Should BA make DXB an A380 route?
 

Many of you will have seen that I have commented on the rather full cabins on my trips to Dubai and back.

It seems to be getting worse.

I have noticed a couple of times now whereby one of the two evening flights seems to vanish and passengers such as myself are moved onto the other flight a few months prior to the flight. I'm not sure if this is normal, but I'm guessing BA might be 'merging' the flights into one load or something?

The end result? At time of 'Fast' Track boarding a few weeks ago, I counted at least 100 passengers (including myself being a Bronze but also seated in J) snaking around the entire gate. In fact, there were then 2 queues formed. The other queue got fed up and started going through the agent who was meant to be handling passengers with children. The agent tried to tell one passenger they had to go into the other queue, to which the pax said "Not my problem" and had his boarding pass scanned anyway.

About 3 weeks prior to the flight, all window seats in CW for the 772 had already gone. However, I kept checking and very luckily managed to swap my aisle for a window seat as soon as it became available. At T-24, there was just 2 middle seats and 1 aisle seat available in CW. I have noticed this to be a common occurrence on this route and the lack of choice can get frustrating for some.

It's not just in CW. A couple of years ago when I used to travel in WT (before I found out about FT!), it was pretty much the same there too.

Despite the competition from a well known Dubai based airline, the flights are full, which is good from BA's perspective, but frustrating for passengers left without any choice in seating and face a slower service onboard.

This brings me onto my question - should DXB be an A380 route to ease up on the capacity issues? I heard rumours that it was on the cards but no confirmation as of yet.

If the flights are busy then BA will be delighted and Revenue Management are doing their job properly. The chances of them putting on a larger aircraft with the potential of empty seats doesn't seem likely unless they are projecting an increase in loads, or if they intend on cutting the number of flights.

If they're constantly offloading people then that would be an issue, are they?

I was a regular on the DXB and AUH runs for many years.
The cheapest Y return on BA over 10 years ago was over £770

I can buy the same ticket today for £450
Business class fares are also a lot cheaper to DXB/AUH than a comparable transatlantic.
importantly, the A380 can generate better revenue elsewhere.
BA have been using the 777 since the mid 1990s and still use the same aircraft today...
So, as much as I would like to see it,(380) I don't think it will happen.
You could try flying QR to boost your tier points and get your self up to silver.
If all else fails, when relaxing in the flat bed, you could consider what it was like when BA had 767s on the run before the cradle seat! I remember it well!

Yes, as I mentioned, it's good for BA, but my point being, could there be room for expansion given the demand? I.e., could they take on more passengers? Surely that would be better long term?

I haven't been keen on QR due to a past experience (long story) but if it helps with the current situation then will check it out. Thanks.

I didn't have a chance to use the cradle seat on the 767s, I'm guessing that's a good thing? :D

Perhaps they could have a decent lounge in Dubai before they consider upgrading the aircraft. It's a competitive route and I think BA is better focusing on the US and Far East routes until it's Club World hard product is updated.

In short, I can't see it happening. With only 4 more firm orders left, I think it's never going to happen. We already know the next two are set for twice daily MIA runs. I can also see HKG going to twice daily at some point but I don't think it's going to DXB any time soon.

However, if we do see a new CW on the A350, I'll bet that DXB will be one of the first routes.

A lounge refit is scheduled for later in 2015. It is being arranged by the same team as the did the new AMS lounge.

Hey, my regular steed to the Gulf was B767-300 G-BNWG (which was palmed off to Qantas) didn't even have cradle seats in club initially!

That is because they must compete with EK/QF which offers better frequency and a better F product.
(though I will fly BA in deep discount Y for AA miles.)
(admittedly, you get CCR access on BA but this advantage is voided with EK's better lounge at DXB.)

The question isn't simply whether the route can handle an A380 profitably, but what route a bird ought to be pulled from in order to service this one.

Let's hope there isn't another five minute exterior detour!

One thing in beautiful AMS drizzle, quite another in 45 degree searing heat.

BA will probably suggest you take them up on the "Purchase your seat in advance" option, and from what you state, in this instance it is probably worth it.

I think that high loads on DXB and AUH could be misleading sometimes as they might well be popular routes for staff travel for the following reasons:

i) DXB's tourist attractions and sunshine
ii) highly predictable traffic flows that are good for long weekends (e.g. Thursday flights eastbound will most of the time be off-peak, as will Sunday flights westbound)

Interesting thread to read while sat in the DXB lounge.

Today's 1520 to LHR is far from full in the premium cabins, 3 days out there were reward seats in F, J and W popping up and the day before the flight there were 3 F rewards seats on the 1520 and 8 on the 0220 out! I'm not sure whether the Y loads are light at the moment but I can't imagine that an A380 with more premium seats will be worthwhile for the DXB route. It is also a relatively short flight and unless the A380s go full it becomes somewhat uneconomic on a shorter route when compared to SFO and LAX for example.

The TV in the DXB lounge has BBC on and they're talking about the Air Asia flight...some worried-looking faces in here!

