you would be blocked from operating in the EU. Far easier to relocate to Europe and, if necessary, apply for a UK licence later.

There is zero chance that the UK and US would agree a 'passport' regulatory deal. I doubt even Boris would have been crazy enough to suggest that.

Flying Lawyer

Still be there, Boris? Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche... From what I read and hear they all are on the route to Dublin or Frankfurt. There is certainly so much uncertainty in the UK and uncertainty is the worst thing a bank enjoys. Even the fate of the nation is to my belief at jeopardy with Scotland drifting away, with Ireland being divided again (or Ulster drifting away).

There is not reason for any bank to stay in London (except that it is language wise more comfortable for the Americans) when you need to be afraid to get disconnected from what is one of the strongest markets worldwide.

And you refer to the financial situation on the continent: Greek is a country with about 11 Million people. The EU can swallow these problems. Germany currently however enjoys a balanced budget despite accepting 1.4 million refugees. The UK did not accept any refugees but still accepts massive new debt every year.

It is Boris and his friends trying to argue that the continent is to the detriment of the nation. Some of his lies have already been made public and it did not come as a surprise that they ran away as soon as they should have taken responsibility. Nigel Paul Farage obviously more enjoys to cash in his EU parliament pension than to take responsibility for the nation and the chaos he created.

I am glad and proud to travel on two passports (well, probably on a Scottish one later in my life) but following what happens in the UK from abroad is not anyhow fun any longer.