Brexit - Potential impacts on BA?

Old Jun 24, 16, 3:19 am
  #91  
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Originally Posted by ian001 View Post
I think it's safe to say there now won't be a decision on a third runway at LHR this summer.
Heathrow probably won't be so crowded once BA loses its rights to fly anywhere except domestically!

Seriously, though - can the UK simply fall back on whatever old, possibly expired, air service agreements it had prior to gradually replacing some of those with EU-level agreements?

IAG's bases in Dublin and Madrid may suddenly become a lot busier in the immediate aftermath of the UK's eventual exit from the EU!!!
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:21 am
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Here's the short statement from IAG:

http://www.iairgroup.com/phoenix.zht...int&ID=2179819
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:29 am
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Originally Posted by ian001 View Post
Here's the short statement from IAG:

http://www.iairgroup.com/phoenix.zht...int&ID=2179819
Does that mean "we're going to have another sale to make more money?"

Not enough DUB-HNL bargains about which explains why last year was more profitable
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:33 am
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Originally Posted by oliver2002 View Post
If the City looses most of its businesses due to the Brexit, then BA has a serious problem getting premium traffic in C&F out of their LHR hub post 2018-19.
Agree, and it makes the London market relatively normal in terms of the rates that can be charged for premium cabins.

(E.g., compare ex-MAD or ex-DUS to ex-LHR non-stops).

For FTers doing ex-EUs... while they may get more difficult, they may also get less lucrative as currency pressure pushes the sterling price of ex-EU up, while lower demand reduces the price of ex-LON.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:33 am
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Originally Posted by LondonCanuck View Post
Headline just through:

IAG no longer sees absolute operating profit increase in FY like 2015
Originally Posted by ian001 View Post
Here's the short statement from IAG:

http://www.iairgroup.com/phoenix.zht...int&ID=2179819
It's worth noting that the full text says "... while IAG continues to expect a significant increase in operating profit this year, it no longer expects to generate an absolute operating profit increase similar to 2015."

That's not saying "we don't think our profits will increase this year".
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:50 am
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Originally Posted by origin View Post
I see it differently. I see a third runway, Cameron has no reason not to.
Cameron away in a few months, makes a 3rd runway at LHR less likely IMO.
Boris International Airport, here we come ?

edited to stay on-topic.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:53 am
  #97  
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Originally Posted by tangey View Post
Cameron away in a few months, Boris International Airport, here we come.
It will depend on who takes over. I cant see a clear choice at the moment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...ng-david-came/

Included in here is the statement about the LHR expansion. They are suggesting July 7.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:53 am
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BA should not have a business class sale. All those seats should be well sold for the next two years with lawyers and the like shuttling back and forth to redo contracts and such. Should be good business for the Eurostar too.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 3:55 am
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Originally Posted by tangey View Post
Cameron away in a few months, makes a 3rd runway at LHR less likely IMO.
Boris International Airport, here we come ?
I'm not sure there will be any money for building it!

The supposed £350 million a week in savings will probably get drastically eaten up by any downturn in the economy; and it's all been earmarked for the NHS anyway, not for vanity-driven estuary-dwelling-bird-killing projects!!
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Old Jun 24, 16, 4:01 am
  #100  
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Originally Posted by irishguy28 View Post
I'm not sure there will be any money for building it!

The supposed £350 million a week in savings will probably get drastically eaten up by any downturn in the economy; and it's all been earmarked for the NHS anyway, not for vanity-driven estuary-dwelling-bird-killing projects!!
Dr Carney has found £250 billion down the back of the BoE's sofa this morning.

Perhaps instead buying back gilts he could use his newly printed cash to invest in infrastructure projects.

Last edited by Calchas; Jun 24, 16 at 5:24 am
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Old Jun 24, 16, 4:06 am
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There is a lot of hype in the media about the fall of the pound versus the dollar this morning but the fact is that it is currently trading at about the same exchange rate as the end of February 2016. I don't recall mass hysteria four months ago that we would not be able to go on holiday or buy foreign goods any more.

Having said that, I believe the pound will take a while to recover and it may drop further over the next few days and weeks. That will hurt BA and it will hurt all of us.

Will it hurt BA in the longer term? Far too early to call in my opinion.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 4:09 am
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Originally Posted by Calchas View Post
Dr Carney has found £250 billion down the back of the BoE's sofa this morning.

Perhaps instead buying back guilts he could use his newly printed cash to invest in infrastructure projects.
LOL that has to be Freudian Typo of the Year
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Old Jun 24, 16, 4:13 am
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The problem is, this is a one-day shock as markets had started to price in a remain vote over the last few days, so not that unexpected. $1.39 could be a dead cat bounce, or it could be the start, rather than the end, of a long decline (as February was). It could of course be a temporary phenomenon with oil at $50 and sterling at $1.60 at the end of the year (although there is a pretty strong inverse correlation between sterling and oil prices when denominated in USD).

My personal feeling was that I expected it to go lower, more suddenly, so I'm feeling slightly relieved, being in the US right now.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 4:24 am
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If the UK leaves the existing EU-based traffic agreements and has to negotiate its own, it will have to offer a good deal for the other country, so traffic from their airlines too - and that would need more capacity to LHR.

So if the newly-independent, non-aligned UK government wished to have a large successful airline and related industry, and a successful BA, it would need to make more traffic capacity at LHR by building a third runway (and reducing APD).

I doubt that sort of joined up thinking would happen, unfortunately.
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Old Jun 24, 16, 4:29 am
  #105  
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If being the operative word.

I see another vote is already being petitioned for - https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215/
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