That's good news, definitely overdue. Would be nice to see showers there and an enhanced selection of food.

Is this likely to happen before June (or by "later in 2015" did you mean in the latter half of next year)? If the lounge needs to close temporarily, where will pax be directed?

When I first read that, I thought you were going to say that they had installed hand rails and hand straps so people could stand for the whole flight. 29" seat pitch would be a luxury then!! :D

Be very careful of your choice of words there! :o

The 777 to AUH may act as 'overspill', potentially reducing the need for more capacity.

You are quite right although in the mid 1990s the Gulf network looked like this

- LHR-BAH-AUH (daily, 767)
- LHR-DXB-MCT (daily, 767)

Then from about 1997 Dubai became a terminating service, Doha was swapped for MCT on the BAH run and MCT moved to AUH, with everything switching to a 777. Then early 2000s Dubai got a second and then a seasonal third daily. So the route and overall market has grown somewhat despite the rise of the ME3.

Shame no 747-400 to BAH any more, that was fun.

I don't think a 767 with cradles ever darkened Bahrain's door, it was all 777 by then.

Nobody wants to see 'enhanced' ;)

iii) no VAT and better prices than shops at comparable destinations i.e. HKG (and no crowded MRT due to the cheaper taxi prices.) Also much less jetlag.

That's not my experience in Dubai. Prices in the shops are roughly the same as the UK. Given that you can't take things back if they go wrong (unless you frequently go to Dubai) then it's not worth doing.
The Dubai metro is frequently packed, especially in the morning and evening rushes. At the same time taxis are very difficult to hail, depending on where you are. Both are very cheap though, but then again, they are in Hong Kong too.

Hong Kong is also a place where you can spend hours on end wandering about. If you get bored of the city you can go into the hills. In Dubai, you can go to the next shopping mall which looks exactly the same as the last and has exactly the same shops you get in the UK. If you get fed up with the city there are vast expanses of sand for you to explore. It's also difficult to happen across local eateries in Dubai.

As for jetlag, I get it worse in Dubai. It's a relatively short flight so if you take an overnighter you don't get a full night's sleep. Day flights aren't so bad though but they do mean spending an extra night away from home so I avoid them.

I've started using QR to get to DXB. First time I did it, W on BA cost more than F on QR. It's a longer flight via DOH but you get a chance to get a shower, then a decent breakfast on the hop to DXB. 270 TP vs 90 on BA each way in this case too. Fares do fluctuate a lot though, obviously.

You say :

But earlier you say :

It would suggest there is not demand if they are merging two loads onto 1 flight

Agreed. I don't think colleagues go to Dubai for the shopping. Even people that go there regularly on holiday often complain about how expensive the place has become. It's a fly and flop destination with small time change and a huge array of family friendly resort hotels that offer special rates to the travel industry.

I *think* that it will be a new lounge in Concourse D (due to open 2015). All the non-EK airlines currently in Concourse C will move to Concourse D, and A/B/C will be exclusive for EK (plus QF).

From what I hear, the A380 is limited in hold capacity, Emirates are turning away cargo from their A380 flights and BA are benefitting with both higher freight rates and higher volumes. This makes the route very profitable with existing equipment and may be another reason for BA to choose not to use A380 on this route.

EK are launching a 3rd flight to BHX this year, in addition to 3 MAN, 2 GLA, 1 NCL, 3 LGW and 5 LHR, about 4000 seats a day, plus 2 a380s on QF. BA just doesn't register.

We need to remember there are a couple options to increase capacity from a 777-200, it could go to a 777-300 or 747 for an increase rather than the massive increase the A380 gives

To be fair, Emirates is carrying passengers to Dubai and beyond whilst BA's aircraft by-and-large serves Dubai and the nearby emirates alone.

BA has 625 seats per day each way ("PDEW") to Dubai in the summer and 905 PDEW in the winter. Then there are 280 a day to Kuwait, another 280 to Bahrain and Doha and a further 280 to Abu Dhabi and Muscat. Saudi Arabia has 280 PDEW to Jeddah and 252 PDEW to Riyadh. That makes 1,997 seats to the Gulf every day in summer and 2,277 in winter.

If we allocate approximately one third of Emirates' capacity to Dubai and another fifth to the Gulf then that gives between 1,300 and 1,400 origin-destination seats and a further 800 London-Gulf seats.

Which makes Emirates' total Gulf capacity ex-UK 2,100 to 2,200 seats PDEW, only 10% more than BA's summer capacity and approximately the same as BA's winter capacity.

Very true, so many pax that once would use BA in the winter from their Cheshire homes to the sunny wine estates of Stellenbosh et al skip the APD and shuttle to LHR and use T1 at MAN instead via DXB. Difference in arrival times is often circa 2-3 hours, which given 747 tech delays, is the difference of a photo finish. By a nose you might say ;)

You'd pay the same APD via DXB or via LHR (or indeed via AMS, FRA, DOH or anywhere else.

Apd is a pittance compared with the cost of a business class flight too - 5% maximum.

If EK did premium economy there's a good chance is fly with them 75% of the time