Quarky Quark

Interested to hear thoughts on this, and kind of surprised it's not been raised already

Would ex-EU become even more attractive? If the pound does devalue against most major currencies then that seems a reasonable expectation, however the Euro may well fall to the same floor. OSL is the new DUB?

EU261 - Assume BA would be happy (in isolation) if this is removed.

If we eventually required visas to some EU countries, BA would potentially need to update their systems accordingly. Somehow that doesn't fill me with happy thoughts.

There could also be a reduction in people travelling abroad based on potentially higher prices, longer boarder checks and a weaker pound.

Disclaimer - not offering an opinion on Brexit one way or the other! Can we please keep those thoughts out of this thread

Globaliser

Whatever might happen - whether advantageous or disadvantageous to any of us - I suspect that it's going to be a while before most of it materialises.

However, if a short-term reaction to a vote to leave the EU means that the pound's value decreases, wouldn't that immediately make ex-EU tickets more expensive in sterling terms?

BA4EVER

The F sales going on right now ex-LON (AF and especially BA,) make me wonder if the airlines aren't hedging against Brexit by trying to sell a lot of premium capacity ASAP. I would think that the biggest monetary result would be making ex-LON a lot more attractive if the leave camp wins, as you may have €/Ł parity. I've booked away from BA lately because the product is so uncompetitive, but paid F in the current sale at under Ł2K is hard to ignore. I've resisted so far, but if that becomes the standard I might be tempted back just by the sheer sensibility of it. Of course, if AF P were consistently Ł3K or less from London, I would still pay the premium for the better experience.

henkybaby

I guess it all depends if Britain is leaving the EU in ET or CE...

irishguy28

Brexit 'will not have material impact' says airline chief Willie Walsh

I agree - but only because it won't happen!

Calum

For us, but not for the people BA are actually trying to sell ex-eu's to.

Theses also the damage it will do to the EUR to consider, as senior politicians from Denmark and Italy have said they'll be looking for the door if we decide to take it. Hence the GBP could slowly rise while the EUR crashes.

EvilDoctorK

I think you've got this backwards - if the pound depreciates ( as would seem very likely at least in the short-medium term) then ex-EU would become more, perhaps much more expensive in sterling terms .. Also given much of BA's cost base ( Fuel among other things ) is not denominated in Sterling it would be likely that airfares would go up in Sterling terms as well for ex-UK departures as well as they'll need more Łs to pay for the $s for fuel, aircraft leases etc. .. all speculation of course

Quite, though I guess many folk here wouldn't be keen on that ... Though worth noting if the UK stayed in the single market EU261 would still apply ( for instance I believe it is applicable to SWISS etc. )

Cymro

1. Ex-EU - we might see lower euro fares, but they're more likely to be driven by competition and oil prices, and less by the relative attractiveness of a UK/pound cost base. Any savings are likely to be largely offset in sterling terms by a weaker currency. If more stringent border controls are in place, ex-EU is going to be different unless you never enter the country.

2. EU261 - BA would still need to offer it for flights leaving the EU, and it may be incorporated into national law. Plus IAG may still be registered within the EU and that may bind BA.

3. Visas for the EU are unlikely but would be messy.

4. Agree and this would also weaken LHR's hub status - it becomes relatively more attractive for EU citizens to connect through AMS/FRA than deal with the non-UK (i.e., equivalent to non-EEA connections), though non-EU citizens manage at the moment.

Swanhunter

The likely 15-20% devaluation of the pound will result in ex EU becoming much more expensive for Sterling earners. Demand will probably drop in the short term as business post plans and investments while they digest the bombshell. Then structurally demand for travel to London will begin to drop but that is taking things into OMNI territory!

Quarky Quark

You are both correct and I apologise for being a buffoon! I definitely wasn't thinking straight when I wrote that!

DrBernardo

Don't forget the geopolitical implications as well...

Any EU open skies deal that BA relies on might no longer hold (would either need to be renegotiated as a bilateral, or revert to any earlier pre-EU bilateral deal - I suspect the only significant one here will be the US. I don't how how far BA is operating outside the limits of the old bilateral tho).

The intra-EU aviation freedoms (operating and commercial) would also become part of any negotiated exit, though presumably the UK would just do an open skies deal to retain these rights.

And finally, I don't know enough about the ownership and licensing of the Openskies operation from Paris, but assuming it's part of BA, that might need to shift to IAG or another IAG carrier...

FrancisA

Visas for the EU will be highly likely, if the UK imposes visa requirements on EU citizens.

While the EU prefers not to impose visa requirements on citizens in countries with comparable wealth; it will do so on a tit-for-tat basis, if the other country imposes a visa requirement on EU citizens - something it made clear to the USA when it threatened to impose visa restrictions on the citizens of certain EU countries. The EU's position was do that and we will impose visa requirements for all US citizens to enter the Schengen zone. The USA backed down.

I image that the same tack would be taken with the UK.

FrancisA

The Air Transport Agreement between the EU and the USA replaced Bermuda II on 30 March 2008. As I understand it, Bermuda II ceased to exist at that point.

I doubt that departure from that open skies agreement causes Bermuda II to come back to life (that would be akin to repeal of the Indian Independence Act 1947 making India, Pakistan and Bangladesh subject to the British colonial rule again).

In terms of Bermuda II, things have moved on. For instance the restriction on US carriers using LHR - the reason that they all left LGW.

I imagine a new agreement would be necessary - yet another thing to sort out on a very very long list.

:D!

I'm not sure why everyone is suggesting that the UK would require visas from EU citizens or v.v. (Well actually I know why but it doesn't make the argument any more valid)

Lots of countries' citizens can visit the UK visa-free for 6 months (longer than the Schengen Area maximum except for NZ citizens who can spend 3 months in each of several Schengen countries) and I don't see why EU citizens would not be able to vist visa-free.

Sure, if you want to work you may need a work permit which would result in some hassle before travelling, but the in-country procedures for EU citizens post-Brexit would become no more cumbersome than what British citizens already have to do to register their residence in most continental EU countries.

Talking about the US, the EU hasn't done anything about the US imposition of ESTAs and only started talking about it a few months ago, and neither has it done much about Canada still imposing visas on Romanians and Bulgarians - though I'm not sure of the latest situation

Cymro

I agree with every word you've said; certainly, if we Brexit there will be some attempt to impose visas for longer stays, but the vast majority of BA trips will continue to be below 90 days, and I would imagine that we'd also have visa-free business travel.

So yeah, visas are a possibility but with a substantial visa waiver programme or a simple exemption are likely to apply for the overwhelming majority of BA travellers to and from the EU.